Circular Migration: The Unseen Return Contract in Spain

Circular migration: The unseen contract and the promised return

Circular migration works. That is the official thesis: the worker arrives with a contract, covers the season, and returns to their country when the paper expires. This scheme underpins the agreements the government negotiates with countries of origin, with Mauritania at the center of the agenda. The problem begins where it always does: in the contract, the fine print, and who signs it. Because circularity has a condition that allows no shortcuts: if the return is not guaranteed, it ceases to be circular and becomes something else.

What circular migration is and what it requires

It is defined as temporary migratory movement — labor, educational, or family — in which the person returns to their place of origin. It is not a Spanish invention: proponents of the model cite Saudi Arabia and Qatar, where the foreign worker cannot settle and leaves the country when the work ends. “There, they do not allow those who come to work to stay. Once they finish, they are sent away,” summarizes this current. The question is whether this scheme is transplantable to a labor market with another structure of rights and another demography.

There is a second requirement that is almost never discussed: circularity needs an identifiable employer and a calendar. Without these two things, there is no temporary migration, just migration plain and simple.

What will they work on and with what contract?

The central objection is this, and no one has resolved it: not a single contract with an entry and exit date appears. It is asked, with a hint of irony, in which sector, in which province, and with which company. The context that is managed worsens the doubt: a country with more than 20% unemployment and the highest unemployment in its surroundings, where, according to one participant, only a minimal part of those who arrive end up as seasonal workers. If the argument is that they come to work, the logical question is what job the national market does not cover.

In response, the official answer is the same as always: hands are needed in sectors with a shortage of candidates, and the return is controlled. This reasoning clashes with an administrative detail: the return is not controlled with good intentions, it is controlled with contracts and dates.

From Lampedusa to the Canary Islands: the diversion effect

It is argued that migration agreements do not close routes, they displace them. The pact between Italy and Algeria — with Lampedusa as the stage — would have reduced arrivals through that route and diverted part of the flow to the Atlantic, with the Canary Islands as the entry point. On the ground, a system of mother ships is described that brings vessels to international waters, where the rescue takes place; the circulating proposal is to monitor those waters and return the occupants, so that the route ceases to be profitable. It is also asked whether Spain imitates Meloni by negotiating with third countries instead of closing borders. The final destination, they joke, is the same.

Some voices add a commercial trick: closing the land passage through the peninsula increases the cost of African exports and forces Europe to get involved.

Employment data and benefits discussed

Here it is important to separate data from narrative. What is repeated with the appearance of a figure is that the unemployment rate of the immigrant population doubles the national average, in a country with the highest unemployment in its surroundings. What is attributed to a Danish study — that most do not work and that the balance of benefits and contributions is negative — is cited without a link or detail, and therefore functions as an argument, not as evidence. It is important to say it clearly.

Another block of assertions, more difficult to verify, describes combining minimum incomes with undeclared jobs and street vending outside the municipality where the benefit is collected. These are one-sided stories, without public verification. What is repeated, based on the conversation, is the change in landscape described by those who take the metro at six in the morning.

Fiscal cost and debt scenario

The other angle is accounting. One participant recalls that Spain carries high debt and depends on the European framework resisting without needing bailouts. In this scenario, it is argued, any flow that does not contribute or produce becomes a liability that must be financed every month: health, school, housing, and benefits. This is not a one-year calculation, but one over a decade.

There is also a demographic background that sneaks into the conversation: aging, low birth rates, and pressure on public services in municipalities that are no longer growing. The diagnosis is not disputed. What is disputed is whether the correct response is to bring temporary workers or to change economic policy.

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One can expect that the agreement will advance and that the word circular will remain in the headlines. One can also expect that no one will show the contract. If entry and exit dates appear, verifiable, with identified companies, the discussion will deflate on its own. If they do not appear, the label will be exactly that: a label.