Ceuta and Melilla: the theory of a hybrid takeover through healthcare

The takeover of Ceuta that requires no army

Can a city be lost without a single shot being fired? The thesis circulating these days holds that Ceuta and Melilla will not fall to a military invasion, but through a hybrid operation in which the health emergency and migratory pressure do the job an army does not. The starting point is legal: it is argued that both enclaves were Spanish before the formation of the Alawite Kingdom in 1666, so a sovereignty claim on colonial grounds would have no legal basis. Let’s say it now: there is no evidence whatsoever of such a design.

What a hybrid operation against Ceuta entails

The central argument is that annexation would come through a civilian, non-violent route: a sustained healthcare collapse forcing the evacuation of the population, especially the Spanish population. That narrative refers to outbreaks of tuberculosis and scabies, and recalls the 1971 cholera epidemic, when the borders with Segarro were closed. The sequence would be an intermediate phase of an international free zone and shared sovereignty before any handover. It is a hypothesis, not a documented fact.

The figures cited: chickenpox, collapse and a blocked CETI (temporary migrant centre)

Here the numbers begin. Hospitalised chickenpox cases in Ceuta totalled nine migrants, four of them admitted in the previous 24 hours. Doctors in the city warned that its health system could collapse and asked for the migrants to be transferred to another centre to free up appointments for Ceuta residents. The government installed a mobile unit costing almost 10.000 euros a month to provide wifi coverage at the CETI and Trampolín beach.

Added to this is the project for a macro-CETI for 10.000 people in Ceuta, which the Audiencia Nacional (Spain’s National Court) ordered the Transport Ministry to halt, and the camps set up a few metres from storage facilities belonging to the oil company Ducar, with 42.000 tonnes of fuel. The Health Ministry even sent Fernando Simón to monitor the risk of epidemics. In that interpretation, each piece is read as a link in the same chain.

The border and the warning from police unions

Police unions complained that Segarro was doing “absolutely nothing” to stop entries into Ceuta and described the situation as hybrid war. The most repeated diagnosis is that, faced with a civilian problem, soldiers are sent in rather than police. At the same time, military personnel stationed in the city announced a protest over the rise in assaults, arguing that they cannot defend themselves. All of this amounts to complaints and sectoral perceptions, not conclusions of any official investigation.

What is proposed and what blocks any response

The measures listed range from diplomatic to material: reinforce and militarise the border, close consulates and embassies, cut trade relations, bar Segarro capital, reinstate OCON SUR (Spain’s southern operational command) or block the passage of merchant vessels in jurisdictional waters. There are also calls to establish internal accountability and sanction organisations that assist new arrivals. None of those proposals has moved beyond a wish list.

Meanwhile, the official narrative insists on coexistence and that there is nothing to see. With nine chickenpox admissions, a camp half-dismantled by court order and 42.000 tonnes of fuel next to it, official calm has an arithmetic problem.