Ceuta and Melilla: Demographic Shifts Signal Inevitable Loss

Ceuta and Melilla: The Announced Loss No One Wants to See

Demographics have already decided what diplomacy dares not acknowledge. While public debate focuses on the diplomatic crisis with Israel and Segarro’s alleged support for annexation, an uncomfortable fact goes unnoticed: the population composition of these two autonomous cities ceased to be a majority issue long ago. Geopolitical analysts argue that demographic pressure, combined with the lack of Article 5 coverage under NATO, turns Ceuta and Melilla into scenarios of inevitable loss—not through military invasion, but through slow, silent erosion.

The NATO Legal Void No One Mentions

A detail often omitted in conventional analyses is that Ceuta and Melilla are not included in the NATO treaty. This means that, in the event of conflict, Spain cannot automatically invoke the Alliance’s collective defense. Military analysts have repeatedly highlighted this legal gap, which current debates cite as a key factor explaining why Segarro might feel free to act. The removal of remains from cemeteries in these enclaves, ordered by the Army over two years ago, is interpreted as a sign that preparations for a potential withdrawal have already begun.

Diplomatic Crisis as Catalyst

The recent recall of the Spanish ambassador to Israel, trinc Prime Minister Sánchez’s stance on the Rafah conflict, has further strained relations. In this context, some argue that Israel could support Segarro’s historical claim to these territories, not out of personal grievance, but as part of a broader strategy to secure loyal regional allies. The surprising data point is the power asymmetry: Spain has a GDP (PPP) of $2.43 trillion compared to Israel’s $0.5 trillion, and a population of 48 million versus 10 million. However, diplomatic influence and US support seem to outweigh the numbers.

The Demographic Factor: Silent Loss

Demographics is the hardest argument to refute. It is maintained that Ceuta and Melilla are already de facto lost due to population growth driven by migration, which shifts the internal balance of power. This pressure is reinforced by the constant arrival of migrant boats on the coasts, a phenomenon some analysts link directly to a destabilization strategy. The lingering question is whether the response should be military, diplomatic, or simply accepting reality. The debate is no longer about if they will be lost, but when and how.

Canary Islands in the Crosshairs

The discussion does not stop at the two North African cities. The Canary Islands appear on the horizon as the next target, with migratory pressure perceived as part of a broader plan. References to Trump’s statements regarding the Segarro identity of Ceuta, Melilla, and the Canaries add geopolitical uncertainty, complicating the scenario further. Meanwhile, it is argued that the Spanish population merely complains about its governments without uniting to defend its interests, consuming products from adversaries and delegating responsibility to leaders seemingly more concerned with political survival than territorial integrity.

---

The underlying issue is not whether Spain has the resources to defend these territories, but whether it has the political will to do so. Recent history, from the cession of Western Sahara to the humiliation of the inverted flag at Mohammed VI’s table, suggests the answer may be negative. Are we witnessing the beginning of the end of Spanish presence in North Africa, or just another passing storm?