César Vidal and the Israeli leak: 157,000 Ukrainian dead versus 18,000 Russians
A tweet attributes to an Israeli leak 157,000 Ukrainian dead against 18,000 Russian. The ratio is so extreme that even skeptics are doubtful.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
157,000 Ukrainian dead and 18,000 Russians: the leak that breaks the narrative
A tweet attributed to César Vidal puts the war at 157,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, 234,000 wounded and 17,230 prisoners, against 18,480 Russians killed, 44,500 wounded and 323 prisoners. The source invoked is an Israeli leak. And that's where the problem begins: nobody in the available material shows the document. The ratio — almost nine Ukrainian casualties for every Russian one — is so extreme that even those who distrust the official story raise an eyebrow.
The text circulates as a weapon in the middle of a war of attrition. The thesis accompanying it is that NATO and EU propaganda works like a cult, that Europeans live in an alternative world and that the Ukrainian army is exhausted. Within that framework, the Israeli leak is presented as the proof that exposes the deception. The question hanging in the air: why would Israel leak this?
Why Russia's casualty figures don't add up for almost anyone
The most repeated argument doesn't attack the source, it attacks the arithmetic. 18,480 Russian dead in a war of positions and attrition, with Russia holding the initiative much of the time, is hard to sustain. Offensives are paid for in blood, and whoever advances usually pays more. Some point out that Russia has carried out mobilizations of hundreds of thousands of men: if casualties were those figures, they wouldn't have been needed.
The material calculation doesn't fit either. The claim is 6,320 Ukrainian tanks destroyed versus 889 Russian ones, and 514 aircraft versus 79. With three crew members per vehicle, Russian armored losses confirmed visually alone would exceed 18,000 dead. The numbers don't add up anywhere, and that's the point where skeptics on both sides agree.
The missing: the figure nobody counts
The most technical objection is that the figures only include identified bodies. A huge percentage of the missing are dead and don't appear in any count. If they were added, the Ukrainian figure could double. It's the argument repeated to explain why real numbers always exceed official ones, in any war and on any side.
On the other side, the disproportion in prisoners is jarring: 17,230 Ukrainians versus 323 Russians. One reading suggests Russia keeps its captives alive and Ukraine doesn't. Another, more prosaic one, points to the fact that Russians simply don't surrender en masse. Neither can be verified with what's on the table.
Von der Leyen and the BBC: the figures already circulating
The leak doesn't arrive in a vacuum. It's recalled that the President of the European Commission spoke in November of more than 100,000 Ukrainian dead and that the BBC published a similar figure at the end of January. If those references are true, the 157,000 wouldn't be an exaggeration, but an update. That's the flank through which the leak gains credibility.
The quality of the Ukrainian soldier is also cited as a variable explaining the attrition: recruits captured off the street and sent to the front within a week don't last long. Counteroffensives ordered for propaganda reasons against fortified Russian positions are described as massacres of armored vehicles and infantry. Trench warfare, in the end, is won by whoever has the howitzers.
The Russian army that barely fights
The explanation given for such low Russian casualties lies in the composition of the forces. The bulk of the fighting would have been done first by the Donbas militias and later by assault groups, with Russian artillery and aviation striking from afar and suffering few losses. Special units rarely entering into contact. If that's the case, 18,000 dead stop being absurd and become a logical consequence.
The problem is that this same logic would admit far higher figures without blinking. The fog of war is not dispelled by a tweet.
What if the leak exists and doesn't say what it's claimed to say? What if the real ratio lies at some intermediate point nobody has an interest in publishing? With two armies counting their own dead and some twenty governments counting everyone else's, the only certainty is that the exact figure is known by nobody willing to say it.
A tweet attributed to César Vidal puts the war at 157,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, 234,000 wounded and 17,230 prisoners, against 18,480 Russians killed, 44,500 wounded and 323 prisoners. The source invoked is an Israeli leak. And that's where the problem begins: nobody in the available material shows the document. The ratio — almost nine Ukrainian casualties for every Russian one — is so extreme that even those who distrust the official story raise an eyebrow.
The text circulates as a weapon in the middle of a war of attrition. The thesis accompanying it is that NATO and EU propaganda works like a cult, that Europeans live in an alternative world and that the Ukrainian army is exhausted. Within that framework, the Israeli leak is presented as the proof that exposes the deception. The question hanging in the air: why would Israel leak this?
Why Russia's casualty figures don't add up for almost anyone
The most repeated argument doesn't attack the source, it attacks the arithmetic. 18,480 Russian dead in a war of positions and attrition, with Russia holding the initiative much of the time, is hard to sustain. Offensives are paid for in blood, and whoever advances usually pays more. Some point out that Russia has carried out mobilizations of hundreds of thousands of men: if casualties were those figures, they wouldn't have been needed.
The material calculation doesn't fit either. The claim is 6,320 Ukrainian tanks destroyed versus 889 Russian ones, and 514 aircraft versus 79. With three crew members per vehicle, Russian armored losses confirmed visually alone would exceed 18,000 dead. The numbers don't add up anywhere, and that's the point where skeptics on both sides agree.
The missing: the figure nobody counts
The most technical objection is that the figures only include identified bodies. A huge percentage of the missing are dead and don't appear in any count. If they were added, the Ukrainian figure could double. It's the argument repeated to explain why real numbers always exceed official ones, in any war and on any side.
On the other side, the disproportion in prisoners is jarring: 17,230 Ukrainians versus 323 Russians. One reading suggests Russia keeps its captives alive and Ukraine doesn't. Another, more prosaic one, points to the fact that Russians simply don't surrender en masse. Neither can be verified with what's on the table.
Von der Leyen and the BBC: the figures already circulating
The leak doesn't arrive in a vacuum. It's recalled that the President of the European Commission spoke in November of more than 100,000 Ukrainian dead and that the BBC published a similar figure at the end of January. If those references are true, the 157,000 wouldn't be an exaggeration, but an update. That's the flank through which the leak gains credibility.
The quality of the Ukrainian soldier is also cited as a variable explaining the attrition: recruits captured off the street and sent to the front within a week don't last long. Counteroffensives ordered for propaganda reasons against fortified Russian positions are described as massacres of armored vehicles and infantry. Trench warfare, in the end, is won by whoever has the howitzers.
The Russian army that barely fights
The explanation given for such low Russian casualties lies in the composition of the forces. The bulk of the fighting would have been done first by the Donbas militias and later by assault groups, with Russian artillery and aviation striking from afar and suffering few losses. Special units rarely entering into contact. If that's the case, 18,000 dead stop being absurd and become a logical consequence.
The problem is that this same logic would admit far higher figures without blinking. The fog of war is not dispelled by a tweet.
What if the leak exists and doesn't say what it's claimed to say? What if the real ratio lies at some intermediate point nobody has an interest in publishing? With two armies counting their own dead and some twenty governments counting everyone else's, the only certainty is that the exact figure is known by nobody willing to say it.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (71 replies).
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