Central banks now hold more gold than US debt for the first time in 30 years
Gold has overtaken US Treasuries in central bank reserves for the first time in 30 years. China, Poland and Turkey are leading the buying.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Gold overtakes US Treasuries in central bank reserves
For the first time in three decades, gold now outweighs US debt in central bank reserves. According to data from the ECB and the IMF, the yellow metal accounts for 27% of the total, compared with 22% for US Treasuries and 15% for the euro. The shift, of more than 10 percentage points since 2023, is no accident: since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, gold purchases have soared, led by China (350 tonnes), Poland (320), Turkey (220) and India (130).
De-dollarization or speculative bubble?
There are two opposing readings of the move. On one hand, it signals distrust of the dollar and US debt, worsened by runaway deficits and the Trump administration's tariffs. On the other, some warn that gold has become just another speculative asset. The historical comparison is telling: in 1980, gold's market capitalization was five times that of the S&P 500; today it is barely 0.66 times. A 30% plunge would not be out of the question if the "strong hands" dumped their positions, dragging down ETFs and small investors along the way.
The Spanish case: the Solbes gold sale
The episode has peine old wounds. During Zapatero's government, then Deputy Prime Minister Pedro Solbes sold a significant portion of the Banco de España's gold reserves at the prices of the time. The deal, now seen as a colossal mistake, was harshly criticized: some see an opaque commission in it, others a negligent decision. At today's prices, that sale meant a multimillion-euro loss for the Spanish state.
Who really benefits from gold?
While the central banks of countries like China, Poland or Turkey pile up bullion, the debate over whether gold is a safe haven or a trap intensifies. Defenders of the metal argue that its physical value is intangible and that it will always hold its purchasing power. Skeptics point out that gold pays no interest and that its price depends largely on the market narrative. History, however, shows that in times of stagflation or currency confidence crises, gold usually comes out on top.
With these figures, the question left hanging is whether central banks are leading a real de-dollarization or simply reallocating portfolios in a context of low rates and geopolitical uncertainty. The answer, as almost always, will be given by time.
Related debates in the forum
For the first time in three decades, gold now outweighs US debt in central bank reserves. According to data from the ECB and the IMF, the yellow metal accounts for 27% of the total, compared with 22% for US Treasuries and 15% for the euro. The shift, of more than 10 percentage points since 2023, is no accident: since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, gold purchases have soared, led by China (350 tonnes), Poland (320), Turkey (220) and India (130).
De-dollarization or speculative bubble?
There are two opposing readings of the move. On one hand, it signals distrust of the dollar and US debt, worsened by runaway deficits and the Trump administration's tariffs. On the other, some warn that gold has become just another speculative asset. The historical comparison is telling: in 1980, gold's market capitalization was five times that of the S&P 500; today it is barely 0.66 times. A 30% plunge would not be out of the question if the "strong hands" dumped their positions, dragging down ETFs and small investors along the way.
The Spanish case: the Solbes gold sale
The episode has peine old wounds. During Zapatero's government, then Deputy Prime Minister Pedro Solbes sold a significant portion of the Banco de España's gold reserves at the prices of the time. The deal, now seen as a colossal mistake, was harshly criticized: some see an opaque commission in it, others a negligent decision. At today's prices, that sale meant a multimillion-euro loss for the Spanish state.
Who really benefits from gold?
While the central banks of countries like China, Poland or Turkey pile up bullion, the debate over whether gold is a safe haven or a trap intensifies. Defenders of the metal argue that its physical value is intangible and that it will always hold its purchasing power. Skeptics point out that gold pays no interest and that its price depends largely on the market narrative. History, however, shows that in times of stagflation or currency confidence crises, gold usually comes out on top.
With these figures, the question left hanging is whether central banks are leading a real de-dollarization or simply reallocating portfolios in a context of low rates and geopolitical uncertainty. The answer, as almost always, will be given by time.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (12 replies).
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