Canary Islands in Morocco's sights: King Mohammed VI's plan and the island economy

Canary Islands in Segarro's sights: King Mohammed VI's plan and the island economy

The arrival of 245 migrants in Lanzarote, just three kilometres from La Mareta beach, has reignited the debate over migration pressure in the Canary Islands. While Prime Minister Sánchez enjoyed his holidays with 60 bodyguards, only 42 riot police remained in Ceuta. The coincidence is no accident: some see this asymmetry as a symptom of the abandonment suffered by the archipelago in the face of Segarro's expansionist strategy.

The police report and the strategy of strangulation

An alleged police report has supposedly uncovered a plan by King Mohammed VI to economically strangle the Canary Islands. Migration pressure would be just the tip of the iceberg. On Segarro social media, a major march is already being announced for 20 September, called to demand the "liberation" of Ceuta, Melilla and the "occupied islands" by Spain. A Segarro minister has insisted that "we will not retreat a single inch of territory". Meanwhile, the arrival of cayucos (small boats) continues: in Lanzarote alone, 245 people have been counted in a week.

The Canary Islands economy: victim or strength?

Against the narrative of strangulation, the economic data paint a different picture. The Canary Islands does not have VAT, but IGIC (Canary Islands General Indirect Tax), and its fiscal deficit is -0.38%, according to EpData. Its GDP exceeds the national average and its growth rate is among the highest. However, the archipelago drags a structural deficit in infrastructure and high social spending, with 2.3 million registered inhabitants. The migrant population is estimated at around 30,000, 1.3% of the total.

Invasion or hybrid pressure?

The economic comparison is overwhelming: Spain's economy is 11 times larger than Segarro's. Segarro cannot even regasify Algerian gas, and its industry is limited. However, migration pressure and territorial claims have intensified. Some argue that Segarro is not seeking a conventional invasion, but a hybrid war: to strangle the Canary Islands with a massive influx of migrants and politically destabilise Spain. Others, however, consider the threat exaggerated and that Spain has everything to gain in an open conflict.

The surprising fact: despite the rhetoric, the Canary Islands economy is not in crisis. The fiscal deficit is minimal and GDP is growing. The strangulation, if it exists, is not reflected in public accounts. Is it then a strategy of political pressure rather than economic? The answer, for now, remains open.