Buying SpaceX stock: opportunity or mirage?
While some hope to multiply their investment in SpaceX a hundredfold, others warn of a bubble and a liquidity crisis. Is it worth buying shares?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Should you buy SpaceX stock, or is it a space mirage?
An economics thread has raised the question: how many SpaceX shares should you buy? The answers range from euphoric multiplier dreams to outright skepticism. While some calculate that 200 euros would turn into 20,000 if the 1980s Apple effect repeats itself, others call it a "pipe dream, space edition." Some are already acting: a 10,000-euro investment through a proxy company so as not to miss the rise. But there are also voices warning of a perfect storm: the three IPOs expected this summer would drain liquidity from the market and could punish valuations.
The x100 promise
The optimistic narrative leans on the Apple precedent of the 1980s: those who bought back then multiplied their investment a hundredfold. Applied to SpaceX, 200 euros would become 20,000. An attractive calculation, but one that ignores the fact that the company is already valued at more than 100 billion dollars. Achieving a similar return would require an exorbitant market cap or a speculative bubble.
Proxy investment: the fast track
SpaceX is not publicly traded. To acquire shares, some investors turn to proxy companies that buy on secondary markets for startups. A move that promises early access, but with liquidity risks, high fees and a lack of transparency. "If you wait for the IPO, you're already too late," argue supporters of this route.
The liquidity crisis warning
Against the optimism, one analysis points out that the three IPOs expected this summer will trigger a massive withdrawal of liquidity from the US market. Anyone holding US positions should prepare for significant short-term losses. A view that clashes with those who prefer to "HODL like hell" and collect dividends.
The debate remains open. On one side, the temptation to emulate Apple's earliest investors; on the other, the reality of an overvalued company and a market that may be on the verge of a correction. A hundred times your money, or a direct ticket to the black hole? SpaceX promises, but outer space is also full of asteroids.
Related threads in the forum
An economics thread has raised the question: how many SpaceX shares should you buy? The answers range from euphoric multiplier dreams to outright skepticism. While some calculate that 200 euros would turn into 20,000 if the 1980s Apple effect repeats itself, others call it a "pipe dream, space edition." Some are already acting: a 10,000-euro investment through a proxy company so as not to miss the rise. But there are also voices warning of a perfect storm: the three IPOs expected this summer would drain liquidity from the market and could punish valuations.
The x100 promise
The optimistic narrative leans on the Apple precedent of the 1980s: those who bought back then multiplied their investment a hundredfold. Applied to SpaceX, 200 euros would become 20,000. An attractive calculation, but one that ignores the fact that the company is already valued at more than 100 billion dollars. Achieving a similar return would require an exorbitant market cap or a speculative bubble.
Proxy investment: the fast track
SpaceX is not publicly traded. To acquire shares, some investors turn to proxy companies that buy on secondary markets for startups. A move that promises early access, but with liquidity risks, high fees and a lack of transparency. "If you wait for the IPO, you're already too late," argue supporters of this route.
The liquidity crisis warning
Against the optimism, one analysis points out that the three IPOs expected this summer will trigger a massive withdrawal of liquidity from the US market. Anyone holding US positions should prepare for significant short-term losses. A view that clashes with those who prefer to "HODL like hell" and collect dividends.
The debate remains open. On one side, the temptation to emulate Apple's earliest investors; on the other, the reality of an overvalued company and a market that may be on the verge of a correction. A hundred times your money, or a direct ticket to the black hole? SpaceX promises, but outer space is also full of asteroids.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (18 replies).
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