BRICS and the Dollar: A Recurring Power Struggle Since 2009

BRICS and the Dollar: A Recurring Power Struggle Since 2009

The idea that BRICS nations will completely abandon the US dollar within three years is the latest rumor circulating in economic circles. This news, amplified by an economic information channel, has reignited the debate on the end of greenback hegemony. It is not a new topic. Since the group's founding in 2009, the same refrain resurfaces periodically: claims that the petrodollar is collapsing, that emerging countries will create their own currency, or that the West is knocked out. The novelty this time is the context: a war in Europe, persistent inflation, and a club that has expanded from five to ten members.

The Petrodollar: A Fifty-Year Contract

The origin lies in an agreement that reached its half-century mark: the one tying oil sales to the dollar. According to financial circles, Saudi Arabia may not have renewed its contract with the United States. That pact, in force since the 1970s, required crude oil purchases in dollars and sustained global demand for the currency. Without it, the structure wobbles. "The claim that Arab nations will stop selling oil in dollars is even older; we've been hearing it since the euro launched in 1999," notes a skeptic. The date is significant: the euro was born, in part, to challenge that dominance.

However, the non-renewal of the agreement does not miccionan the dollar disappears from transactions. It means it ceases to be mandatory. That is the sustancia ilegal. Producing countries can choose the currency for settlement. China, for instance, has been signing contracts in yuan with Saudi Arabia and other producers for years. The move is not new, but it is accelerating.

What Is the Dollar's Real Weight in Global Reserves?

Analyst data places the dollar as a reserve currency at around 60% of global official foreign exchange holdings. The euro represents approximately 20.5%. These figures seem immovable at first glance. But the euro's 20.5% share is already substantial, as one analyst points out, considering it applies globally. The question is whether that 60% can erode in three years. The short answer is no. The long answer is that the trend matters more than the timeframe.

"The dollar is a fiat currency without backing; it holds value simply because it holds value," states another commentator. The assertion is debatable but reflects underlying unease: US federal debt exceeds $34 trillion, and interest costs could double by 2041, according to cited articles. This deficit spiral is the argument used by pessimists to justify decline. "It is not just that the debt is unpayable, but that the union's finances are broken," adds another.

The Single Currency Trap: No One Wants to Cede Control

The real obstacle for the BRICS project is not the West, but the bloc itself. "No country wants to be a trade, reference, or reserve currency. Being a reserve currency implies limitations and conditions that only one member can meet but refuses to accept: China," notes an analysis. It is the classic balance-of-power problem. A common currency requires giving up money-printing capabilities, ceding monetary sovereignty, and accepting fiscal rules. No government agrees to this unless offered something very large in return.

Meanwhile, the club's expansion is a fact. From five members in 2009, it grew to ten in 2024, with around forty countries showing interest in joining, to the point where applications were paused due to overload. "In their report, BRICS+ states they represent nearly half the world population and 40% of global GDP," summarizes a participant. These figures are impressive, though it is worth remembering that GDP is measured in dollars—the very currency they wish to abandon.

Will There Be a War for Monetary Control?

The shadow of armed conflict looms over the debate. "The immense US military exists to protect the economic system underpinning the dollar. If major powers exit the system, it sets a bad precedent they cannot tolerate," argues one message. This is the thesis of an empire that refuses to lose hegemony. Others go further, claiming World War III is inevitable and sides are being chosen. However, history offers examples of monetary transitions without catastrophe: the decline of the British pound after World War II did not trigger a global conflict, although many local conflicts arose.

What seems clear is that the process will not take three years. "When BRICS sign a binding military alliance, come back and tell us. When they give up their printing presses to adopt a common currency, come back and tell us," challenges a skeptic. The ball is in BRICS' court. And the roof has many tiles.

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Analysis stalls on one point: no one knows what happens when the dollar ceases to be indispensable. Some believe it marks the end of the West. Others argue the dollar is metastatic cancer that cannot be removed without killing the patient. The only certainty is that the three-year clock has started ticking. Whether anyone is watching is another matter.