Brent at $100 and diesel climbing: peak oil is back on the table

Brent at $100 and diesel soaring: the scarcity some call artificial

With Brent hovering around $100 and diesel heading towards two euros a litre at many stations, the awkward question is back: are we running out of oil, or is it being rationed? The immediate trigger is not geological. It is a conflict in the Persian Gulf that has blocked part of the global distribution of crude, with one country cutting routes that carry up to a quarter of the world's supply, according to claims made in the debate. From there, the diagnosis splits in two.

Some argue that peak oil is a fact and that this decade's wars are the first sign that there is no longer enough pie to go around. Opposing them is the counter-argument: the fields in Russia and the Gulf remain plentiful, and what is failing is access, not production. The scarcity, they say, is entirely artificial.

Why diesel is rising if crude is not scarce

The first focus of the disagreement is at the refinery, not the well. Europe's major oil companies have stopped investing in exploration and new refineries: these are enormous investments that only pay off over decades, and with the EU bent on killing off fossil fuels the maths no longer add up, as some participants argue. The warning hanging over the conversation is that when they also stop maintaining existing refineries, the problem will be a different one. The destruction of facilities by the war adds pressure to a system that is already stretched.

Add to that the statistical effect that puts headlines in perspective. A price of $100 today is not the same as in 2008: in real terms it sits in the range of the $50-60 of back then, when the barrel rose above $140, according to a calculation circulating in the thread. The figure is less impressive than it seems. Less impressive, yes, but you pay it all the same at the pump.

The ECB, interest rates and the deception of the taxpayer

The second layer of the problem is monetary. With oil on the rise and the conflict showing no signs of resolution, the market is anticipating two more rate hikes this year by the ECB, according to the news cited in the debate. The official reasoning: contain prices so that money buys more. The reasoning from the street: if rates go up, states finance their debt more expensively, and since they are unwilling to cut spending, the bill arrives via taxes. The citizen, always the one rowing.

Public debt is starting to feel it. The French ten-year bond is already flirting with 4%, and that is the kind of signal that precedes uncomfortable decisions. Meanwhile, the official narrative keeps blaming the ordinary motorist: vans, unnecessary deliveries. 70% of Spain's GDP moves by road, as stated in the thread, so the sermon about sustainable sharing does not lower Brent by a single cent.

The 2030 Agenda and the limits to growth

The third front is ideological, and that is where the tone heats up. Part of the analysis holds that the 2030 Agenda is a response to precisely this: managing the scarcity that was seen coming since the seventies, since the limits-to-growth manifesto. The conclusion drawn is grim: Western civilization reaching the precipice and fighting over what is left. It is a thesis, not a fact, and should be treated as such.

Another current reduces it to the immediate: no peak oil, no agenda, what there is is a logistics bottleneck and an energy policy that scares off investment. Two narratives that never touch.

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The price of diesel at any given station in the capital, at 1.87 euros a litre, is the only figure both sides agree on. Everything else —whether oil is running out or simply being hidden from us— remains unanswered. And the pump does not wait for consensus.