Brazil: what could happen in Spain
Lula won the Brazilian runoff by 3.4 points over Bolsonaro after his vote rose by almost 20%. The precedent fuels doubts about polls and the electoral roll in Spain.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Lula's victory in Brazil, with an upset that the polls did not anticipate, has revived the debate about the reliability of surveys and trust in electoral bodies, an issue that also looms over Spain's upcoming elections.
The second round of the Brazilian elections produced a result that many polls had not predicted. **Lula da Silva** defeated **Jair Bolsonaro** by **3.4 percentage points**, a margin that, with only two candidates in the race, is considerable. The day before, several polling firms gave the right-wing candidate a lead of between two and five points, while only one gave **1.5 points** of margin to the winner. The gap between what was predicted and what peine is the starting point of a broader discussion about how voting intention is measured and to what extent polls shape the perception of a result's legitimacy.
## The upset in the Brazilian runoff
The vote-counting figures fuel suspicions. Turnout fell from **21.08%** to **19.2%** abstention, according to the Superior Electoral Court, which means **1.88 points** more participation and **2,723,008 additional votes**. Lula's growth between the two rounds was **4.75%** of the votes, that is, **10,385,508 more voters**. His rival also grew, by around **6.6%**. The question hanging in the air is where those millions of voters came from who had not supported the Workers' Party candidate in the first round.
There is one detail that adds fuel to the fire: the extension of voting hours by two extra hours, a decision adopted after a request from a judge who had previously been Lula's lawyer. For some analysts, this kind of institutional decision, combined with the jumps in turnout, paints a picture that is hard to reconcile with consolidated democracies. The comparison with other countries in the region, such as **Peru** or **Colombia**, where the left was defeated by narrow margins, serves as a contrast.
## Polls, the electoral roll and postal voting: the doubts reaching Spain
The Brazilian case has become a mirror for those who already distrusted Spain's electoral mechanisms. Doubts pile up on three fronts: the electoral roll, postal voting and the **CERA** vote, that of residents abroad. These are issues that, if not cleared up, could lead all actors to contest the result: both those who have generated the suspicions and those who feel victimized by them. A scenario that some describe as hellish and that erodes trust in the system.
The **Junta Electoral Central** (Spain's central electoral board) appears in this context as the ultimate arbiter. It is a body made up of low-profile judges, almost anonymous to the general public, which until now has not made front pages. The expectation is that, with general elections approaching, that anonymity will be broken and its members will come under close scrutiny. The pressure on them will be at its peak, and their ability to withstand it will be decisive.
## The precedent of the audience figures and the suspicion of a miracle
Distrust is not limited to the ballot box. In Spanish public debate, a figure has circulated that is used as an example of what some consider a pattern: the **258%** overnight growth in the audience of a television program, while its competitors lost no viewers. The comparison with the biblical story of the loaves and fishes is no accident. It is a way of pointing out that, for part of opinion, certain abrupt shifts in support or in audience figures cannot be explained by the normal evolution of public opinion.
Electoral trends, skeptics argue, rarely change radically. When they do, and this also coincides with controversial institutional decisions or atypical variations in turnout, suspicion takes hold. The left, according to this reading, has a surprising ability to mobilize support at the last moment. And that, transferred to Spain, generates concern about the fairness of the next elections.
## Trust in the system at stake
The debate goes beyond the Brazilian case. What is at issue is trust in the institutions that manage electoral processes and in the instruments that measure public opinion. If polls fail systematically, if the electoral roll raises doubts, and if postal voting or the overseas residents' vote offers no clear guarantees, the result of any election is exposed to challenge. And on that ground, everyone loses: winners and losers alike.
The **Junta Electoral Central** has the task of clearing up these doubts ahead of it. Its actions, and those of the media that scrutinize the process, will determine whether the next election result in Spain is accepted without reservations or becomes a new chapter in a distrust that is no longer limited to Brazil. The comparison with the South American country is not gratuitous: there, an upset of almost **20 points** in the runoff has been enough for millions of people to view the ballot boxes with suspicion.
The second round of the Brazilian elections produced a result that many polls had not predicted. **Lula da Silva** defeated **Jair Bolsonaro** by **3.4 percentage points**, a margin that, with only two candidates in the race, is considerable. The day before, several polling firms gave the right-wing candidate a lead of between two and five points, while only one gave **1.5 points** of margin to the winner. The gap between what was predicted and what peine is the starting point of a broader discussion about how voting intention is measured and to what extent polls shape the perception of a result's legitimacy.
## The upset in the Brazilian runoff
The vote-counting figures fuel suspicions. Turnout fell from **21.08%** to **19.2%** abstention, according to the Superior Electoral Court, which means **1.88 points** more participation and **2,723,008 additional votes**. Lula's growth between the two rounds was **4.75%** of the votes, that is, **10,385,508 more voters**. His rival also grew, by around **6.6%**. The question hanging in the air is where those millions of voters came from who had not supported the Workers' Party candidate in the first round.
There is one detail that adds fuel to the fire: the extension of voting hours by two extra hours, a decision adopted after a request from a judge who had previously been Lula's lawyer. For some analysts, this kind of institutional decision, combined with the jumps in turnout, paints a picture that is hard to reconcile with consolidated democracies. The comparison with other countries in the region, such as **Peru** or **Colombia**, where the left was defeated by narrow margins, serves as a contrast.
## Polls, the electoral roll and postal voting: the doubts reaching Spain
The Brazilian case has become a mirror for those who already distrusted Spain's electoral mechanisms. Doubts pile up on three fronts: the electoral roll, postal voting and the **CERA** vote, that of residents abroad. These are issues that, if not cleared up, could lead all actors to contest the result: both those who have generated the suspicions and those who feel victimized by them. A scenario that some describe as hellish and that erodes trust in the system.
The **Junta Electoral Central** (Spain's central electoral board) appears in this context as the ultimate arbiter. It is a body made up of low-profile judges, almost anonymous to the general public, which until now has not made front pages. The expectation is that, with general elections approaching, that anonymity will be broken and its members will come under close scrutiny. The pressure on them will be at its peak, and their ability to withstand it will be decisive.
## The precedent of the audience figures and the suspicion of a miracle
Distrust is not limited to the ballot box. In Spanish public debate, a figure has circulated that is used as an example of what some consider a pattern: the **258%** overnight growth in the audience of a television program, while its competitors lost no viewers. The comparison with the biblical story of the loaves and fishes is no accident. It is a way of pointing out that, for part of opinion, certain abrupt shifts in support or in audience figures cannot be explained by the normal evolution of public opinion.
Electoral trends, skeptics argue, rarely change radically. When they do, and this also coincides with controversial institutional decisions or atypical variations in turnout, suspicion takes hold. The left, according to this reading, has a surprising ability to mobilize support at the last moment. And that, transferred to Spain, generates concern about the fairness of the next elections.
## Trust in the system at stake
The debate goes beyond the Brazilian case. What is at issue is trust in the institutions that manage electoral processes and in the instruments that measure public opinion. If polls fail systematically, if the electoral roll raises doubts, and if postal voting or the overseas residents' vote offers no clear guarantees, the result of any election is exposed to challenge. And on that ground, everyone loses: winners and losers alike.
The **Junta Electoral Central** has the task of clearing up these doubts ahead of it. Its actions, and those of the media that scrutinize the process, will determine whether the next election result in Spain is accepted without reservations or becomes a new chapter in a distrust that is no longer limited to Brazil. The comparison with the South American country is not gratuitous: there, an upset of almost **20 points** in the runoff has been enough for millions of people to view the ballot boxes with suspicion.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (1 replies).
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