Ciento176 and Objetivo 176: Web tools for election forecasting
Ciento176 predicts a 94% chance of a PP government, while Objetivo 176 allows users to simulate seat distributions by province since 2023.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Ciento176 and Objetivo 176 are two web-based tools designed for consulting and building election forecasts. The former provides aggregate probabilities and a simulator, while the latter allows users to edit seat counts by province based on the 2023 general elections.
Two websites have carved out a niche among those trinc election predictions. One reports probabilities, while the other lets you build scenarios manually. Neither predicts the future, but both organize the data.
## Ciento176: Probabilities and outcome bell curves
**Ciento176** publishes the probability of various outcomes in the upcoming general elections. At the time of this query, it assigns a **94%** probability to a PP (People's Party) government and a **6%** chance that Pedro Sánchez will retain power through pacts similar to the last elections.
The probabilities tab shows a bell curve with possible scenarios. The median result is **201 seats** for PP and Vox. It also includes a breakdown by province of average polling data and a simulator where users can create their own forecasts, even incorporating Podemos and SALF.
## Objetivo 176: Simulating seats since 2023
**Objetivo 176** functions as a prediction tool. It allows you to modify the results for all parties, either in total or by province, using the **2023** general elections as a baseline. The forecast generates a map, tables, and other useful data. Work can be saved to a file to be continued later.
The limitation lies in that baseline. Since it starts from the last general elections, it does not allow for forecasting with **Podemos** (which has since split from Sumar) or **SALF**. Even so, it remains one of the most complete tools for building predictions.
## What they offer and what they don't
Neither tool settles the question of who will govern. Ciento176 translates polls into probabilities; Objetivo 176 translates seats into editable scenarios. They are complementary: one summarizes, while the other allows for experimentation.
Anyone using them to decide their vote or a bet should remember that a forecast is not a result. Polls fail, pacts change, and baseline data ages.
Two websites have carved out a niche among those trinc election predictions. One reports probabilities, while the other lets you build scenarios manually. Neither predicts the future, but both organize the data.
## Ciento176: Probabilities and outcome bell curves
**Ciento176** publishes the probability of various outcomes in the upcoming general elections. At the time of this query, it assigns a **94%** probability to a PP (People's Party) government and a **6%** chance that Pedro Sánchez will retain power through pacts similar to the last elections.
The probabilities tab shows a bell curve with possible scenarios. The median result is **201 seats** for PP and Vox. It also includes a breakdown by province of average polling data and a simulator where users can create their own forecasts, even incorporating Podemos and SALF.
## Objetivo 176: Simulating seats since 2023
**Objetivo 176** functions as a prediction tool. It allows you to modify the results for all parties, either in total or by province, using the **2023** general elections as a baseline. The forecast generates a map, tables, and other useful data. Work can be saved to a file to be continued later.
The limitation lies in that baseline. Since it starts from the last general elections, it does not allow for forecasting with **Podemos** (which has since split from Sumar) or **SALF**. Even so, it remains one of the most complete tools for building predictions.
## What they offer and what they don't
Neither tool settles the question of who will govern. Ciento176 translates polls into probabilities; Objetivo 176 translates seats into editable scenarios. They are complementary: one summarizes, while the other allows for experimentation.
Anyone using them to decide their vote or a bet should remember that a forecast is not a result. Polls fail, pacts change, and baseline data ages.
Also available in: Deutsch
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (0 replies).
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