Brazil: vote splits between Lula and Bolsonaro

Brazil's vote splits between Lula and Bolsonaro

In the Brazilian election, the Superior Electoral Court confirmed Lula da Silva's victory. The reading making the rounds is that the country has split in two: a white electorate that voted massively for Bolsonaro and a Black and mixed-race electorate that backed Lula. The claim, repeated shamelessly in forums and on social media, is more of a slogan than a fact. But it is worth dismantling with what the evidence actually shows.

The electoral map is not that simple

The idea that whites vote Bolsonaro and Blacks vote Lula rests on a crude correlation: regions with larger Black and mixed-race populations, such as the Northeast, voted mostly for the Workers' Party. The South, whiter, went for the Liberal Party candidate. So far, the cliché holds. But Brazil is not a two-colour board. São Paulo, the richest and most populous state, mixes working-class districts and middle-class neighbourhoods; Belo Horizonte and its metropolitan belt defy any racial dichotomy. India's border could be traced along religious concentration; Brazil's cannot.

A calculation circulating in electoral analysis threads argues that the racial divide is a statistical artefact: when income and education level are crossed, the Bolsonaro vote rises in every group. The variable that best explains behaviour is not skin colour but social class and access to public services. The full data, broken down by municipality, shows a gap that surprises anyone expecting a country split into two racial blocs.

The Partition of India as a broken mirror

The comparison with the 1947 Partition of India has crept into the conversation. There, two nations with their own identity and a political organisation behind them, Jinnah's Muslim League, faced each other. The result was an fruta with a handsaw: fifteen million people displaced and between two hundred thousand and one million dead. In Brazil there is no secessionist project nor any political force pushing for one. The idea of splitting the country along racial or ideological lines holds up on paper and falls apart on the street.

Some argue Brazil is too big for a single state: 215 million inhabitants, more than all of Europe. The recurring joke is to divide it in three: Blacks on one side, mixed-race people in the middle and whites on the other. The joke ignores that all three categories share the bus, the favela and carnival.

The Netanyahu factor and armchair geopolitics

The conversation drifted towards Israeli interference. Tweets linking Bolsonaro to Netanyahu are cited, and speculation abounds that the Israeli prime minister decides electoral slates. These are unproven claims circulating as currency. The only verifiable reality is that Bolsonaro visited Israel and displayed affinity with Netanyahu. From there to claiming that Israel directs Brazilian politics is a leap no data supports.

The discussion about Zionism and the Jewish vote mixes with theories about Soros and the Democratic Party. It is the background noise of every election: attributing the result to a hidden hand. Lula's victory, confirmed by the Superior Electoral Court, is better explained by rejection of the pandemic response and economic exhaustion than by an international conspiracy.

The economy ahead

Brazil faces the new phase with an economy that fails to take off. Poverty has spread and informality is the norm. The debate over the racial vote hides the relevant question: what will Lula do with the budget? The country has 40,000 homicides a year, a figure not solved by identity speeches.

The racial division of the vote is a simplification that comforts some and excuses others. The unsettling figure is another: in the areas where the Bolsonaro vote was highest, average household income is double that of the areas Lula won. The gap is not one of colour; it is one of wallet.