Black swan in Europe: riots and the great reset narrative

Black swan in Europe: riots and the great reset narrative

A concept from financial statistics, the black swan, has crept into the conversation about the wave of riots sweeping Europe. The paradox is that an event of this nature, by definition, cannot be predicted. Yet on the fringes of the protests in France, a suspicion has taken hold that the "rebellions" are not spontaneous, but rather one more piece of a social reengineering plan. The discussion blends economic analysis with distrust of those in power.

What is a black swan and why is it used to explain the riots?

The term, popularized by Nassim Taleb, refers to an unforeseen event of great impact that, once it has occurred, is rationalized as if it had been obvious. In the case of the protests in France, some argue that what peine does not fit that category, because the social unrest was a powder keg in plain sight. Others maintain that preparing to mitigate the consequences is not the same as predicting the exact day, hour and form of the explosion.

The discussion then shifts to the question of causality. If the black swan cannot be anticipated, why the insistence that "it was crystal clear"? The answer that prevails in this analysis is that after-the-fact rationalization is the mechanism those in power use to justify exceptional responses.

The great reset and the theory of orchestrated rebellions

The hypothesis gaining ground is that social crises serve to impose measures that, under normal democratic conditions, would have no chance of passing. The argument goes that street violence, with images of looting and wrecked shops, creates the climate of urgency needed to approve a new legislative and fiscal framework. The great reset thesis draws on statements such as those made by Ursula von der Leyen on 1 September, when she said that Europeans' savings would have to be put at the service of European companies.

That remark, read in economic terms, is interpreted as a warning: private savings will be the next source of funding for a state that can no longer borrow any further. The sequence being sketched out is as trinc: riots, social disorder, financial rescue and, as cover, the guarantee of social peace.

Who is behind the riots in France and Italy?

The images from the clashes show groups of hooded figures, young people and people of migrant origin. That profile clashes with the theory that the far right is behind the violence, a hypothesis put forward in the earliest analyses that does not match what the videos show. The suspicion of an outside hand, such as the Kremlin's, has also entered the conversation, though without any evidence to back it up.

What the riots do reveal is a common pattern: the burning of street furniture, the looting of luxury shops and the presence of journalists in helmets and high-visibility vests, a scene reminiscent of war coverage. The image of a couple in their eighties stripped of everything in the middle of the street has become the symbol of a violence that makes no distinction between symbols of consumption and people.

The political response: why is the problem not being tackled?

The question hanging in the air is why firm measures are not being applied when the solution seems simple: cut public funding for sympathetic organizations, increase penalties for rioting, require insurance from protest organizers and strengthen the security forces. The suggested answer is that the problem is not a lack of tools, but a lack of will. Controlled disorder has a political use.

The digital euro and financial control as the backdrop

In the background of the conversation comes the rollout of the digital euro and CBDCs. The sequence described is one of a legislative framework that has been in development for years: digital identity, restrictions on cash and control of social media. Social disorder would be the catalyst that makes people accept those measures as the lesser evil.

On this basis, the question is not whether there will be a next explosion, but whether the black swan narrative will serve to justify whatever comes next. Are we facing an unforeseen crisis, or a script written in advance?