Bitcoin wipes out weak hands and eyes a run at 36,000

Bitcoin wipes out weak hands and eyes a run at 36,000

Bitcoin has run over the incredulous weak hands, and now the question is whether this is a technical bounce or the start of another furious slide. The thesis that opens the discussion is blunt: **by Sunday we'll be at 36,000**. It's not opinion, it's information, the argument goes. From there on, everything else is an exercise in faith, support-level math, and the odd promise to buy that never comes with a screenshot.

The first claim doing the rounds is that **Binance was blocking bitcoin withdrawals**. It gets corrected right away: withdrawals are working again. That detail, minor as it seems, feeds the *to the moon* narrative and the idea that there are "freebies" in the market. The euphoria doesn't last. Someone warns that anyone who doesn't go *all-in* now shouldn't cry about it later, and another replies that anything short of a bounce to all-time highs is crap to him. And so the usual cycle begins.

The stop hunt below the 200-week moving average

Technical analysis takes over in the second round. Some argue that **the price has been pushed below the 200-week moving average to sweep stops** as if there were no tomorrow. The scenario being sketched: a bounce toward **28,000-30,000** and then back down again with wild-boar fury. It's the most widespread view among those who believe this is a breather, not a trend change.

The problem is that nobody agrees on the timing. Some say the bounce is coming now, others that the whales have stepped out to rescue the Nasdaq when rates are raised on Thursday. The sequence being laid out is this: first liquidity is scooped up here and there, then rates are cut, and the big bounce arrives **without whales**, once they come back in. *Timing is everything*, sums up the most skeptical camp.

The call for transparency isn't long in coming: those sending buy messages should post screenshots of their trades. The answer is silence, a meme or two, and a laugh. The ghost of the verbal *all-in* is exposed without anyone having to point fingers.

Why talk of a July bounce?

The calendar theory has its own alibi. **Every year around July 21 bitcoin gets a boost**, insists one participant who has already turned this into a tradition. The claim is repeated with the solemnity of an oracle: "Chocolate has spoken." There's no chart to back it up, but it fits the need to find a pattern in the noise.

The counterpoint comes from macro analysis. The argument is that it should rise a bit in July and August, but there are **too many open fronts** to be optimistic. The contagion from AC3 is mentioned, along with the effect it could have on the crypto market. The reference to Ark Invest appears as the source of that moderate pessimism.

Meanwhile, the price keeps falling and the jokes multiply. That the beach deposit is cheaper in bitcoins than in gasoline, that the OP was so well informed that only whoever trinc his advice can outdo him on lateness. A drop to **10,000** is mentioned as a possible scenario. Nobody rules it out entirely.

The triangle that blew up and the gazelle that thought it was a whale

Technical analysis returns with more geometry. There's talk of a **triangle and supports on one line**. The description couldn't be more honest: "if it drops now everything goes down, if it holds it would go up according to the triangles, lines and those mysterious geometries." The comparison with astrology is no accident. And the verdict comes dry: **it blew up**.

The hunting metaphor structures the whole story. There's talk of **gazelles believing they're whales, trapped by strong hands**. And a warning that many gazelles are still left to be flushed out. The process doesn't end there: the companies that bought bitcoin with debt still have to be liquidated. **Microstrategy** is the name to watch this week.

The underlying scenario being considered is one of a system that no longer controls crypto with whales and will have to deal with its own problems before banning it. The conclusion drawn is that it's a **winning bet in the medium term**, but not yet, until the whales finish getting out. A nuance that changes everything.

Money with no time for nonsense

The soberest take comes from capital flows. The claim is that **money right now has no time for nonsense** and that every bounce is a dead-cat bounce, over and over, while cryptos dig their respective graves. The fall comes back with force and optimism runs out of arguments.

The geopolitical context sneaks into the conversation. It's mentioned that Russia has had **600 billion euros** stolen that it held in British and US banks. The interpretation offered is that the world has been told the dollar isn't safe and can be plundered, which in some people's view should send bitcoin to a million. The logic has a leap nobody quite explains.

The macro scenario of the midterm elections also appears: elections in the middle of rate hikes, recession and gasoline above **8 dollars**. The hypothesis floated is that in 2023 the dollar CBDC rolls out and that at the end of that year rates start coming down, so 2024 arrives with the economy *on steroids*. In a deglobalized world, the plan is no longer so easy to pull off.

The prediction, with caveats

The bounce may come. Or not. The only certainty left by this whole ride is that **the market has swept out those who got in late**, and that those now promising massive buys haven't shown a single trade. The price remains the judge. And on Sunday, according to the initial information, we'd be at 36,000. If not, there's always July 21.