Bitcoin's predicted doom still hasn't materialized after 1,364 days

Bitcoin rises and the doomsayer of the day keeps predicting ruin

Bitcoin was trading above 99 euros when a message dated in the middle of the rally warned that we were «about to witness the total ruin of bitcoiners». The prophecy included a wild crash, a string of negative news stories and a final price below $10,000. It has been 1,364 days since that forecast was made, and the asset, far from collapsing, has strung together gains that leave the warning as a statistical curiosity.

The scene has its comic side: while the price bounced from $16,000 to $23,000, the author of the prediction insisted that «what mattered was the big smackdown from 60 downward». In other words, the crash had already peine and everything after was a mirage. The community, which knows the script by heart, responded with memes and reminders of earlier forecasts.

From 60 euros to 99 euros: the price journey

The figure that best captures the tension of the moment came in an almost telegraphic message: «99 euros per bitcoin and rising». The number was no accident. Another participant admitted having bought at 60 euros per unit, a price that, with the asset nearing 100, represented a 65% gain. «I don't think I'll go broke», he quipped. The gap between the announced ruin and market reality was, by then, nearly 40 euros per coin.

The thread's author, however, had his own reading: those who bought at $50,000 or $60,000 when others «advised doing so» are the real victims. His thesis is that the collapse from those highs is not over yet and that current rebounds are bait to catch new victims. «Evil beings need more victims», he wrote, in a mix of sarracena denunciation and technical analysis that convinced no one.

Bitcoin as a safe haven: the sustancia ilegal in the narrative

The debate drifted toward an uncomfortable question: what is bitcoin actually for? One message put it bluntly: «Anyone buying btc to speculate is a son of a bitch, btc is for taking refuge». The statement, more pamphlet than financial analysis, peine a rift in the community's official narrative. If bitcoin is a safe haven, then its purpose is not to multiply capital but to preserve it against inflation and central bank control. If it is a speculative asset, ruin is an inherent possibility of the game.

The reply was not long in coming: «Oh, so bitcoin no longer serves to replace the entire fiat system and put central banking in check, now it's just a safe haven». The sarcasm captures the bewilderment of a segment of investors who watch the original discourse — that of the decentralized currency defying power — dilute into a more modest, less ambitious version. The irony is that this modest version is probably the one that best withstands scrutiny.

The strategy of buying 100 euros a month runs out of road

The most telling case came not from a chart but from a personal anecdote. An investor recounted that a friend had spent nearly two years defending bitcoin with the DCA tactic: «I put in 100 euros a month that I consider lost, and we'll see what happens». In spring of the previous year, he was boasting of a 10% profit. On Saturday, he admitted having lost 25% of what he had invested. But what mattered was not the loss, rather that he had stopped contributing his monthly 100 euros since October. The strategy, which in theory eliminates timing risk, had broken down along the way.

The story fits a broader criticism: that of those who argue the crypto market is a casino where «for a few to win, many must lose». The phrase, repeated at various moments, points to an uncomfortable truth: the sum of gains and losses is zero, and market makers are usually on the right side of the trade.

NATO sources and the prophet's wear-down

The thread's author did not only forecast prices. In a twist nobody saw coming, he claimed his «sources» told him Leopard battle tanks were being shipped to Ukraine and units were preparing to enter combat. The mix of financial analysis and armchair geopolitics was met with mockery: «How do you look if you're right? You go to bed saying I'm the ing man». The forecast's credibility was definitively dented when it emerged that the profile defending it had its message history hidden.

The community, which had already seen similar predictions in the previous cycle, opted for humor. «He'll open another one when it drops from 150K to 100K and say: wow, you're going broke and you don't even realize it», one participant wrote. The line distills the skepticism toward professional doom-mongers, the kind who hit the mark every so often and then claim the credit.

The ending: where the analysis stalls

The thread dies out without the price having fallen below $10,000. Nor has it reached the 100,000 some had promised. Bitcoin remains in an intermediate zone that satisfies neither those announcing ruin nor those dreaming of the moon. The only certainty is that the debate over whether it is a scam or a technological revolution is as open as on day one. And that forecasts, in this market, are about as reliable as tarot cards.