Bayer and passive income: from 40,000 shares to 100,000 euros in dividends
Buying 40,000 Bayer shares at 20 euros and waiting for 80: the passive income calculation that is already up 55% and requires an initial investment of 800,000 euros.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Bayer and passive income: the bet that is already up 55%
Buying 40,000 Bayer shares at 20 euros and waiting for them to reach 80. That was the calculation made on a stock market forum 532 days ago. Today the share trades around 50 euros and the thread has accumulated 774 replies. The thesis was simple: a company with lawsuits that seemed endless, a new CEO and a market that had given up. Time has partially vindicated those who held on, but the road has had scares, 10% single-day drops and lawsuits that still have not been fully settled.
The original proposal was not for the faint-hearted: 40,000 Bayer shares at 20 euros means an 800,000 euro investment. The goal, according to the initial plan, was to sell at 80 euros and pocket 2.4 million euros in capital gains. Or stay in and collect a dividend of 2.4 euros per share, which would yield 100,000 euros gross per year. Textbook passive income, with the particularity that these dividends are taxed at 20% rather than as employment income. The fine print: you need the initial capital.
The glyphosate litigation: from burden to opportunity
The Roundup case has been the decisive factor. Bayer bought Monsanto in 2018 for 63 billion dollars and inherited 65,000 cancer lawsuits. The company has set aside 11.8 billion euros and has already paid out 10 billion. The thread closely trinc the agreement with judge Boyer to settle the pending cases. The Supreme Court ruling in the Durnell case, which overturned a 1.25 million dollar award and established that federal law takes precedence over state claims, was the first real turning point. Then came the unanimous victory in the Aretino trial, which reinforced the thesis that plaintiffs are finding it increasingly difficult.
That is the core of the matter: if the litigation is defused, Bayer goes back to being a normal pharmaceutical and agrochemical company. And the market is starting to price it in. The share went from around 20 euros to above 50 in a few months, with gains of 15% or 18% in a single session after judicial pogre was announced.
The CEO splitting divisions and the returning dividend
Bill Anderson, the CEO, is the other pillar of the thesis. In the thread he is described as a manager with an American mindset on shareholder returns, capable of splitting divisions so they trade independently. The idea is that the agrochemical and pharmaceutical businesses are worth more apart than together. If that happens, the dividend could return to levels of 2.4 euros per share, which at current prices would miccionan a yield above 4%.
The comparison with Atresmedia helps to understand the strategy: buying 200,000 shares at 3 euros, when the market had written the company off, and waiting for the cycle to turn. Today they are worth 1.8 million and pay 140,000 euros gross in dividends. The pattern repeats itself: companies with temporary problems, low multiples and a clear catalyst. Howard Marks and Stan Weinstein are the references cited to justify the method.
The critical voices: no passive income without a million
Not everyone buys the story. The most repeated objection is the entry barrier: 800,000 euros to buy 40,000 shares is out of reach for most people. "For ordinary people these are amounts completely out of reach," the argument goes. The answer is that the exercise can be done with less: 50,000 shares if you have 100,000 euros, or as many as you can. The principle is the same, even if the final result is not.
Another criticism points to political risk. A tariff change or a decision by the US administration can derail the scenario. It is also pointed out that the company is run by a German management board that has not always been up to the task. And that the litigation, even if settled, could resurface with new arguments, as in the trial of three women in St. Louis that tried to circumvent Supreme Court case law.
The calculation that does not add up: 40,000 shares and an uncertain dividend
The figure of 100,000 euros gross in annual dividends assumes Bayer pays 2.4 euros per share. It does not do so today. The company suspended the dividend at one point and it is unclear when it will reinstate it. The thread reflects that uncertainty: "when they start paying real dividends again, I'll be able to live off Bayer alone," says someone holding 8,050 shares at an average of 18.65 euros. The math is different for each investor.
The other calculation is the capital gain. If Bayer reaches 80 euros, the 40,000 shares would be worth 3.2 million. But nobody knows when. "The idea is good and it makes sense, but you might spend 10 years waiting for it to rise to that price," the warning goes. The stock market is not a straight line, and the road from 20 to 50 has had 10% single-day drops and 15% gains in a single session.
The evolution of the thread: from skepticism to FOMO
The tone changed over time. At first doubt prevailed: "if it were that easy and that safe, everyone would do it." Then, as the share started to rise, came the messages of restrained euphoria. "What a bullish antiestéticast," "this is going to soar," "70 is the first target." And then, once again, the scare: a 7.77% drop in one day due to a new 1.2 billion provision for lawsuits. The roller coaster is part of the process.
The thread leaves one clear idea: passive income is not for everyone. It requires capital, patience and nerve. And above all, it requires getting the cycle right. Bayer could be a historic opportunity or a trap. Those who bought at 20 euros and held on have an unrealized gain of 150%. Those who bought at 50 and see a drop to 43 wonder whether they arrived too late. The answer, as always, will be given by time.
Key figures from the thread:
Buying 40,000 Bayer shares at 20 euros and waiting for them to reach 80. That was the calculation made on a stock market forum 532 days ago. Today the share trades around 50 euros and the thread has accumulated 774 replies. The thesis was simple: a company with lawsuits that seemed endless, a new CEO and a market that had given up. Time has partially vindicated those who held on, but the road has had scares, 10% single-day drops and lawsuits that still have not been fully settled.
The original proposal was not for the faint-hearted: 40,000 Bayer shares at 20 euros means an 800,000 euro investment. The goal, according to the initial plan, was to sell at 80 euros and pocket 2.4 million euros in capital gains. Or stay in and collect a dividend of 2.4 euros per share, which would yield 100,000 euros gross per year. Textbook passive income, with the particularity that these dividends are taxed at 20% rather than as employment income. The fine print: you need the initial capital.
The glyphosate litigation: from burden to opportunity
The Roundup case has been the decisive factor. Bayer bought Monsanto in 2018 for 63 billion dollars and inherited 65,000 cancer lawsuits. The company has set aside 11.8 billion euros and has already paid out 10 billion. The thread closely trinc the agreement with judge Boyer to settle the pending cases. The Supreme Court ruling in the Durnell case, which overturned a 1.25 million dollar award and established that federal law takes precedence over state claims, was the first real turning point. Then came the unanimous victory in the Aretino trial, which reinforced the thesis that plaintiffs are finding it increasingly difficult.
That is the core of the matter: if the litigation is defused, Bayer goes back to being a normal pharmaceutical and agrochemical company. And the market is starting to price it in. The share went from around 20 euros to above 50 in a few months, with gains of 15% or 18% in a single session after judicial pogre was announced.
The CEO splitting divisions and the returning dividend
Bill Anderson, the CEO, is the other pillar of the thesis. In the thread he is described as a manager with an American mindset on shareholder returns, capable of splitting divisions so they trade independently. The idea is that the agrochemical and pharmaceutical businesses are worth more apart than together. If that happens, the dividend could return to levels of 2.4 euros per share, which at current prices would miccionan a yield above 4%.
The comparison with Atresmedia helps to understand the strategy: buying 200,000 shares at 3 euros, when the market had written the company off, and waiting for the cycle to turn. Today they are worth 1.8 million and pay 140,000 euros gross in dividends. The pattern repeats itself: companies with temporary problems, low multiples and a clear catalyst. Howard Marks and Stan Weinstein are the references cited to justify the method.
The critical voices: no passive income without a million
Not everyone buys the story. The most repeated objection is the entry barrier: 800,000 euros to buy 40,000 shares is out of reach for most people. "For ordinary people these are amounts completely out of reach," the argument goes. The answer is that the exercise can be done with less: 50,000 shares if you have 100,000 euros, or as many as you can. The principle is the same, even if the final result is not.
Another criticism points to political risk. A tariff change or a decision by the US administration can derail the scenario. It is also pointed out that the company is run by a German management board that has not always been up to the task. And that the litigation, even if settled, could resurface with new arguments, as in the trial of three women in St. Louis that tried to circumvent Supreme Court case law.
The calculation that does not add up: 40,000 shares and an uncertain dividend
The figure of 100,000 euros gross in annual dividends assumes Bayer pays 2.4 euros per share. It does not do so today. The company suspended the dividend at one point and it is unclear when it will reinstate it. The thread reflects that uncertainty: "when they start paying real dividends again, I'll be able to live off Bayer alone," says someone holding 8,050 shares at an average of 18.65 euros. The math is different for each investor.
The other calculation is the capital gain. If Bayer reaches 80 euros, the 40,000 shares would be worth 3.2 million. But nobody knows when. "The idea is good and it makes sense, but you might spend 10 years waiting for it to rise to that price," the warning goes. The stock market is not a straight line, and the road from 20 to 50 has had 10% single-day drops and 15% gains in a single session.
The evolution of the thread: from skepticism to FOMO
The tone changed over time. At first doubt prevailed: "if it were that easy and that safe, everyone would do it." Then, as the share started to rise, came the messages of restrained euphoria. "What a bullish antiestéticast," "this is going to soar," "70 is the first target." And then, once again, the scare: a 7.77% drop in one day due to a new 1.2 billion provision for lawsuits. The roller coaster is part of the process.
The thread leaves one clear idea: passive income is not for everyone. It requires capital, patience and nerve. And above all, it requires getting the cycle right. Bayer could be a historic opportunity or a trap. Those who bought at 20 euros and held on have an unrealized gain of 150%. Those who bought at 50 and see a drop to 43 wonder whether they arrived too late. The answer, as always, will be given by time.
Key figures from the thread:
- 40,000 Bayer shares at 20 euros = 800,000 euros of initial investment.
- Sale target: 80 euros per share, which would yield 3.2 million euros.
- Estimated dividend: 2.4 euros per share, 100,000 euros gross per year.
- Bayer bought Monsanto for 63 billion dollars in 2018.
- Provisions for litigation: 11.8 billion euros.
- The share went from 20 to more than 50 euros in less than a year.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (781 replies).
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