Basque independence support drops to 19% as migration rises

Basque independence support drops to 19% as migration rises

Is the dream of independence in Euskadi truly fading, or has it simply lost its name? The Basque Government’s Sociometer, in its first release after Imanol Pradales’ investiture, presents a figure nationalist parties have struggled to digest for months: only 19% of Basques declare themselves pro-independence, down from 23% in February 2024. Opposition to breaking with Spain rises to 42%, four points higher than nine months ago. And self-determination, a priority for PNV and EH Bildu, concerns just 3% of respondents.

What the Basque Sociometer data reveals

The survey, conducted by the autonomous executive’s presidency, depicts a society more focused on paychecks than flags. Declared priorities are healthcare (44%), housing (32%) and unemployment (31%). Self-determination, which PNV aims to reactivate, remains a residual 3%. A key finding disrupts the bloc narrative: 42% feel equally Basque and Spanish, with mixed identity overwhelmingly winning over exclusive options.

The fine print brings another novelty parties have sensed in the streets for weeks: immigration climbs to fifth place among concerns, reaching 16%, up from ninth place with 7% just nine months ago. Crime also rises to 19%, reinforcing the sense of insecurity long highlighted by opposition and police unions. In one move, Basque society shifts away from identity narratives toward issues that truly keep people awake.

Pradales restores PNV momentum after electoral scare

The Sociometer also measures the Pradales effect. The lehendakari is known by 77% of respondents, far above the 51% reached by Pello Otxandiano (EH Bildu) and Eneko Andueza (PSE-EE). In attribute ratings, dialogue scores an average of 5.9; honesty, 5.5; trust, 5.3; leadership, 5.3; and effectiveness, 5.2. 72% recognize his considerable or high capacity to change things.

In voting intention, PNV would secure 28 parliamentarians (one more than in April), while EH Bildu stays at 27, stagnant according to the official poll. The shock of the regional elections, when Otxandiano’s party came within 29,000 votes of overtaking them, seems digested thanks to the Pradales brand acting as glue.

Nationalist vote declines, but independence doesn’t vanish

Interpretations vary. Some argue that in recent elections, the nationalist vote (PNV plus EH Bildu) dropped by over 30,000 votes, marking the beginning of the end. Others nuance that the 19% independence figure coexists with a much larger percentage who don’t oppose independence outright, merely deprioritize it. Abstention, fluctuating between 40% and 50% depending on the election, is the true majority party, hiding unknown dynamics.

The most pessimistic view for nationalism suggests younger generations, more concerned with salaries than narratives, are eroding the sovereignist base. The optimistic view notes PNV remains the leading force and that the decline in independence support is slow but real. Amidst this, one certainty: the self-determination debate does not mobilize the masses other parties assume.

Immigration and crime: the new axis of Basque debate

The rise of immigration as a citizen concern isn’t unique to Euskadi, but here it carries specific readings. Part of the nationalist electorate antiestéticars migrant influx will dilute the cultural substrate underpinning their project. Another part pragmatically views it as an integration and public services issue. The Sociometer doesn’t analyze causes, only noting the topic moved from ninth to fifth place in nine months.

Crime, at 19%, reinforces the perceived insecurity denounced for months by Ertzaintza union representatives. Opposition parties found a vein there: if security concerns grow, the nationalist management narrative cracks. The Basque Government currently limits itself to acknowledging data and trusting Pradales’ figure to cushion wear.

What about the economic agreement and fiscal grievance?

Behind the economic debate lies the Basque economic agreement, a financing system some see as historical privilege and others as comparative grievance. Discussion on whether Euskadi contributes to or receives from the rest of Spain permeates any territorial model conversation. Sociometer data doesn’t measure this, but concerns about housing and employment in a region with its own treasury suggest the average citizen sees no link between fueros and daily well-being.

Some argue without the agreement, independence would lose its main material incentive. Others respond that the agreement makes independence unnecessary: with full competencies in health, education, and finance, formal rupture adds little value. This perhaps best explains the 19%: for many Basques, independence is no longer a necessity, but a symbol.

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With these elements, Basque nationalism holds more through institutional inertia than social push. Immigration rises, independence falls, and Pradales smiles in polls. Everything fits, unless someone asks again what purpose self-determination serves.