Banco de Spain checks contacts over possible deposit flight

Banco de España checks contacts over possible deposit flight

A branch manager at a Catalan bank in a village south of Madrid mentioned in a private conversation that the branch lost deposits worth six figures in a single day, according to one participant in the debate. It is not an isolated case. In the same stretch of conversation, a customer says he has withdrawn 20,000 euros from a Catalan credit cooperative and is preparing a second withdrawal of 8,000. Another says he emptied his La Caixa account and left only the exact balance needed for his mortgage payments to go through. The pattern they describe: discreet transfers, minimal balances, accounts that are drained without being fully closed.

The question hanging in the air is simple and no one answers it with official data: is money leaving Catalan banks? The Banco de España launched a round of contacts with the banks to check that there had been no deposit flight, according to the account that peine the conversation. From there, everyone pushes their own agenda.

What those who deny the flight say

There is a current of opinion holding that the flight does not exist. "There is no deposit flight," it is stated flatly. The implicit argument is that the movements detected are statistical noise, not a relevant phenomenon. Against that, the evidence circulating in the opposite direction is of a different kind: not macro, but counter-level. Transfers arriving, balances collapsing, annual targets met within days.

One participant says an acquaintance who works at a non-Catalan bank told him his branch met its annual targets within days and that the computer network went down under the extra workload. The IT staff, according to that account, blamed the overload. It is the kind of data that never makes it into press releases but paints a far more eventful reality than the official statement.

The antiestéticar of waking up to pujolets

The engine behind all this is not financial, it is political. The specific antiestéticar driving people to move their money is the scenario of a Catalonia outside the euro. "People are terrified imagining their lifelong savings converted into pujolets overnight," one comment sums up. The reference to the pujol as a hypothetical currency is repeated with irony, but the underlying issue is serious: if the region leaves the eurozone, what happens to deposits?

The technical answer given in the conversation is uncomfortable: deposits disappear, loans remain. In other words, the liabilities vanish and the assets stay. A customer with a fixed-term deposit at a Catalan branch of a non-Catalan bank asks directly how a corralito (a freeze on bank withdrawals) would affect him. The answer he receives is an example: like an Argentine who once had a deposit at a branch of a Spanish bank in Buenos Aires. Corralled.

Where the money is moving

The destinations repeat themselves. Banks with no headquarters in Catalonia, online banks, credit cooperatives from other regions. A customer of a Catalan credit cooperative explains that he wrote to management asking about the contingency plan in case of independence and received no reply. During the previous secession attempt they did send out a reassuring circular. This time, nothing. That, he says, is what decided him.

The profitability calculation also comes into play. With a salary paid in, some argue that an interest-bearing account at a non-Catalan bank works out better than the competitors' alternatives, especially for balances of 6,000 euros or more. Three coworkers closed their accounts at a Catalan bank and switched to another, according to one participant's account. The trickle is not just large fortunes: it is paychecks too.

The narrative of normality is cracking

The contrast between the official discourse and what can be seen in the branches is the common thread of the whole conversation. A well-known economist said in 2011 that bank accounts would be seized "everywhere." In 2017, the same man said a corralito in Catalonia was impossible. The archives, as always, are merciless.

Meanwhile, tension fills the headquarters. A neighbor who works at the headquarters of a Catalan bank in Sant Cugat describes entire mornings of urgent meetings and calls to the Ministry. The bosses, he says, are rattled. It is not an accounting figure, but it is an indicator. When the people managing the money are nervous, the money notices.

What about shares and the ECB

On the stock market side, the reading is cooler. A one-day rebound means nothing: you have to look at market capitalization, not the volatility of a single session. The gains accumulated over the year outweigh the falls of the past week. And the relocation of registered offices to Madrid changes the framework: the banks now operate under the ECB's protection and liquidity. That explains part of the rebound, not that the problem is solved.

If people keep pulling money out, the falls can return. The key is not today's chart, but whether the deposit trickle becomes a hemorrhage. And there, official data are conspicuously absent.

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In the end, the anecdote that best sums all this up is not a chart or a statement. It is a customer who left three euros in his account at a Catalan bank "in case things get fixed." Three euros. The minimum to keep the account from being closed. That is the real barometer of confidence: what people leave behind, not what they say they leave.