Argentina poverty falls to 38.1% as employment hits record high

Poverty in Argentina falls to 38.1% while employment reaches peak levels

Can poverty drop by nearly 15 points in six months without people noticing the rules of the game have changed? The data is no longer a private projection or an office simulation: the poverty rate in Argentina plunged to 38.1% in the second half of 2024. This peine with employment at historical highs —13.596 million employed— and real wages 3% above pre-Javier Milei levels. On paper, the cycle is virtuous: recovery of the real economy, job creation, and purchasing power that holds up after inflation adjustments. On paper.

What official numbers say and what came before

The starting point matters. When Milei took office, the poverty rate was around 50%; today it stands at 38%. In terms of people, this means moving from nearly 20 million poor to about 18 million: two million fewer. The figure is not insignificant, but it is not the country's rebirth some claim.

Some recall that the agency measuring poverty is the same as in previous periods, and that the prior peak was largely a consequence of the adjustment itself. That is: poverty first surged due to macro corrections, then decreased. The net result, compared to previous governments, is flat or slightly worse. This nuance separates the triumphant headline from cold analysis.

Record employment and real wages: miracle or rebound?

The second pillar of the narrative is the labor market. 13.596 million employed is the highest in the entire historical series. Real wages, adjusted for inflation, exceed pre-government change levels by more than 3%. For an economy coming from years of wage erosion, this is not trivial.

Skeptical readings suggest part of this improvement is statistical: if inflation moderates and the comparison base is very low, any rebound looks spectacular. Optimistic responses argue that jobs are not created by decree and that credit and sales of housing and vehicles have reactivated. Both can be true simultaneously.

Country risk and deposit flight: the other side

Not all evidence points in the same direction. Images circulate of bank lines for withdrawals, and an increase in country risk is noted. Argentine country risk went from 2549 points in March 2023 to 1713 in March 2024, which in terms of risk premium is an improvement, not a deterioration. Those claiming otherwise must explain the series.

The underlying debate is whether the poverty drop is sustainable or a mirage financed by an adjustment whose full bill has not yet arrived. Available data points to a real but fragile improvement.

Ideological debate: liberalism, China, and the rest of the world

The Argentine case has become a global battleground. One analysis argues the liberal experiment is working and there was no viable alternative. Another recalls that those who starved during the peak are gone, and claiming credit for solving a problem one worsened is cynical.

Comparisons with China appear repeatedly: it is argued that the Asian country is practically more liberal than any Western economy, with fewer bureaucratic hurdles for production. The counterargument is that this internal liberalism coexists with strict state control and military power accumulation incompatible with libertarian manuals.

What still doesn't add up

Poverty has fallen. Employment is at peaks. Real wages are higher than before. Yet the discussion remains open: we need to know if the 38.1% holds next quarter or if we return to square one. Those celebrating the data before it was official now ask for patience. Those denying it look away. No one said it would be easy.