Analysis Suggests Ending Wars Could Drop Oil Prices

Some argue the US could end its conflicts with Iran and Ukraine within two years, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and causing oil and gas prices to plummet. This is a hypothesis, not fact: it depends on decisions not currently on the table.

## What the scenario proposes
The premise relies on two simultaneous moves. First: the **United States** stops fighting **Iran** and accepts military defeat. This would prevent US soldiers returning in coffins and reopen the **Strait of Hormuz**, controlled by Iran but navigable. One-fifth of global oil passes through this maritime chokepoint, according to the **EIA**. Second: withdraw all **CIA** advisors from **Ukraine**, stop sending or selling weapons to Europeans for transfer, and cut off **Musk's Starshield** to Ukraine. According to this thesis, the war would end in a month and **Russia** would win.

## The price of crude and gas
The promised economic consequence is a drop in hydrocarbons and their derivatives: diesel, gasoline, and gas for Europe. This is the most debatable part. Crude prices do not depend solely on whether a strait is open or closed; global demand, **OPEC** capacity, and geopolitical risk also weigh heavily. Reopening Hormuz alone does not guarantee a collapse. And assuming Russia wins is a forecast, not data.

## Two years and a better economy
The scenario concludes that in two years, the global economy would be much better, especially in the **United States** and **Europe**. It is a chain of linked hypotheses: each link depends on the previous one holding true. None of those decisions have been made. It is wise to treat this forecast as what it is, an exercise in political fiction, rather than an economic prediction.