US strikes Iran; Strait of Hormuz remains closed

US strikes Iran; Strait of Hormuz remains closed

The premise is simple yet uncomfortable: according to the dominant narrative in this debate, the United States has launched a major attack against Iran. However, at the time of writing, the result is not the adversary's surrender but a blocked Strait of Hormuz, a global economy on edge, and a superpower unsure how to exit the mess. The thesis running through the thread from the first message is that Washington emptied its magazine against an enemy who kept what mattered underground.

The reference opening the topic is a link to El Mundo and a plea for help: the US president asks for assistance. From there, the thread becomes a reckoning with the official narrative of surgical bombing.

What peine with the US attack on Iran

The version dominating the analysis argues that Iranian missiles, drones, and launchers are in tunnels, safe from bombardments. If true, the air campaign has not touched the muscle that matters. Half of the downed planes and several hit ships, according to circulating reports, paint a scenario very different from clean victory.

The central argument is textbook: for a maritime blockade to work, one must keep their own industry and power centers safe. Without that security, it is only a matter of time before the blockaded party blows up. One part of the analysis asks what Iran will do in a post-oil economy, with neighbors diversifying for years and Israel having centuries of technological advantage.

Strait of Hormuz and cost for Europe

Iran does not need to win any battle. It suffices to launch a couple of missiles a day to keep the global economy mired, push aircraft carriers away, and drag the superpower image through the mud. This is classic asymmetry: the blocker spends little, the unblocker spends everything.

Collateral damage falls on allies. Two euros per liter is the repeated figure, with warnings that it could be three, seeing the European productive system collapse in days. The European economy is not adapted to any crisis: it has debt, narrow margins, and energy dependence not fixed by press releases.

China, double game, and oil

One current of analysis points to China as the big beneficiary. While presenting itself as peace champion in international forums, it would secretly continue helping Iran and buying oil in its own currency. The question posed is uncomfortable: Is Beijing for peace or war? Because doing both has limits.

The response from the other side is more pragmatic: China is not Spain. A third country cannot be told who to trade with, especially if buying oil, not arms. The embargo affects trade with the US, not the rest of the planet. Any attempt to pressure Beijing hits an uncomfortable reality: retaliation in any embassy, in any mid-tier country.

Ground invasion: the scenario no one wants

If the Iranian arsenal remains intact underground and the strait cannot be peine from the air, logic pushes toward ground invasion. The problem is scale: it would require effort far superior to Iraq and Afghanistan, two operations that already exhausted the US. Multiplying Afghanistan by a hundred is the image used to describe the quagmire.

Meanwhile, the war is unpopular at home. There are no Hollywood videos of bombings, and some attribute this to the conflict not selling as its own. Arguments suggest it serves foreign interests and that the US population begins to see they are doing dirty work for others.

The core issue: who pays the bill

Iran has 90 million inhabitants, centuries of history, and endurance capacity not measured by quarterly GDP. It has resisted Arabs, Turks, and Mongols. The question is whether it will resist this too, and at what price. Part of the analysis bets yes, even amidst hunger and misery.

The other reading is that the regime plays its survival and the post-oil economy shows no mercy. Gulf neighbors started long ago. In Iran's future, if ayatollahs allow thinking, there are only two paths: conversion or collapse.

What is clear is that Tehran does not pay the bill alone. Europe pays with each barrel, consumers pay with each refueling, and Washington pays with each day passing without declaring victory. The prediction, with all reservations, is that this will not resolve in coming months.