Aliança Catalana Surges to 11 Seats in Poll, Outpacing Current Two

Aliança Catalana Jumps from 2 to 11 Seats in CEO Barometer

The latest barometer from the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO), released on July 16, projects Aliança Catalana could win between 10 and 11 seats if Catalan elections were held today. Sílvia Orriols' party would see its vote share increase from 3.77% in the May 12, 2024, election to a projected 6% to 8% in voting intention. This represents a potential increase from two to eleven deputies in the best-case scenario. The fieldwork for the survey was conducted between May 30 and June 28, and the poll also indicates Junts falling below 30 seats.

This is a significant surge, prompting a re-evaluation of the political landscape. While no single factor explains this shift, it has been building for months.

Where the Growth Comes From: Junts, Vox, and Protest Votes

No single poll can fully explain vote transfers, but the accumulation of indicators points in a clear direction. The prevailing analysis suggests Aliança Catalana is attracting discontented voters from Junts, particularly those who disagree with recent pacts, and a segment of Vox's electorate that feels uncomfortable with the party. Some also point to disillusioned pro-independence voters who have lost faith in ERC or the CUP and are seeking a more uncompromising discourse.

The most common argument is that the core Vox electorate in Catalonia is stable and less prone to switching, while anger over immigration continues to grow. This suggests Aliança Catalana is filling a long-standing void rather than simply poaching voters.

Regional vs. National Votes: Separate Tracks

A confusing phenomenon in Catalan polling is the 'double vote' depending on the election type. Some voters may support Aliança Catalana in regional elections and Vox in general elections. While seemingly contradictory – an independence party alongside an avowedly Spanish nationalist one – this has historical precedent. For years, many voters supported CiU in Catalonia and the PSC in general elections without it being seen as an identity crisis.

The logic remains the same: each election has its own context and perceived utility. The difference is that this calculation, once territorial, now revolves around immigration. This is the axis that has shifted.

Ripoll as a Discourse Laboratory

Ripoll serves as a testing ground for the discourse that later appears in polls. Mayor Sílvia Orriols has closed venues citing health reasons or preventing women's access, according to her statements, and has issued an ordinance banning the burkini in the municipal pool for security reasons, with a specific recommendation to other Catalan municipalities. The burkini issue, in particular, has generated controversy and visibility beyond her town.

Her personal profile is presented as relatable: 39 years old, five children, previously a waitress and factory worker before entering politics, with the same partner for over twenty years. Her discourse avoids intermediaries, focusing on hygiene, security, and order, leaving nuances to others.

What Remains of the Independence Bloc

This growth comes at an internal cost. ERC and the CUP have made it clear they will not form pacts with Aliança Catalana, fracturing any potential pro-sovereignty majority. Junts also faces complications: losing seats to its right makes arithmetic even more challenging. The result is an increasingly ungovernable region due to accumulating cross-vetoes.

This mirrors trends in Madrid, with the caveat that, according to some calculations, a majority alternative between the two largest parties there is easily achievable. In Catalonia, the political board is so fragmented that even improbable majorities do not add up.

Can Aliança Catalana Govern with 11 Seats?

No. Ten or eleven deputies do not bring any party close to an absolute majority, and pact restrictions further complicate matters. The relevant question is not whether they govern, but how much influence they wield. A group of this size forces others to take positions on every vote and pulls public debate towards their issues. This effect – setting the agenda without holding power – has already been felt in the Parliament, where other parties have altered their intervention styles.

With the current figures, the most likely scenario is not an Aliança Catalana government, but an even more fragmented parliament and a perpetual campaign focused on immigration. All this, of course, depends on whether those surveyed by the CEO actually turn out to vote. Polls conducted two years out often get the direction right but miss the magnitude.