40dB Poll: PP and Vox hit 50%, with Vox growing alone

Evictions and protests do not shift the vote: PP and Vox hit 50%

The Maricarmen case has not shifted the electoral board. Neither the eviction nor the protest in Puerta del Sol has altered, so far, voting intentions, according to the latest 40dB barometer for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER. The poll was conducted with 2,000 online interviews between September 25 and 28, two days after the eviction and with the protest still underway. The result is stubborn: only Vox grows, and with the PP, they sum half the votes for a second consecutive month.

The paradox is that the left expected the eviction of an elderly woman —turned into a symbol— to mobilize its electorate. It has not been so. The poll, published in the midst of a political storm, suggests that the emotional impact of evictions does not translate into votes, at least not in the short term. Calentita, yes, but cold at the polls.

Why does only Vox grow while the PP stagnates?

Vox's growth does not come from nowhere. Some argue that its advance is fueled by PP voters who are disillusioned, not new voters. The most repeated analysis in the debate points to the fact that Vox should capture votes from the PP, not from the usual dissatisfied. "VOX must be fed by the PP, not by 4 crazies," summarizes a current of opinion circulating in the forum. That is: Vox's ceiling is not in chronic abstainers, but in the traditional right.

But the most striking data is generational. Youth provides most of Vox's voters, while the left is perceived as an aging electorate. This generational gap, if it consolidates, would have medium-term consequences: a party that grows among young people has room to maneuver; one that depends on older people, does not.

The eviction that did not shift the vote

The Maricarmen case —the eviction of an elderly woman— became the symbol of the housing crisis. The protest in Puerta del Sol, with flags and slogans, seemed the perfect breeding ground for an electoral shift. The poll says no. At least, not yet. The poll was conducted with the protest underway and the results do not reflect a transfer of votes to the left.

Some interpret this data as a sign that the left-wing electorate is already mobilized to the maximum. "Mobilize them more than they are? They are going with their butts on fire," one voice in the forum jokes. The underlying idea is that the left's floor is already touched and that dramatic events do not add new voters, only reinforce those already convinced.

The thesis of artificial mobilization

Not everyone believes the poll is neutral. A part of the analysis argues that the 40dB poll for EL PAÍS seeks to mobilize left-wing voters ahead of a possible early election. "It's the typical País news to mobilize the left," it is argued. The suspicion is that the media publishes data that, far from demobilizing, ignites its base with antiestéticar of a PP and Vox majority.

This hypothesis fits the context: the poll is published in the midst of a political storm, with a protest underway and an eviction that has shocked part of public opinion. If the goal was to mobilize, the effect could be the opposite in the right-wing electorate, which feels targeted. The PP and Vox maintain the majority, according to the barometer, but the sum is not enough to govern comfortably.

The calculation no one breaks down

The 40dB poll offers a data point that invites a finer analysis: 2,000 online interviews between September 25 and 28. The sample is representative, but the margin of error and internal workings are not detailed. Some argue that the poll is cooked to favor a specific narrative. The full calculation, with cross-tabs by age and vote recall, would give a more nuanced image. But that is not published.

What is known is that only Vox grows and that the sum with the PP reaches 50% of the votes for a second consecutive month. This stability on the right contrasts with the volatility of the left, which fails to capitalize on social discontent. The question is whether that 50% will hold when the protest dissolves and the Maricarmen case ceases to be front-page news.

What will happen with abstention?

Abstention is the big unknown. A part of the right-wing electorate, normally abstentionist, could be mobilized by reaction to the communist discourse they perceive in the media. "Decent people and normally abstentionist will consider voting out of pure reaction," it is argued. If that happens, the 50% of PP and Vox could fall short.

On the other side, the left hopes that antiestéticar of the far-right will activate its own. But the poll data does not back that hope. The Maricarmen case does not alter, so far, the vote, and that is bad news for those hoping for a turnaround. Housing policy, turned into the axis of debate, has not translated social drama into electoral support.

With these threads, the prediction is risky: if the PP and Vox consolidate that 50%, the left will need more than a protest to make up ground. But polls, as they say, sometimes fail. And the electorate, sometimes, moves when least expected.