Ukraine: Forum thread predicted war
A 2013 forum post sparked debate on Ukraine. Eleven years later, the thread remains active as the war continues.
Deutsch · Ursprüngliche Diskussion auf Spanisch · Veröffentlicht
Ukraine: The thread that saw the war coming
In November 2013, a message peine Pandora's box: "They are fighting to get into the sewer of the European Union." What began as a discussion about the association agreement between Ukraine and Brussels turned, over months and years, into an almost real-time record of how street protests escalated into open conflict. The thread, started in the World War III subforum, accumulated 162 replies over 4,693 days. Most analyses within it have not aged well. A few, suspiciously, have.
From the square to the palace: the 2013 outbreak
The starting point is Euromaidan. Early replies describe a square with red-and-black flags — symbol of western Ukrainian nationalists — and police beginning to use force. "With the excavator shoving the Police," one message summarizes. The dominant reading at the time was that Brussels and Washington were behind the protests to pull Ukraine out of Russia's orbit. Precedents from Yugoslavia are cited, along with talk of a supposed German plan to control Russian natural resources. The figure used then — "270 million inhabitants" — is immediately corrected by another message: "It's only 145 million."
The discussion intensifies. Some see an externally funded revolution; others, a popular movement against a corrupt government. An intervention from a participant who claims to have spoken with a Ukrainian provides the first colorful detail: "Kyiv is now the capital of chaos." And adds something prophetic: "There will be war and bloody war with dead people, but it will be Cold War, with spies, accidents, suicides and artillery fire from media outlets."
Gas, NATO and the missile shield
The thread fills with armchair geopolitics. It discusses whether Russia is invadable, if Germany acts as US intermediary, or if Pilingui will cut off gas in winter. The most repeated conclusion is that Ukraine is doomed to remain in Russia's orbit, "although this time for its own benefit." NATO appears as the main enemy: "has done nothing but kill innocents in terrorist attacks and humanitarian wars," one message asserts. The European Union, meanwhile, is described as "the new USSR," a bureaucratic entity that regulates even oil in oil dispensers.
Contempt for the Ukrainian political class is widespread. "Those are the stupid and rustic brothers of the Russians," says a message. "What they have to do is split the country in two parts." The idea that Ukraine is an artificial state without viability runs through almost all pages.
The 2014 turn: protesters governing
The thread takes a turn when, in February 2014, Yanukovych flees and an interim government is formed. One message summarizes it sarcastically: "Well, those who protested are governing, or whatever, in Kyiv." Reality imposes itself on forecasts. Those who assured that Pilingui would not allow the agreement find themselves facing the fact that the agreement is signed, albeit late. The annexation of Crimea and the start of the war in Donbas do not appear in the sample, but the tone changes: from certainty to perplexity.
The thread that refuses to die
Over the years, the thread becomes a cult object. Someone claims their "Soviet star" for having been the first to open it. Another asks for it to be pinned. In 2020, a message declares: "With everything happening due to cobi19, now comes the war." In 2022, the prophecy comes true. "Prophetic message," someone replies. "You have to be very retarded to put Zelensky in a 2013 thread when back then he was playing piano with his penis on TV," retorts another, with usual elegance.
What the thread got right (and wrong)
The balance is bittersweet. The general diagnosis was correct: Ukraine was a powder keg, EU and Russia had irreconcilable visions, and war — cold or hot — was on the table. Details failed: almost no one believed Kyiv would resist, that the EU would hold firm, or that Zelensky would become a global leader. Most messages from 2013 and 2014 assume Russia will get its way. History, as usual, did what it pleased.
The disorienting data: the thread peine in 2013 and remains alive in 2024. Eleven years later, the discussion has not ended. And those who then laughed at the "prin g a os" wanting to join the EU now see how Ukraine still requests accession while the war continues. No one won the argument. But the thread, against all odds, is still there.
In November 2013, a message peine Pandora's box: "They are fighting to get into the sewer of the European Union." What began as a discussion about the association agreement between Ukraine and Brussels turned, over months and years, into an almost real-time record of how street protests escalated into open conflict. The thread, started in the World War III subforum, accumulated 162 replies over 4,693 days. Most analyses within it have not aged well. A few, suspiciously, have.
From the square to the palace: the 2013 outbreak
The starting point is Euromaidan. Early replies describe a square with red-and-black flags — symbol of western Ukrainian nationalists — and police beginning to use force. "With the excavator shoving the Police," one message summarizes. The dominant reading at the time was that Brussels and Washington were behind the protests to pull Ukraine out of Russia's orbit. Precedents from Yugoslavia are cited, along with talk of a supposed German plan to control Russian natural resources. The figure used then — "270 million inhabitants" — is immediately corrected by another message: "It's only 145 million."
The discussion intensifies. Some see an externally funded revolution; others, a popular movement against a corrupt government. An intervention from a participant who claims to have spoken with a Ukrainian provides the first colorful detail: "Kyiv is now the capital of chaos." And adds something prophetic: "There will be war and bloody war with dead people, but it will be Cold War, with spies, accidents, suicides and artillery fire from media outlets."
Gas, NATO and the missile shield
The thread fills with armchair geopolitics. It discusses whether Russia is invadable, if Germany acts as US intermediary, or if Pilingui will cut off gas in winter. The most repeated conclusion is that Ukraine is doomed to remain in Russia's orbit, "although this time for its own benefit." NATO appears as the main enemy: "has done nothing but kill innocents in terrorist attacks and humanitarian wars," one message asserts. The European Union, meanwhile, is described as "the new USSR," a bureaucratic entity that regulates even oil in oil dispensers.
Contempt for the Ukrainian political class is widespread. "Those are the stupid and rustic brothers of the Russians," says a message. "What they have to do is split the country in two parts." The idea that Ukraine is an artificial state without viability runs through almost all pages.
The 2014 turn: protesters governing
The thread takes a turn when, in February 2014, Yanukovych flees and an interim government is formed. One message summarizes it sarcastically: "Well, those who protested are governing, or whatever, in Kyiv." Reality imposes itself on forecasts. Those who assured that Pilingui would not allow the agreement find themselves facing the fact that the agreement is signed, albeit late. The annexation of Crimea and the start of the war in Donbas do not appear in the sample, but the tone changes: from certainty to perplexity.
The thread that refuses to die
Over the years, the thread becomes a cult object. Someone claims their "Soviet star" for having been the first to open it. Another asks for it to be pinned. In 2020, a message declares: "With everything happening due to cobi19, now comes the war." In 2022, the prophecy comes true. "Prophetic message," someone replies. "You have to be very retarded to put Zelensky in a 2013 thread when back then he was playing piano with his penis on TV," retorts another, with usual elegance.
What the thread got right (and wrong)
The balance is bittersweet. The general diagnosis was correct: Ukraine was a powder keg, EU and Russia had irreconcilable visions, and war — cold or hot — was on the table. Details failed: almost no one believed Kyiv would resist, that the EU would hold firm, or that Zelensky would become a global leader. Most messages from 2013 and 2014 assume Russia will get its way. History, as usual, did what it pleased.
The disorienting data: the thread peine in 2013 and remains alive in 2024. Eleven years later, the discussion has not ended. And those who then laughed at the "prin g a os" wanting to join the EU now see how Ukraine still requests accession while the war continues. No one won the argument. But the thread, against all odds, is still there.
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