lowfour
Crackity Jones
- Desde
- 23 Oct 2008
- Mensajes
- 12.527
- Reputación
- 64.186
China CDC has published a fascinating paper describing the outbreak, based on ~72K cases (confirmed, suspected, clinically diagnosed & asymptomatic). 44,672 of them are lab confirmed, making this the biggest data set seen from this outbreak.
They report that there have been no superspreaders, or superspreading events recorded in health care facilities to date. That suggests the earlier reports of 1 patient infecting 14 health workers may have been misunderstood?
Despite the good news on the lack of superspreading, 1716 HCWs had been infected with the bichito by Feb. 11, & 5 had died. They include an epi curve of those infections. While confirmed HCW cases have dwindled, clinically diagnosed & suspected ones continue.
The paper includes the most detailed breakdown I've seen of ages of cases & deaths by age group. 1 teenager has died. But deaths really tick up from 50 yo and older. The fatality rate among confirmed cases 80 & older is unsettling.
The gender breakdown is interesting. Early on it seemed like men were more likely to be infected, but that isn't true. However, men do make up about 2/3s of the fatal cases. There is no indication of whether there are age differences in the male vs. female cases.
The authors say the case data suggest multiple jumps from an animal source to people in the beginning of the outbreak, with the bichito taking off human-2-human after. The genetic sequences don't support this, do they
El paper cmrivers/ncov
Salu2
Vamos, que la tasa de fin no llega ni al 0'5% (menos que una gripeeeeeee) en la gente menor de 50 años y sin embargo alcanza al 14% en los de más de 80%. Vamos, que desestabiliza a gente ya bastante frágil.
Y los zombies que nos prometieron?