Hace ya mucho tiempo que hemos comentado esto. Es sólo que yo esperaba una suerte de "new normal" donde se estandarizaran nuevos márgenes de deuda, y nuevos ratios en general. No caí en la cuenta de que, claramente, algunos países, como Alemania, no están por la labor de esto, y tienen fuerza suficiente. Así que esta es la alternativa más plausible y previsible: manipular el PIB al alza en aquellos países que lo necesiten. Evidentemente España, Italia, Irlanda y Reino Unido se subirán a este carro de forma inmediata. Y otros países probablemente tambien, a medida que se vayan acercando los respectivos compromisos electorales.
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It is fascinating to observe human greed and behavior at work.
A few months ago, I wrote to you about how we are being fooled by the government in how they calculate the GDP data in this country. Again, in November, I warned you again about this trickery.
Today I want to warn you about this tomfoolery spreading across the globe and what this can miccionan for you as an investor.
While I was in Europe a couple of weeks ago, I got a chance to exchange notes with a senior economist of one of the largest European banks. I was compelled to ask him how he did not know about the trickery that factored into the U.S. GDP data fruta.
His response actually shocked me.
He stated that everyone knows about the change in methodology of GDP calculations that the United States has imposed. Privately everyone is appalled at how inconsistent and wrong this change is. Yet they are all burying their heads in the sand and turning an oblivious eye to this change.
In fact, he mentioned that France is planning to adopt this methodology change itself soon. And he suspects others will also trinc.
When I asked him why they are adopting this stance, his answer was simple.
The world of bankers and investment managers are so tired of waiting for real growth and so frustrated that after five years we do not see a real recovery that they are willing to assume a mirage is the real deal. They knowingly turn a blind eye to the fiction-based GDP rates and externally embrace it just to make some money.
Folks, there you have it. Greed and survival in its purest, naked form.
To heck with diligence! In fact, even when we see a lie, let's all assume that it is the truth. We can go one step further and start lying to ourselves too. All of this just to mask that we do not have real recovery, but as long as we all consistently lie together, who will be able to disprove the lie. Talk about global collusion! Just like the LIBOR scandal, the currency-rigging scandal and several other bank scandals. This one hits home because it just
artificially raises the whole world GDP standards and installs fake confidence to allow clueless investors to take unjustified risks.
Just this week, a major investor conference on emerging markets concluded in London. About 200 Banks participated in the convention, and they are now all bullish on emerging markets and are all committing to sell the concept again to their clients (read you!) to invest in emerging markets. From being bearish on the same markets for the past six months, they are now bullish, as the GDP numbers will all outshine, as compared with the last five years, and we will be lulled into a false sense of security that the world is all well now.
Frankly folks, I like to invest in something real.
I have extolled the virtues of gold previously. This time around, it is an easier concept to swallow, as gold has been steadily rising for the past several weeks now and is showing signs of staging an impressive recovery.
Caveat emptor and happy investing.
