The Times: Housing bubble is finally at bursting point

Muy buen articulo con ideas muy interesantes para incorporar en los debates:
Mr Ashley Seager ha mejorado y mucho respecto su artículo anterior. :) Good article, better than thelast one.

-las subidas de precios no generan riqueza a un pais, si no transfers de dinero futurible de unos a otros.
-las subidas de precios generan endeudamiento, liquidación de ahorros, y que este dinero desviado en tochos, deja de poder ser utilizado en tejido productivo
-las subidas de precios frenan la movilidad laboral hacia los lugares donde hay más demanda de obreros, pero donde los precios de la vivienda han subido más.
-la comunidad ha de participar de las plusvalias y no solo los pasapiseros, lo cual hasta ahora magnifica constrastes entre las clases más pudientes y las menos pudientes.
-las segundas viviendas han de tener unos impuestos mucho mayores
-...

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1984814,00.html
Enlace obtenido via: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

A land tax is 200 years overdue

A levy on what lies beneath our overpriced houses could reduce society's inequalities

Ashley Seager, economics correspondent
Monday January 8, 2007
The Guardian
ashley_seager_140x140.jpg


We have now lived through 10 years of New Labour and a massive housing boom.

The two are inextricably linked and the latter goes to the heart of understanding why there is still an excluded underclass in Britain.

relleniton Brown said in his budget speech of 1997: "I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the recovery."

Since then house prices have tripled, adding £2.5 trillion to the wealth of those owning residential property - equivalent to two years' national output.


Last year Tony Blair said: "There is a group of people who have been shut out of society's mainstream and we have not yet found a way of bringing them in properly."

He fretted about the issue again in last week's new year message. Labour has been rattled by its inability to narrow income inequality.

Might there be a connection between that huge untaxed wealth gain and the fact that the excluded people Labour are concerned about are generally living in rented property? You bet. Does economics offer insights into what could be done? You bet.

The government's response is to try and raise the share of home ownership from 72% now to 80%.
But how they think someone on £15,000 a year can afford the average of £150,000 that first-time buyers are paying is beyond me.

Beware of the bull
The problem, they imply, is not so much that property prices have risen so fast but that not everybody can share in the gains. But as Martin Weale, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, puts it: "People say that not everyone is benefiting from house price rises. The problem is that house prices are rising in the first place."
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Residential property is an unproductive asset.
If all houses rise in price, we do not, as a society, get richer.
As Mr Weale noted in a fine paper last year, rising house prices do not create wealth, they merely transfer resources from people who will own houses in the future to those who own them at present.
Traducción adaptada: La subida de precios de vivienda no genera riqueza a un país, solo meramente transfiere los recursos de la gente que en un futuro poseerá vivienda algun dia, a aquellos que ya tienen viviendas actualmente. La subida de precios de vivienda no genera riqueza a un país.
Rising house prices have also led to a huge rise in debt, a drop in savings and a "crowding out" of investment in more productive enterprise.
Sigo adaptando la traducción para que se entienda mejor la idea: Subiendo el precio de la vivienda, además conlleva un enorme aumento de deudas, una caida en la capacidad de ahorro, y una fuga masiva de dinero que debería servir para invertir en empresas más productivas y generadoras de riqueza real.
The fact that house prices have risen far faster in the south-east than elsewhere also inhibits labour mobility because someone in Scotland - where prices have only doubled over the last decade, not tripled, and from a much lower base - finds it hard to move south.

The government's raising of stamp duty has also discouraged people from moving and has been blamed for pushing up prices by inhibiting supply. Housing stock is not being used efficiently.

There has been a global housing boom, of course, but it has been bigger in the UK than elsewhere. Even allowing for Britain's lack of housebuilding and its rapid population growth, Mr Weale thinks house prices here are 20% or 30% above the level that can be explained by the supply and demand.

The gap could be down to the fact that house price gains are not taxed, meaning it is has a tax advantage over any other type of asset, even after stamp duty and inheritance tax are taken into account. Last year, inheritance tax and stamp duty raised £8bn, just 2% of the £340bn that house prices rose by in total, which is nearly four times the total NHS budget.
The idea that these taxes are too high is laughable.

And people withdrew about £45bn of this untaxed capital gain last year to spend on things such as second homes, new cars and deposits for their children's houses. Was that money available to renters? No chance.

Consider this: The government builds a new school in an area. The school is a success. This pushes up the house prices in the area leading to a windfall, untaxed gain for home owners as a direct result of government spending. The teachers in the school, on their modest salaries, will probably not be able to buy a house close to the school. There is clearly a problem here.

Fred Harrison, research director at the Land Research Trust, has just published a book on this "great tax clawback scam".

It works as amows: Someone in the bottom 20% of the income spectrum pays about £250,000 in taxes in their lifetime. Someone in the top 20% pays £1.2m in taxes.

But those at the top will own property and see their total tax liability wiped out in just a couple of years by rising property values. This does not happen to the bottom 20%, since they are renters.

Mr Harrison points out that the Blairs' London house rose by nearly £1m in value in the past year alone, accounting for a huge chunk of their total lifetime tax payments.

Thus the rich get a free ride on the backs of the poor.

This is the fundamental reason, Mr Harrison says, why the welfare state of the past 60 years has not worked.

So what is to be done?
Mr Harrison, Mr Weale and other economists say the burden of taxation needs to be shifted off income and profits and on to those untaxed gains in property values. In short, we need a land value tax.

The wealth of other nations
This is a not a new idea.
Adam Smith argued two centuries ago that such a tax was a "peculiarly suitable" way to raise revenue since it did not distort people's incentives to work, save and invest. Churchill favoured a land value tax, as did Lloyd George.

Mr Weale advocates a tax charged on residential property at 1% of its value each year, replacing council tax.

Mr Harrison, and others such as David Reed at the Labour Land Campaign and Dave Wetzel of the Professional Land Reform Group, argue for a tax on all land to encourage its more efficient use.

Think of the 13-hectare Battersea Power Station site, which has stood derelict since 1982.
It was sold last month for £400m by a developer who bought it for £10m in 1993. A yearly tax on its value would have focused owners' minds on making better use of it.

House buyers would factor an annual tax on the value of the land under the house into calculations of what they would be prepared to pay for it. This would lower prices and discourage speculation.

Second homes would carry a higher cost than they do now.

This is not about raising more tax revenue.
The revenue from a land value tax would be used, for example, to scrap stamp duty and/or council tax or to reduce income tax or VAT, which is highly regressive.

Many countries, such as Denmark and Australia, already have some form of value tax.

Hong Kong - that bastion of free-market capitalism - has no private land ownership at all.
Land is owned by the state and leased.


A land value tax is hard to avoid.
The world's super rich who spend much of the year in London but avoid paying income tax could not avoid the tax on a big house in Mayfair.

Land has a scarcity value when it is in desirable locations. That value is not down to individual effort but derives from the community, and often from schools, hospitals and parks provided by the public purse.
Therefore, as the economist David Ricardo explained, land has a rental value that can be taxed.

Mr Blair and Mr Brown regularly call for national debates.

Let's have one on a subject that could make the New Labour project actually work.

· The Housing Market and Government Policy, Martin Weale, NIESR Economic Review No 195, 2006

· Ricardo's Law: House Prices and the Great Tax Clawback Scam, Fred Harrison (Shepheard-Walwyn) 2006

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Genial. Genial. Genial. Me ha encantao. Si alguien tiene tiempo y paciencia, estaría bien que lo tradujese para ver si algun pez rellenito aunque solo sea "socialdemócrata" se impregna con alguna de las ideas que emana el artículo. ;)
 
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-las segundas viviendas han de tener unos impuestos mucho mayores

La compra de segunda vivienda debería tener un IVA de superlujo (25% por ejemplo). En el impuesto de patrimonío deberían cotizar a un tipo muy superior al habitual del impuesto de patrimonio.
 
EEUU: en 2007 se espera un record de impagos en el sector inmobiliario. Como muestra bien vale un botón (Dallas):

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...eclose_19bus.ART0.State.Edition1.1cbec53.html
Foreclosure lists near 1989 record

Adjustable-rate loans and consumer debt are blamed


08:08 AM CST on Friday, January 19, 2007
By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News

Dallas-Fort Worth home foreclosure postings are still growing – fueled by higher payments on adjustable-rate loans and rising consumer debt.

The latest statistics show that pending foreclosures in Dallas County are 12 percent higher than a year ago and foreclosure postings are up 16 percent in Tarrant County.

Because of weather delays and other factors, some monthly statistics prepared by Addison-based Foreclosure Listing Service were unavailable on Thursday, including figures for Collin County.

Even so, the 1,940 homes in Dallas County and 1,274 Tarrant County homes threatened with foreclosure are approaching record highs, said George Roddy, president of Foreclosure Listing Service.

"This is getting serious," Mr. Roddy said. "This level is getting very close to the all-time records set in 1989, when an average of 2,000 postings were filed monthly on Dallas County residences."

Back then, it was a regional recession that caused the number of home foreclosures to spike.

This go-around it's often because of poor consumer choices, credit analysts say.

"Some of them got into more house than they can afford," said Gail Cunningham with Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Greater Dallas.

Rising interest rates on home mortgages have also caused some homeowners to default on their loans.

Many homeowners are also swamped with credit card bills, Ms. Cunningham said.

"During the Christmas holidays, everyone gets caught up in the moment and overspends," she said. "Now the bills are beginning to arrive."

While many analysts are predicting that the inflated housing market will have a "soft landing," Ms. Cunningham said she isn't as optimistic.

"In the trenches where the real folks are, they are feeling the pinch," she said.

The increases in February foreclosure postings in Dallas and Tarrant counties amow even bigger percentage jumps in January, according to Foreclosure Listing Service.

And Mr. Roddy said he's noticed some subtle changes in the types of loans facing foreclosure.

"I'm seeing a little pickup in home equity loans, but adjustable-rate loans still lead the pack," he said.

February's foreclosure postings appear to be the highest in the current housing cycle. But based on the size of today's housing market, the number of home foreclosures in the D-FW area is less alarming than it was in the late 1980s, Mr. Roddy said.

"Proportionately, we are not in the doghouse like we were in 1988 and 1989."

E-mail stevebrown@dallasnews.com
 
>> 47 << dijo:
Más consecuencias de la burbuja nipona...

http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/waiwai/news/20070205p2g00m0dm022000c.html

Companies and cops lumbered with bubble-era buffoons
Es evidente en qué nos parecemos a los nipos: en el burbujón y en lo bien que esta burbuja y la anterior han funcionado para petar entes públicos y empresas privadas de ejemplos de libro del principio de Peter.

¿En qué no nos parecemos a los nipos?

Un, dos, tres, responda otra vez...
 
poliorcetes dijo:
¿En qué no nos parecemos a los nipos?

Un, dos, tres, responda otra vez...

Pues a los nipos nos parecemos en bien poco. Su cultura es radicalmente distinta, totalmente basada en la sumisión que nace desde tiempos ancestrales apoyada en el budismo.

En lo económico, exportan a porrillo, y son líderes claros en las áreas fundamentales de las economías occidentales: Automoción, electrónica...

Arrasan en I+D: Mira por ejemplo quien lidera todas las nuevas tecnologías en energías renovables y eficiencia energética, quien fabrica casi todos los componentes complejos en la industria aeronáutica...

Su burbuja pinchó con tipos a la baja y tras 25 años de crecimiento económico brutal. Su gran error es que son muy nacionalistas, todo se quedó en Japón y semejante entrada de dinero infló los precios hasta límites insospechados.

En españa NO ha habido ese crecimiento económico brutal, ese aumento radical de exportaciones. Ojalá nuestra burbuja fuera porque nuestro tejido industrial está que se sale y exportaramos tanto que lo ingresado llegara a malgastarse en inflar precios de activos.

En españa sólo ha habido crédito fácil+paletismo.

En Japón pinchó la burbuja porque un país trabajador y que basa su modelo económico en I+D y exportaciones no pinta nada burbujeando. Han tardado 15 años en volver a crecer, pero han salido con elegancia. Japón en todo momento ha seguido siendo una referencia internacional y un país ejemplar en los productivo e industrial.

España... juas juas juas... España va a ser el hazme reir. Dudo que nos quede otra salida que no sea hermanarnos con Venezuela o México, poner de moda los secuestros express a turistas y convertirnos en la guano que nuestro espíritu lleva dentro.
 
En EEUU se abandona la retórica de que "lo peor ya ha pasado".

Ben Bernanke (presidente de la Fed) afirmó hoy lo siguiente sobre la evolución del mercado inmobiliario en EEUU:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2007/february/testimony.htm
The risks to this outlook are significant. To the downside, the ultimate extent of the housing market correction is difficult to forecast and may prove greater than we anticipate. Similarly, spillover effects from developments in the housing market onto consumer spending and employment in housing-related industries may be more pronounced than expected.
14 Feb 2007

Traducción.

En este panorama hay riesgos sustanciales. Es dificil predecir hasta que punto llegará la "corrección" en el mercado inmobiliario y podría resultar peor de lo que esperábamos. Paralelamente, el impacto del (la caída del) mercado inmobiliario sobre el consumo familiar y el empleo podría ser mayor de lo previsto.

Por cierto, esto podría considerarse un indicio de que la Fed bajará los tipos el próximo trimestre.
 
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EEUU, la NAR detecta la mayor bajada mensual de precios de vivienda.

Record home price slump
Fourth-quarter report from National Association of Realtors shows largest price drop on record as markets with price declines now outpace those with gains.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
February 15 2007: 6:46 PM EST


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The slump in home prices was both deeper and more widespread than ever in the fourth quarter, according to a trade group report Thursday.

Prices slumped 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter a year earlier, according to the report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That's the biggest year-over-year drop on record and amows a 1.0 percent year-over-year decline in the third quarter.


In addition, 73 metropolitan areas reported a decline in the fourth quarter, compared to a year earlier. That outpaced the 71 that saw a gain. It was both a record number and percentage of markets showing a decline in the group's quarterly report. Five markets saw prices unchanged.
...
 
Durante un par de meses, se ha intentado publicitar en EEUU la idea de que lo peor había pasado ya y que el mercado inmobiliario había tocado fondo. Nadie (de entre los círculos de nuncabajistas americanos) se percató de lo mal que se iban a comportar las hipotecas "subprime" y, muy probablemente muchas de las hipotecas "prime" a las que tambien está llegando su San Martín.

Tampoco tuvieron en cuenta el efecto "pobreza" de la caída de precios de vivienda. Y todavía falta lo peor: hay centenares de miles de empleos en riesgo, sólo en el sector de la construcción. También el consumo de las familias (70% del PIB) está en riesgo con unos salarios menguantes y reducidas posibilidades de extraer liquidez de la vivienda.

Este será un año "interesante" en EEUU y de lo mejor o peor que resulte el desenlace tendremos importantes efectos en el resto de las economías. Aunque ahí tenemos a los eternos optimistas diciendo que el resto de las economías se desacoplarán de lo que pueda suceder en EEUU.

También será un año interesante en España: a ver como resulta "la vuelta a la normalidad" inmobiliaria.
 
Este articulo lo encontre por casualidad, buscando un ranking mundial de ratios entre precios de vivienda y sueldos... lo pongo aqui, aunque es un poco viejo, de hace un anyo.


http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/news/news.cfm?doc_id=5579


Spain Has More Reason To Quit The Euro Than Italy
Financial Times
February 20 2006
By Wolfgang Munchau


There was a revealing incident at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year. Nouriel Roubini, the New York-based international economist, took part in a panel discussion during which he raised questions about Italy's future in the eurozone. A fellow panellist was Giulio Tremonti, the Italian finance minister. Professor Roubini wrote in his web log* that his presentation "caused a stir with Minister Tremonti who interrupted me in the middle of my remarks, went into a temper tantrum and shouted: 'Go back to Turkey!' I happen to have been born in Istanbul."

Perhaps one should not conclude too much from this incident, but it does show one thing: European officials are getting nervous about the future of the euro. A few years ago, no one would have raised an eyebrow.

Italy is often mentioned as the country most likely to leave the euro. I disagree. Leaving the euro would not solve any of Italy's problems. Since Italy's debt is mostly euro-denominated, Italy would be facing an Argentinian-style debt crisis. A wise Italian politician told me recently that Italy was more likely to disintegrate as a nation state than to leave the euro.

If any country ever decided to quit, unlikely as this may be, that country would be Spain, not Italy. Over the past seven years, Spain has lost even more competitiveness against the eurozone than Italy. At the same time, Spain is also in a better position to quit. With a debt-to-gross-domestic- product ratio of just over 40 per cent, Spain would have no problem servicing its debts.

Unlike Italy, Spain enjoys the reputation of a European success story. But its economic success rests on shaky ground. It was driven by a housing bubble, during which average property prices have increased almost threefold since 1997. The US and UK housing markets have been well behaved by comparison.

The Spanish housing bubble was caused by a combination of financial deregulation, rising domestic incomes and strong demand from foreign investors. Deregulation has a one-off effect. The contribution of the other two will fade over time. Spain is no doubt an attractive country to live in. But northern Europeans will not continue to invest in a skyrocketing Spanish property market for ever. There is a lot of cheap real estate around the Mediterranean, for example, in Croatia and Turkey.

The house-price bubble has kept the Spanish economy ticking over - and overshadowed Spain's underlying problem of falling competitiveness. Successive Spanish governments have failed to put in place the one condition essential for a country to prosper in the eurozone in the long run - a sufficient degree of wage and price flexibility. Since the beginning of monetary union in 1999, Spain gradually lost competitiveness against the rest of the eurozone, as its inflation rate exceeded the eurozone's by an average of more than 1 percentage point each year. Last year, the gap widened to 1.5 percentage points. If this were to go on for another seven years, there would hardly be a Spanish export industry left.

The country's current account deficit for the first 11 months of 2005 reached 7.3 per cent of GDP. In its latest autumn forecast, the European Commission put the current account deficit at 8.3 per cent this year, and 9.1 per cent in 2007. These are unsustainable levels.

There are some parallels - and one fundamental difference - between Spain and the US. Both countries have a housing bubble - and plenty of economists in denial over it. In both countries, consumers are spending as if there is no tomorrow. And both have lost global competitiveness.

The difference is that Spain is a member of a monetary union. The only way for Spain to regain lost competitiveness is through a long period of wage moderation. The eventual adjustment in the US economy will almost certainly be eased through a weaker dollar.

In Spain, the ratio of average house prices to average incomes is much higher than in other countries with property bubbles. Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, noted that construction makes up an incredible 17 per cent of Spain's GDP -which is higher than in Germany right after unification**. He predicts that north and south European economies will eventually trade places. German economic growth will gradually improve, while Spain is about to experience a German-style economic stagnation, or worse.

While Spain is more likely to leave the eurozone than Italy, the odds of either country quitting are still small. If faced with a straight choice of a long economic depression and an even longer period of political isolation within the EU, both countries would opt for the former. The real danger for the eurozone is not a break-up, but continued failure. As the boom-bust cycle turns ugly, we should expect to see more irascible finance ministers in southern Europe.
 
Hace una semana, Goldman Sach en la primera conferencia inmobiliaria que organiza presentó el siguiente gráfico de cómo la crisis inmobiliaria en EEUU penalizaría el PIB americano:

gsgdpsmall.jpg


A todo el mundo financiero, ha sorprendido la apuesta burbujista clara de este banco de inversión, uno de los más grandes del mundo.

Un Saludo.
 
Gracias por esa joya (no me parece estar exagerando). La he subido al wiki que lancé hace unos días para complementar a burbuja.info y organizar mejor la información que consideremos más relevante sin el miedo permanente a que el hilo se corra hacia abajo y/o aumente tanto de posts que, en cualquiera de los dos casos, perdamos aquella info que queríamos rescatar.

Aprovecho para invitarte a que incluyas en el wiki los documentos que creas más relevante y, de paso, a preguntarte qué te parece la idea.

saludos y eso
 
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