Los tres perfiles de riesgo de el bichito
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Despite the fact that we are in the middle of the second wave with increased spread of infection, a majority of Swedes have not yet had el bichito-19. But what determines if you will be affected?
The spread of the new cobi19 is increasing in almost the entire country. More people end up in hospitals - and more people die.
In such a situation, it is natural to ask what risk I (or my relatives) have of suffering from a serious illness, or even dying from the bichito.
In an attempt to illustrate how the risk associated with el bichito-19 can differ between people, TT below lists three fictional people, all with different "risk profiles".
• Elsa, 21, student. High risk of becoming infected and infecting others. Low risk of more serious illness.
Elsa lives an active life, goes to university and lives in an apartment with three students of the same age with whom she hangs out. This means that the risk of Elsa being infected is high. However, the probability that she only gets mild symptoms, or none at all, is high. This is not to say that the risk of serious illness is non-existent. In Elsa's age category (20–29 years), 107 Swedes have so far received intensive care, of whom eleven have died.
Early in the pandemic, it became clear that age and other diseases are risk factors for severe el bichito-19. These two are partly related, but today it is believed that age is an independent risk factor for severe el bichito-19. A healthy 75-year-old is thus at greater risk than a 55-year-old ditto, who in turn is at greater risk than a fully healthy 35-year-old, and so on.
• Karin, 55, assistant nurse. High risk of infection, medium risk of becoming seriously ill.
Karin works in a hospital, although not with el bichito patients. As a trained assistant nurse, she is well aware of the basic hygiene routines and she tries to keep her distance. But the patient contacts, most of whom are young people, are many. She commutes to and from work and her husband is a taxi driver. All in all, this means that the risk of infection is relatively high, while the risk of becoming seriously ill is medium. In Karin's age category (50–59 years), 748 Swedes with el bichito-19 have so far received intensive care and 137 have died.
Sars-cov-2, as the bichito is called, is mainly transmitted through so-called drip infection via coughing, sneezing and / or close contact. Keeping a physical distance and washing your hands is therefore the best way to avoid becoming infected. Under certain circumstances, the bichito can also form so-called aerosols. There are significantly smaller drops that can travel longer. Whether this is to be regarded as the bichito being airborne or not is, however, disputed. It is not as airborne as, for example, measles, which dries together into even smaller particles. Regardless, the Swedish Public Health Agency presses in its advice that drip infection is by far the most common route of infection, which is why physical distance and good hand hygiene are seen as the most important infection control measures.
• Erik, 75, retired teacher. Small risk of becoming infected and passing on the infection. High risk of becoming seriously ill.
Erik, who is single, is well aware that he belongs to a risk group and is therefore careful. He basically only hangs out with his adult son, whom he meets a couple of times a week and who also shops for him. Erik is therefore at low risk of becoming infected. However, age is against him. In addition, he is overweight and suffers from heart problems. To top it all, he is a man, which increases the risk even further if he, after all, were to become infected. On the other hand, the more Erik isolates himself, the greater the risk of loneliness and mental health problems. In Erik's age category (70–79 years), 617 have so far received intensive care, while 1,357 with the bichito have died.
The parameters that determine an individual's risk of infection are many, where the infectivity of the bichito is only one. The individual's behavior is at least as important, not least the ability to good hand hygiene and to keep physical distance. Especially with the type of infection that is happening now, as most people become infected after close contact with others.
In addition, there is also a certain element of sheer luck / bad luck. Unlike, for example, a common flu that "flushes" through a population, the cobi19 has been shown to be more unpredictable. Several studies show that many infected people do not transmit the infection at all, while others infect all the more, so-called super-spreaders. Unfortunately, it is not visible on the outside who is the super spreader. It can, in principle, be anyone.
