Voy a publicar la actualización antes de lo habitual, porque tengo algunas cosas que hacer por la noche.
Esta actualización trata principalmente sobre números.
Después de analizar prácticamente todos los países importantes, desde el inicio temprano de la esa época en el 2020 de la que yo le hablo, logré establecer una correlación teórica entre las cifras oficiales, las cifras reales, la cantidad de pruebas, los umbrales que se alcanzan en positividad, las medidas que se deben tomar y cuando.
Obviamente habrá diferencias entre países, porque cada país tiene sus particularidades, pero en general, creo que logré llegar a cifras que pueden y deben ser consideradas como una guía.
En la primavera, según mi modelo, el número real de personas infectadas era de 8 a 10 veces (como número medio) mayor que el número oficial de casos, principalmente porque las pruebas eran bastante bajas.
Desde entonces, logré calcular un valor mucho más cercano a la realidad, que es diferente para cada umbral de positividad.
He establecido 6 umbrales: 1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 15% y 20% de pruebas positivas, en el número oficial de pruebas.
Otro número que he calculado (como mínimo requerido) es el número de pruebas que hay que hacer para detectar el mayor número de casos posible y tener cierto control sobre la propagación.
Ese número es de 1.000 pruebas por cada 1.000.000 de personas por día. Este número es suficiente hasta un 3% de positividad, y en ciertos países, con un buen rastreo de contactos, es suficiente incluso hasta un 5% de positividad.
Hasta un 3% de positividad, todo debe ser normal, y las máscaras deben RECOMENDARSE en espacios cerrados (no hogares, guarderías, escuelas, etc.), como lugares de trabajo, tiendas, etc.
Una vez que un país alcanza un 3% de positividad y no tiene una buena capacidad de rastreo de contactos (la gran mayoría de los países no la tienen), la cantidad de pruebas debe aumentarse a 1.500 / 1 mil. personas / día.
Las máscaras deben ser obligatorias, no recomendadas, los eventos y reuniones deben limitarse a menos de 100 personas al aire libre y 50 en el interior, las escuelas deben prepararse para las clases en línea.
Una vez que un país alcanza el 5% de positividad, la prueba debería aumentar a 2000/1 mil. personas / día, para seguir el ritmo de la infección.
Las máscaras deben ser obligatorias en los lugares de trabajo y escuelas, así como en todos los demás lugares mencionados anteriormente. La capacidad de bares, pubs y restaurantes debe limitarse al 50% en el interior. El transporte también debe ser limitado, pero es imposible hacerlo en una gran área urbana.
Además, cuando se alcanza un 5% de positividad, la mayoría de las pruebas deben realizarse en grandes áreas urbanas, por razones obvias.
El umbral del 5% de positividad es probablemente el más importante, y si este umbral se mantiene o aumenta, en las condiciones de 2.000 pruebas / 1 mil. personas / día, el país que se encuentra en esta posición, debe prepararse para restricciones más severas.
Al 5%, el rastreo de contactos se vuelve difícil en la mayoría de los países.
Si las medidas que mencioné anteriormente no funcionan (por varias razones), y el país se dirige a un 10% de positividad en las pruebas oficiales, el control sobre la propagación está a punto de perderse.
Simultáneamente, al llegar al 10%, un país debe hacer lo siguiente:
-Se mantendrán todas las medidas en su lugar.
-Las escuelas deberían cerrar a nivel nacional.
-La capacidad de prueba aumentó a al menos 2500 pruebas / 1 mil. personas / día. 3.000 es mejor, pero bastante difícil de conseguir para la mayoría de los países.
-Bares, pubs, restaurantes, peluquerías y salones de manicura, otros no esenciales deben cerrar hasta que la positividad caiga nuevamente al 5% o más. Ni 2 semanas, ni 17 días, ni números arbitrarios que se les ocurran a algunos políticos.
-Todos los eventos y reuniones (incluidas las religiosas) deben suspenderse.
-Viajes internacionales y nacionales limitados a viajes esenciales únicamente.
Para comprender lo que significa un 10% de positividad, a 2500 pruebas / 1 mil. personas, usaré los Estados Unidos y la República Checa como ejemplos. Un país grande frente a un país pequeño, pero no tan pequeño como para perderse ciertos detalles (como grandes áreas urbanas, turismo, conexiones de viajes internacionales, etc.).
Tanto EE. UU. Como Chequia son capaces, en este momento, de realizar 3000 pruebas / 1 mil. personas / día, EE. UU. con 975.000 pruebas / día y Chequia con aproximadamente 30.000 pruebas / día.
Ahora especificaré la correlación entre la positividad de las pruebas oficiales y el número real de infectados, para la situación en la que estamos AHORA, y no en la primavera.
Con un 1% de positividad en las pruebas oficiales, el número real es un poco más alto. El rastreo de contactos no es un problema.
Al 3%, el número real es significativamente mayor, pero no el doble del número oficial de casos. El rastreo de contactos, siempre que el número de pruebas se aumente a 1500/1 mil./día no es un problema.
Al 5%, el número real de infectados es el doble o superior, siempre que el número de pruebas alcance los 2.000 / 1 mil. / día. Si es menor, el rastreo de contactos se convierte en un problema. Muchos casos pasan desapercibidos.
Al 10%, el número real es aproximadamente 3 veces mayor, siempre que el número de pruebas sea de 2500 a 3000/1 mil. / día. El rastreo de contactos se vuelve difícil para todos los países, sin importar de qué país sea.
Ahora, en t
I am going to post the update earlier than usual, because I have some shit to do in the evening.
This update is largely about numbers.
After looking at pretty much every significant country, from the early onset of the pandemic, I managed to establish a theoretical correlation between official numbers, real numbers, number of tests, the thresholds that are reached in positivity, what measures have to be taken and when.
Obviously there will be differences between countries, because every country have its specifics, but generally speaking, I think I managed to get to numbers that can and should be considered as a guideline.
Back in the Spring, based on my model, the real number of infected people was 8 to 10 times (as a median number) bigger then the official number of cases, mainly because the testing was pretty damn low.
Since then, I managed to calculate a much closer value to reality, that is different for each threshold of positivity.
I have set 6 thresholds : 1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% of positive tests, in the official number of tests.
Another number that I have calculated (as a minimum required) is the number of tests that have to be done, in order to detect as many cases as possible, and have some control on the spread.
That number is 1,000 tests per 1,000,000 people per day. This number is enough up to a 3% positivity, and in certain countries, with good contact tracing, it is enough even up to 5% positivity.
Up to 3% positivity, all things should be normal, and masks should be RECOMMENDED in enclosed spaces (not homes, nurseries, schools, etc.), like workplaces, shops, etc.
Once a country reaches 3% positivity, and doesn't have a good contact tracing capability (the vast majority of countries don't), the number of tests should be increased to 1,500 / 1 mil. people / day.
Masks should be mandatory, not recommended, events and gatherings should be limited to under 100 people outdoors and 50 indoors, schools should prepare for on-line classes.
Once a country reaches 5% positivity, the testing should increase to 2,000 / 1 mil. people / day, to keep the pace with the infection.
Masks should be mandatory in workplaces and schools, as well as all the other places mentioned earlier. Bars, pubs, restaurants capacity should be capped to 50% inside. Transport should be also limited, but it is impossible to do it in a large urban area.
Also, when reaching 5% positivity, most testing should be done in large urban areas, for obvious reasons.
The threshold of 5% positivity is probably the most important one, and if this threshold is maintained or rises, in the conditions of 2,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the country that is in this position, should prepare for harsher restrictions.
At 5%, contact tracing becomes difficult, for most countries.
If the measures I have mentioned earlier do not work (for various reasons), and the country is heading to 10% positivity in official testing, the control over the spread is about to be lost.
Simultaneously, when reaching 10%, a country should do the amowing :
-All measures in place will be maintained.
-Schools should close, nation-wide.
-Testing capacity increased to at least 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people / day. 3,000 is better, but pretty damn hard to do for most countries.
-Bars, pubs, restaurants, hair and nail saloons, other non-essentials should close until the positivity drop again to 5% or bellow. Not 2 weeks, not 17 days, not any arbitrary numbers some politicians come up with.
-All events and gatherings (including religious) should be suspended.
-International and national travel limited to essential travel only.
To understand what 10% positivity means, at 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people, I will use the U.S. and Czechia as examples. A big country vs a small country, but not as small as to miss certain specifics (like large urban areas, tourism, international travel connections, etc.).
Both the U.S. and Czechia are capable, at this moment, to make 3,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the U.S. with 975,000 tests / day and Czechia with roughly 30,000 tests / day.
Now I will specify the correlation between the positivity from official tests and the real number of infected, for the situation where we are NOW, and not in the spring.
At 1% positivity in official testing, the real number is just slightly higher. Contact tracing is a non-issue.
At 3%, the real number is significantly higher, but not double then offcial number of cases. Contact tracing, as long as the number of tests is increased to 1,500/ 1 mil./ day is a non-issue.
At 5%, the real number of infected is double or higher, as long as the number of tests is reaching 2,000 / 1 mil. / day. If it's less, contact tracing becomes an issue. Lots of cases are going undetected.
At 10%, the real number is about 3 times higher, as long as the number of tests is 2,500-3,000 / 1 mil. / day. Contact tracing becomes difficult for every country, no matter which country it is.
Now, on the U.S. and Czechia example, when they reach 10% positivity in official testing, and the real numbers.
The U.S. would have 97.5k official cases / day, Czechia 3,000 cases / day. The real number of infected would be close to 300k for the U.S. and 9k for Czechia.
Assuming a good contact tracing, assuming that the required measures are in place and assuming that a large part of the population do abide, the trend will be reversed in 2 to 3 weeks.
Czechia did not took the necessary measures when they reached 3,000 cases / day ( 9,000 in reality). They did it at almost 10k cases / day, and only implemented PARTIALLY the measures that should have in place.
Assuming a contact tracing that is able to track the ALL the contacts of 3,000 official cases, and that number is usually 4-5 contacts / case / 2 weeks, as a median numbers, Czechia would be capable to track up to 15k people, related to those 3,000 cases they found.
However, they will MISS another 6,000 cases from testing, and those 6,000 cases contacts would amount to 24-30k people, that Czechia won't detect...because they are contacts of undetected cases through official testing.
At 10% positivity, assuming 3,000 tests / 1 mil. / day, a country, ANY country contact tracing become irrelevant. The majority of the infected people are not tested, and the contacts of the official cases are significantly less that the real number of contacts.
No wonder Czechia didn't managed to stop their trend, because the measures that should have been in place at 10% positivity, were barely implemented at 20% positivity.
The 10% threshold is the second most important one.
The 5% one is when the trend CAN BE REVERSED quickly enough. At 10%, the trend is basically impossible to reverse, without the necessary measures, and EVERY COUNTRY that is big enough (over 7-8 million people) and have at least a major urban area (1 million or over), and doesn't implement those measures, will reach 15% positivity in a matter of weeks.
When reaching 15% positivity, the control over the pandemic is lost. If measures are in place, for each threshold, and testing is at 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, with a good contact tracing, no country should ever reach 10%.
The issue is that MOST countries do not have the capability to test 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, and those that have, will most likely lose the control of the bichito because contact tracing becomes irrelevant.
What happens at 15% positivity? Can things be reversed?
Yes, they can, but a FULL LOCK-DOWN should be in place, all travel should be stopped, schools closed, all services, pubs, restaurants, gyms, shops, etc. closed, except essential, medical, security, fire department and food production and food related shops.
At 15% positivity, the real number of infected is almost 4 times higher, the testing capability should reach 4,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day (almost no country can do this at this moment), contact tracing should be maximized , and even if it is almost irrelevant, it will make a difference, long term, under a full lock-down.
There are no half measures now. 15% positivity is full lock-down time. Any other measures will only SLIGHTLY postpone reaching the 20% positivity. Maybe get couple day more, because another thing that happens at 15% positivity, and full lock-downs aren't in place, is that the spread becomes exponential.
The medical system will start to collapse in many places, especially large urban areas.
To understand why testing should keep pace with the spread, just look at Argentina. They were under a soft lock-down for 4 months or so...but their testing capacity barely increased.
They reached 50% and over positivity, because their testing was virtually the same. Contact tracing...forget about it. It's already lost at 15%, it is completely lost at 50%.
They decided to drop the lock-downs, because "it didn't worked". Ofc it didn't, because it WAS NOT a lock-down.
Chile did a proper lock-down...and it worked, while being basically like Argentina in terms of testing and contact tracing.
At 20% positivity, regardless of the number of tests / day, the control over the spread of the bichito is totally lost. The only way out is a full lock-down. A full lock-down should be in place at 15% anyway, but even if the government CHOSE to avoid it this time, it should be in place at 20%, regardless.
So, when a country will totally lose the control over the epidemic?
At 20%.
At 20%, it matter not how many people you test. It can be 10, or 100,000,000. It doesn't change anything.
The medical system will collapse at 20%.
TECHNICALLY peaking, a medical system collapses when all hospitals are full. If we wanna talk about technicalities, no medical system will EVER collapse. There will always be some free beds in some god forsaken town.
But if we want to talk reality, the moment a country have their hospitals ICU full, in major urban areas, their medical system IS COLLAPSED.
The medical staff can only take care, PROPERLY, of a set number of patients. When that number is passed, the hospital in the matter IS COLLAPSED.
We are not robots. We can only do so much. And under constant pressure, the medical staff will crack, some will get sick, some hospitals will have outbreaks and close, etc. etc.
When to worry?
When positivity reaches 10%?
When to know that things are about to pop?
When positivity reaches 15%.
When to prepare for the worst?
No later then when positivity reaches 20%.
Each one of you can look at their own country. The testing, the positivity, the measures, and draw your own conclusion.
What I see now in Europe is that by the end of this week, about half of Europe will lose control of the pandemic, and the other half will lose it by the end of this month.
Things are bad now...wait until next week.
And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.
They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.
