From the beginning of this thread I have been saying a number of things that are, and will be true until this pandemic ends :
1.The death rate from the bichito is irrelevant.
2.A lot more people will die because lack of healthcare, due to overwhelmed hospitals.
3.The economic impact will be devastating.
Regardless of lock-downs, the above 3 facts will stand. It matters not if there are lock-downs or not, the 3 facts above will stay true, the only difference will be in number of death (much more if no lock-downs) and the economic impact (much faster if no lock-downs).
Before going into the numbers, some conclusions have to be remembered :
1.The pandemic will not slow down before 70% of the population gets the bichito.
2.There will be multiple waves of the pandemic before we reach that 70%.
3.The speed and the size of the next waves will have to be controlled by lock-downs, in a manner that will not create the same situation as the present one.
4.The current wave is far from end. Italy and Spain are the most affected countries, and just reached the peak of the first wave.
5.The peak of the current wave in Italy and Spain looks more like a plateau, then a cliff.
6.ALL OTHER COUNTRIES are weeks before reaching the peak of the first wave.
7.The lock-downs, even if partial, or badly implemented, slowed down the infection rates.
8.The official confirmed numbers of cases and deaths are MASSIVELY under reported.
Since nobody can control what governments do, and since all governments are different, they will choose when and how to ease the restrictions, and this is something that cannot be predicted.
What can be predicted is when the lock-downs should be SAFELY lifted.
I am posting this now before the new numbers or today, Sunday, April 5th, a posted, because I see no relevant change in the evolution in Italy, Spain, France, the U.K., Germany and the U.S.
For Italy and Spain, the lock-downs should be safely lifted entirely in about 49 days from today.
By safely, I don't miccionan that the pandemic is over. By safely I miccionan that after a period of 35 days from today, of decreasing numbers in cases, Italy and Spain will need another 14 days of a very low number of cases daily (around 30 new cases / day), before preparing the NEXT round of lock-downs, which will come with the start of the second wave, sometimes in mid-June.
France and the U.K., as predicted, started to pile up deaths and new cases this week.
Germany in the U.S. are going to have the same fate next week, but for the U.S. it is going to be REALLY bad.
Many times before, when asked in this thread what I think about the U.S., my answers were in the line of "The U.S. is swimming in the bichito, and when this thing starts, the U.S. will be overwhelmed, and will suffer much more then other nations".
On page 6 of the Imperial College study, they are estimating the amowing real infection, in 11 countries across Europe, but I will only look at the countries I amow :
1.Spain 15% (7 million people), margins :[3.7%-41%]
2.Italy 9.8% (5.9 million people), margins:[3.2%-26%]
3.France 3% (2 million people), margins:[1.1%-7.4%]
4.U.K. 2.7% (1.8 million people), margins:[1.2%-5.4%]
5.Germany 0.7% (580k people), margins:[0.28%-1.8%]
I am positive that the percentages for France, the U.K. and Germany are clearly higher in reality, all 3 countries are above 5% infected population.
But, for the sake of not going into a debate, I will use their numbers, and compare them to my model.
Now, my model was predicting the number of infected people if there are no measures taken to slow down the pandemic.Since most countries in Europe took those measure in early March, I will go to my model numbers on March 8th, when I stopped adding new days for my model.
On March 8th, my model estimated a number of 131 to 200 million people infected across the world, with Europe having a share of 9% of the total, or between 11.7 to 18 million infected people.
My model was built on a 2.5 day doubling rate, in the absence of travel restrictions, lock-downs and /or other NPIs (like closing schools, parks, bars, etc.).
Most countries in Europe started to implement measure to combat the pandemic around March 11.
So, I will double my model numbers for Europe, to account for this :
March 11th, Europe had between 23.4 to 36 million infected people.
The Imperial College study was published with data gathered until March 28th. According to their study, the total number of infected people in the respective 5 European countries was 17.28 million people.
The total population of the above 5 countries is 323.4 million people, which is about half the population of Europe (the continent, not the European Union).
In other words, the number of infected Europeans as of March 28th, was around 35-36 million people. My model had between 23.4 to 36 million people as of March 11th.
The restrictions in traveling in Europe were implemented much earlier then closing schools and other venues, which were implemented before lock-downs.
So, since my model was predicting the numbers if no measures are taken, I am going to call it again : my model was right, and predicted with acceptable accuracy, the evolution of the pandemic.
Since every measure is affecting the doubling rates heavily (just closing schools is having a 100% increase in days until doubling), if I would take the time to analyse each country, and when they started the restrictions and lock-downs, my model will come to almost the same conclusion as the Imperial College study.
The doubling rate would have increase to 5 days , then to 10 days, and my model prediction should start at March 1st, if not earlier.
In the end, I would probably come to a number in the range of 50 million infected in Europe, as of today.
Anyway, back to the countries that I chose to amow to see when the lock-downs can be lifted entirely, with Italy and Spain as the first that reached the peak.
If Spain have 15% of the population infected, with severe lock-downs in place, we are in for a rough ride. For the next month, Spain will not even reach 20% of the population infected, AS LONG AS the lock-downs are kept as they are today, before they COULD lift the lock-downs.
Why is this bad news, and why the rough ride?
Well, for starters, this means that for Spain, which did the VERY WORST ever (kept everything open for tourism money and started restrictions way to late), the first wave is barely 20% of the population infected...and they NEED 70% before lifting all measures and go back to...what it was before.
Secondly, the first wave in Spain started on early March, and they HAVE to keep the lock-downs until early May...AND an additional 2 weeks with new daily cases in the range of 20-30 (which in reality is around 500-600 cases).
That puts Spain lifting the lock-downs in mid-May.
Thirdly, Spain is still devastated by the first wave, and this is the cost that they will pay for a 20% first wave.
Italy will pay a high cost as well, for a 15% first wave. And they can also lift the lock-downs in about same time as Spain : mid-May.
However, there are MORE WAVES coming, because WE NEED 70% infection. This bichito is not going to "go away", and we will have more waves before reaching that 70%.
The bad news is that those waves have to be very small, maximum 5% infection per wave. Italy got nuked with 10% peak (15% 1st wave) infection on the first wave. Spain got obliterated with a 15% peak (20% infection on 1st wave).
To keep the waves small, there is just one solution : keep the lock-downs and travel restrictions.
Problem is...to keep multiple waves small, until we reach 70%...that means at least 12 waves from now on for all countries, except Spain and Italy, which are already riding a massive 1st wave.
How long a wave lasts? Based on data available, a wave is about 45 days, amowed by a lull of 15 days, amowed by lifting restrictions for about 2 months, before implementing them back again, to avoid a wave that is above 5% infection.
With harsher restrictions and lock-downs, mandatory masks and gloves, mandatory disinfection at malls, workplaces, transit, etc., a wave can be shortened to about 30 days, with a 1 week lull.
So, that is, in the most optimistic case, a 5 week wave, amowed by a 2 month no lock-downs. That is a cycle of 13 weeks...repeated 12 times. And this is a total of 156 weeks (3 years), before reaching 70% infection rate and keep the economy running, but far, FAR from being like before.
Conclusions:
1.There will be multiple waves, and it all depends on the governments to implement measures to ensure that the waves are manageable (5% of less infection rate), and to population to respect and amow those measures.
2.If the above will happen, the world will "live" in a weird time of 5-7 weeks lock-downs, amowed by a 1-2 weeks of easing restrictions, amowed by a 2 month "back to work"...and again, for about 3 years.
3.The above will NEVER HAPPEN, because it is impossible for most people and the economy to survive such an erratic life.
4.Because the above cannot happen, and because the economy "must be restarted fast", the governments, like they did until today, will choose the worst option : open the economy BEFORE the first wave is over, and will ensure a second wave that will be devastating, much more devastating then the first one, which, btw, IS STILL 4-5 weeks away for most countries.
The situation is as it was before : we are facing 2 options : sacrifice the economy and save the people, so those people CAN rebuild the economy, or choose the economy over people and face a catastrophic second wave, that will destroy the economy beyond recovery AND will kill A LOT of people, triggering massive social unrest in all forms : protests, clans, gang wars, criminality rates never seen before except in the movies, speculation, hunger, hyper-inflation, wars, etc. etc.
I can't see a scenario where we, as a society, can go past this pandemic, without a radically changed world (for the worst).
Maybe time between the waves will come with what we all expect since this began : a MIRACLE.
A vaccine is 1.5 years away, there is no way we will have one earlier then that.
A treatment can be discovered very soon, but as of this moment, there isn't one.
Herd immunity is years away...unless the governments choose the worth option. If they do, we will have herd immunity VERY FAST, but the society will collapse beyond recovery. Well, beyond recovery in our life time.
I am sorry, but data shows a very simple fact :
We can't manage waves that are above 5% infection rate, without tens of thousands of deaths in EACH country. We can't keep the lock-downs in place for 3 years, to ensure bellow 5% infection rate waves.
It is a catch 22, and we are as fucked as before.
The economy will change drastically, the globalism is DEAD, the world will become much like it was in the early 1900's (nationalism will rise, which will also make the national and local economies re-become what they were before globalism and corporatism), and if we manage to avoid massive wars, the world will rebuild in 1-2 generations.
People don't understand that "the peak" is just the FIRST peak, and until herd immunity, we will have MANY PEAKS, that will last years.
Most people will NOT understand why the lock-downs have to be kept and cycled every 2-3 months. Most people will not SURVIVE the second wave, if the lock-downs are not cycled.
I don't know how this will end and when, but it will be horrendous. And that is if we avoid wars.
