⚡⚡(HILO OFICIAL) : CRISIS DEL cobi19 ☣SARS-CoV2☣

[Malvender]

Pero no están curados que es lo que aparece en las estadísticas y son un foco de contagio .

De acuerdo, pero si yo me veo en esas, y ya no necesito respirador, prefiero estar en casa que tirado en el suelo de un pasillo con otros 400 enfermos

 

[Hugrakkir]

It is easy to overdo el bichito-19 quarantines

It is easy to overdo el bichito-19 quarantines Posted on March 11, 2020 by Gail Tverberg


We have learned historically that if we can isolate sick people, we can often keep a communicable disease from spreading. Unfortunately, the situation with the new cobi19 causing el bichito-19 is different: We can’t reliability determine which people are spreading the disease. Furthermore, the disease seems to transmit in many different ways simultaneously.
Politicians and health organizations like to show that they are “doing something.” Because of the strange nature of el bichito-19, however, doing something is mostly a time-shifting exercise: With quarantines and other containment efforts, there will be fewer cases now, but this will be mostly or entirely offset by more cases later. Whether time-shifting reduces deaths and eases hospital care depends upon whether medical advances are sufficiently great during the time gained to improve outcomes.
We tend to lose sight of the fact that an economy cannot simply be shut down for a period and then start up again at close to its former level of production. China seems to have seriously overdone its use of quarantines. It seems likely that its economy can never fully recover. The permanent loss of a significant part of China’s productive output seems likely to send the world economy into a tailspin, regardless of what other economies do.
Before undertaking containment efforts of any kind, decision-makers need to look carefully at several issues:

• Laying off workers, even for a short time, severely adversely affects the economy.
• The expected length of delay in cases made possible by quarantines is likely to be very short, sometimes lasting not much longer than the quarantines themselves.
• We seem to need a very rapid improvement in our ability to treat el bichito-19 cases for containment efforts to make sense, if we cannot stamp out the disease completely.

(a) Even if medicines are identified, can they be ramped up adequately in the short time available?
(b) China’s exports have dropped significantly. Required medical goods that we normally import from China may not be available. The missing items could be as simple as rubbing alcohol, masks and other protective wear. The missing items could also be antibiotics, antidepressants, and blood pressure medications that are needed for both el bichito-19 patients and other patients.
(c) Based on my calculations, the number of hospital beds and ICU beds needed will likely exceed those available (without kicking out other patients) by at least a factor of 10, if the size of the epidemic grows. There will also be a need for more medical staff. Medical staff may be fewer, rather than more, because many of them will be out sick with the bichito. Because of these issues, the amount of hospital-based care that can actually be provided to el bichito-19 patients is likely to be fairly limited.
(d) One reason for time-shifting of illnesses has been to try to better match illnesses with medical care available. The main benefit I can see is the fact that many health care workers will have contracted the illness in the first wave of the disease, so will be more available to give care in later waves of the disease. Apart from this difference, the system will be badly overwhelmed, regardless of when el bichito-19 cases occur.


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[Archimanguina]

En el nuevo decreto, las actividades agrarias estan permitidas no?.

Lo digo ya que tengo que labrar la huerta familiar con la motoazada ya próximamente y no quiero que me multen. El calendario agricola manda y no entiende de cuarentenas. Alguien me lo puede aclarar. Gracias.

 

[Hugrakkir]

[6] A major issue, both with el bichito-19 illnesses and with quarantines arising out of antiestéticar of illness, is wage loss.


If schools and day care centers are closed because of el bichito-19 antiestéticars, many of the parents will have to take off time from work to care for the children. These parent will likely lose wages.


Wage loss will also be a problem if quarantines are required for people returning from an area that might be affected. For example, immigrant workers in China wanting to return to work in major cities after the New Year’s holiday have been quarantined for 14 days after they return.


Clearly, expenses (such as rent, food and auto payments) will continue, both for the mother of the child who is at home because a child’s school is closed and for the migrant worker who wants to return to a job in the city. Their lack of wages will miccionan that these people will make fewer discretionary purchases, such as visiting restaurants and making trips to visit relatives. In fact, migrant workers, when faced with a 14 day quarantine, may decide to stay in the countryside. If they don’t earn very much in the best of times, and they are required to go 14 days without pay after they return, there may not be much incentive to return to work.


If I am correct that the illness el bichito-19 will strike in several waves, these same people participating in quarantines will have another “opportunity” for wage loss when they actually contract the disease, during one of these later rounds. Unless there is a real reduction in the number of people who ultimately get el bichito-19 because of quarantines, a person would expect that the total wage loss would be greater with quarantines than without, because the wage loss occurs twice instead of once.


Furthermore, businesses will suffer financially when their workers are out. With fewer working employees, businesses will likely be able to produce fewer finished goods and services than in the past. At the same time, their fixed expenses (such as mortgage payments, insurance payments, and the cost of heating buildings) will continue. This mismatch is likely to lead to lower profits at two different times: (a) when workers are out because of quarantines and (b) when they are out because they are ill.


[7] We likely can expect a great deal more el bichito-19 around the world, including in China and in Italy, in the next two years.


The number of reported el bichito-19 cases to date is tiny, compared to the number that is expected based on estimates by epidemiologists. China reports about 81,000 el bichito-19 cases to date, while its population is roughly 1.4 billion. If epidemiologists tell us to expect 20% to 60% of a country’s population to be affected by the end of the first year of the epidemic, this would correspond to a range of 280 million to 840 million cases. The difference between reported cases and expected cases is huge. Reported cases to date are less than 0.01% of the population.


We know that China’s reported number of cases is an optimistically low number, but we don’t know how low. Many, many more cases are expected in the year ahead if workers go back to work. In fact, there have been recent reports of a el bichito-19 outbreak in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, near Hong Kong. Such an outbreak would adversely affect China’s manufactured exports.


Italy has a similar situation. It is currently reported to have somewhat more than 10,000 cases. Its total population is about 60 million. Thus, its number of cases amounts to about 0.02% of the population. If Epidemiologist Lipsitch is correct regarding the percentage of the population that is ultimately likely to be affected, the number of cases in Italy, too, can be expected to be much higher within the next year. Twenty percent of a population of 60 million would amount to 12 million cases; 60% of the population would amount to 36 million cases.

 

[-Galaiko]

Había otra lo que pasa que era a "anteriori":

*Cerrar la frontera a pasajeros provenientes de China en cuanto se vio que el brote ya afectaba a media china
*Controles de temp. en aeropuertos para todos los pasajeros, no es 100% infalible pero muchos se detectan.
*Auditoría de stocks públicos de lo necesario en caso de brote en nuestro país.
*Cerrar la frontera a pasajeros provenientes de Italia en cuanto se vio que había un brote allí o a cualquier país con brote de cobi19.
*Coordinación de ministerios con asociaciones empresariales y sindicatos para preparar planes laborales y económicos por probable cuarentena de entre 15 y 30 días.
*Información a la población para que fueran almacenando víveres con tiempo para 15 o 30 días en caso de implantar cuarentena obligatoria.
*Uso generalizado de tapabocas (no tendrían porque ser mascaras) en espacios públicos para minimizar posibles contagios.
*Coordinación europeda para minimizar la entrada a Europa de vectores de contagios extra-comunitarios o desde Italia.
*Coordinación europeda para la compra o fabricación de suministros médicos y hospitalarios.

Posible resultado hoy: La economía estaría también golpeada por la caída del turismo (teniendo en cuenta que es temporada baja) pero el brote podría haberse controlado mucho mejor y posiblemente no hubiese habido necesidad de una cuarentena tan restrictiva social y laboral.
Y actuando Europa coordinada para ayudar a parar los contagios en los países que surgieran brotes, seria mejor a que cada uno vaya a su bola y caer todos casi al mismo tiempo que es lo que ha pasado.
Es solo mi opinion y no digo que fuera la solución ideal, pero no hubiera estado mal un poco de control de daños, no ir a pelo y al dia como estamos yendo.

 

[Hugrakkir]

[8] When decisions about quarantines are made, the expected wage loss when workers lose their jobs needs to be considered as well.


Let’s calculate the amount of wage loss from actually having el bichito-19. If workers generally work for 50 weeks a year and are out sick for an average of 2 weeks because of el bichito-19, the average worker would lose 4% (=2/50) of his annual wages. If workers are out sick for an average of three weeks, this would increase the loss to 6% (3/50) of the worker’s annual wages.


Of course, not all workers will be affected by the new cobi19. If we are expecting 20% to 60% of the workers to be out sick during the first year that the epidemic cycles through the economy, the expected overall wage loss for the population as a whole would amount to 0.8% (=20% times 4%) to 3.6% (=60% times 6%) of total wages.


Let’s now calculate the wage loss from a quarantine. A week of wage loss during a quarantine of the entire population, while nearly everyone is well, would lead to a wage loss equal to 2% of the population’s total wages. Two weeks of wage loss during quarantine would lead to wage loss equal to 4% of the population’s total wages.


Is it possible to reduce overall wage loss and deaths by using quarantines? This approach works for diseases which can actually be stopped through isolating sick members, but I don’t think it works well at all for el bichito-19. Mostly, it provides a time-shifting antiestéticature. There are fewer illnesses earlier, but to a very significant extent, this is offset by more illnesses later. This time-shifting antiestéticature might be helpful if there really is a substantial improvement in prevention or treatment that is quickly available. For example, if a vaccine that really works can be found quickly, such a vaccine might help prevent some of the illnesses and deaths in 2021 and amowing years.


If there really isn’t an improvement in preventing the disease, then we get back to the situation where the bichito needs to be stopped based on community immunity. According to Lipsitch, to stop the bichito based on community immunity, at least 50% of the population would need to become immune. This implies that somewhat more than 50% of the population would need to catch the new cobi19, because some people would catch the new bichito and die, either of el bichito-19 or of another disease.


Let’s suppose that 55% would need to catch el bichito-19 to allow the population immunity to rise to 50%. The bichito would likely need to keep cycling around until at least this percentage of the population has caught the disease. This is not much of a decrease from the upper limit of 60% during the first year. This suggests that moving illnesses to a later year may not help much at all with respect to the expected number of illnesses and deaths. Hospitals will be practically equally overwhelmed regardless, unless we can somehow change the typical seasonality of viruses and move some of the winter illnesses to summertime.


If there is no improvement in el bichito-19 prevention/treatment during the time-shift of cases created by the quarantine, any quarantine wage loss can be thought of as being simply in addition to wage loss from having the bichito itself. Thus, a country that opts for a two week quarantine of all workers (costing 4% of workers’ wages) may be more than doubling the direct wage loss from el bichito-19 (equivalent to 0.8% to 3.6% of workers’ wages).

 

[velocipedo]

Hasta ahora no conocía a nadie con problemas derivados del coronabicho, pero acaba de cambiar la cosa radicalmente. Mi hermano y mi cuñada son médicos, los dos en la sanidad pública. Ella está en la consulta de neumo, donde se hinchan de ver a gente con el bicho con problemas respiratorios. Uno de sus compañeros me acaban de comunicar que ha fallecido esta noche. No han logrado que responda a ningún tratamiento.
Todos han quedado con la moral por los suelos. He hablado con ellos y están llorando como magdalenas.
Son demasiados días de estrés y agotamiento. Su propio sistema inmunitario está deprimido solo por el cansancio y las agonías que ven una tras otra desde hace mucho.
Como nos vayamos quedando sin sanitarios, estaremos más condenados aún de lo que ya estamos.
DEP

 

[Hugrakkir]

[9] China’s shutdown in response to el bichito-19 doesn’t seem to make much rational sense.


It is hard to understand exactly how much China has shut down, but the shutdown has gone on for about six weeks. At this point, it is not clear that China can ever come back to the level it was at previously. Clearly, the combination of wage loss for individuals and profit loss for companies is very high. The long shutdown is likely to lead to widespread debt defaults. With less wages, there is likely to be less demand for goods such as cars and cell phones during 2020.


China was having difficulty before the new cobi19 was discovered to be a problem. Its energy production has slowed greatly, starting about 2012-2013, making it necessary for China to start shifting from a goods-producing nation to a country that is more of a services-producer (Figure 1).



Figure 1. China energy production by fuel, based on 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data. “Other Ren” stands for “Renewables other than hydroelectric.” This category includes wind, solar, and other miscellaneous types, such as sawdust burned for electricity.




For example, China’s workers now put together iPhones using parts made in other countries, rather than making iPhones from start to finish. This part of the production chain requires relatively little fuel, so it is in some sense more like a service than the manufacturing of parts for the phone.


The rest of the world has been depending upon China to be a major supplier within its supply lines. Perhaps many of these supply lines will be broken indefinitely. Instead of China helping pull the world economy along faster, we may be faced with a situation in which China’s reduced output leads to worldwide economic contraction rather than economic growth.


Without medicines from China, our ability to fight el bichito-19 may get worse over time, rather than better. In such a case, it would be better to get the illness now, rather than later.

 

[El Tuerto]

Cada tanto toca ponerlo, una cosa es que la crisis sea a escala mundial, otra bien diferente la criminal gestión del gobierno de España:

Hago un resumen de nuestra afamada y eficaz fase de contención.
Sirva también para elaboración y desarrollo de las correspondientes querellas criminales:

1- Se ha instado a no caer en la Chinofobia, desviando así totalmente el foco del problema de la opinión pública.

2- Se han omitido la preparación de protocolos especiales de actuación para el personal sanitario, con el resultado de cientos/miles de sanitarios en cuarentena por falta de protocolo previo.

3- No se ha realizado aprovisionamiento de material médico ni se han habilitado áreas supletorias para reforzar hospitales.

4- Se han mantenido abiertos aeropuertos, puertos y carreteras, sin tomar ningún tipo de control para la entrada de personas provenientes de focos claros de contagio.

5- Se ha Informado de que es una gripe más y de que muere más gente de gripe estacional.

6- Se ha animado a la gente a realizar vida normal, incluso a viajeros provenientes de focos de contagio.

7- Se han promovido activamente eventos multitudinarios deportivos, culturales y de todo tipo.

8- Se ha animado a la gente a salir a manifestarse el 8 de MARZO, ya con la esa época en el 2020 de la que yo le hablo totalmente descontrolada.

9- Se ha desaconsejado el uso de cualquier tipo de protección personal para evitar el contagio (mascaras, guantes..). Bastaba con lavarse las manos.

10- El gobierno ha omitido en todo momento asumir las responsabilidades propias y ha delegado en responsables autonómicos y municipales la toma de medidas, con el consabido desastre.

 

[Misterio]

Oyendo a Montera ayer y como he leído en twitter, uno se pregunta como esta sujeta llego a ser cajera.

 

[-Galaiko]

En el nuevo decreto, las actividades agrarias estan permitidas no?.

Lo digo ya que tengo que labrar la huerta familiar con la motoazada ya próximamente y no quiero que me multen. El calendario agricola manda y no entiende de cuarentenas. Alguien me lo puede aclarar. Gracias.

Si no estás registrado como actividad agrícola creo que no. Me parece que los huertos particulares no entran en las excepciones.
Llama a la poli que ya te lo dirán.

 

[jarella1@yahoo.es]

Esto es una opinión.
Esto es una ficción y cualquier parecido con la realidad es pura coincidencia.


Voy a contar una mentira subida de peso, pero subida de peso, recordar no entrar en alarma social porque es mentira, tan mentira como las anteriores.

Llega de nuevo la alegría de la huerta de la Galia, trayendo una nueva ficción, oye, ni el forero de “forocarros” “Yuri Gagarin” en su “El fin del Mundo”.

“Reunión de pastores perdición del ganado”, en algunos países “europeos” han habido muchas reuniones “sociales” en las que se ha pedido al banco central del país o por lo menos a alguien a fin al gobierno dentro del banco para que se preparen los documentos necesarios para la adquisición “voluntariamente obligada” de “bonos patrióticos”.

Se baraja que estos deberán de ser adquiridos por todos aquellos que tengan más de 100.000 euros en su conjunto, no por cuenta, sino por su conjunto en diferentes bancos y en caso de no llegarse a la cifra necesaria para “cubrir gastos”, se irá bajando el “tope” primero a 50.000 euros pudiendo llegar hasta los 25.000 euros, por debajo de esa cifra los “expertos” no recomiendan tocar nada pues habría un estallido social.

Y si, parece que un simple ha diseñado esto, pues no van a distinguir entre personas físicas y empresas, la de ruinas que van a provocar como les toque el “dinero de trabajo” a muchas empresas, vamos a vivir tiempos interesantes como algún gobierno de estos decida llevar la cosa a la realidad hasta las últimas consecuencias, lo que vivió Rusia en los 1990 va a ser que los rusos de los 1990 eran uno millonarios al lado de los ciudadanos europeos que sufran esa “quita”.

Lo curiosos es que el “SWIFT” esta “quemando” bits como si no hubiese mañana desde la tarde del viernes y está guardando todas esas transferencia para “confirmarlas” para el 1 de abril, vamos, que “las perras” salen del banco, te borran la cantidad, pero te advierten que tardaran como mínimo hasta el día 1 de abril en llegar a su destino, mira que si le entra un bichito al ordenador de acumulación, que no Jarella, que la serie 370 de IBM no pillan bicho, salvo le pegues fuego con gasolina al “ordenador” los datos están bien seguros.

Ojo, no todas las transferencias tienen demora, pues hay ciertas trasferencias “pequeñas” y de ciertos países que no sufren esa acumulación, supongo que están haciendo un “triaje” para evitar que los gobiernos europeos “pierdan” capital, cosas del banco central europeo dicen las malas lenguas.

Ningún país va a tener “corralito”, pero posiblemente tendremos límite de adquisición de papelitos fíat, pero ojo, no se llamara “corralito” sino “limite monetario” o algo asi y será por nuestro bien, pues el dinero “solido” trasmite el bichito, además una buena cantidad de “pobres” van a ser adquisidores “voluntarios” de “bonos patriotas a 100 años” del estado.


Y si, lo anterior es una mentira subida de peso y forma parte del grupo de ficciones que estoy contando últimamente, por lo que no debéis creerme y entrar en alarma social.

¿Fuente?, ¡cachopo!, que es una ficción.

Pues eso, un saludo a todos


Si por un casual está sucediendo, ha sucedido o sucede algo parecido a lo anterior, es pura casualidad, pues el relato anterior es fruto de la mente de la autora que tiene mucha imaginación. 8322

 

[Hugrakkir]

[10] We need to be examining proposed solutions closely, in the light of the particulars of the new cobi19, rather than simply assuming that fighting el bichito-19 to the death is appropriate.


The instructions we hear today seem to suggest using disinfectants everywhere, to try to prevent el bichito-19. This is yet another way to try to push off infections caused by the cobi19 into the future. We know, however, that there are good microbes as well as bad ones. The ecosystem requires a balance of microbes. Dumping disinfectants everywhere has its downside, as well as the possibility of an upside of killing the current round of coronaviruses. In fact, to the extent that the bichito is airborne, the disinfectants may not really be very helpful in wiping out el bichito-19.


It is very easy to believe that if some diseases can be subdued by quarantines, the same approach will work everywhere. This really isn’t true. We need to be examining the current situation closely, based on whatever information is available, before decisions are made regarding how to deal with the el bichito-19 outbreak. Perhaps any quarantines used need to be small and targeted.


We also need to be looking for new approaches for fighting el bichito-19. One approach that is not being used significantly to date is trying to strengthen people’s own immune systems. Such an approach might help people’s own immune system to fight off the disease, thereby lowering death rates. Nutrition experts recommend supplementing diets with Vitamins A, C, E, antioxidants and selenium. Other experts say zinc, Vitamin D and elderberry may be helpful. Staying away from cold temperatures also seems to be important. Drinking plenty of water after coming down with the disease may be beneficial as well. If we can help people’s own bodies fight the disease, the burden on the medical system will be lower.

 

[lowfour]

Hay días en que me da por pensar que la tasa de mortalidad real del bichito podría ser solamente unas 5-7 veces superior a la de la gripe, en el intervalo 0.5%-0.7% o incluso menor. Hay paises como Alemania y Australia con tasas de mortalidad extremadamente bajas y por muchos tests que hayan hecho seguro que les faltan muchos asintomáticos por detectar. El problema es que, como ya vimos en China, se contagia muchísimo más y es algo a lo que creo que no se le está dando especial importancia en Europa. Si hay algún pais que se decida a hacer tests a toda su población por fin sabremos la verdad. Podríamos tener tranquilamente entre 1 y 5 millones de portadores del bichito en España en estos momentos. Eso explicaría que haya, por ejemplo, tantos polítcos hayan dado positivo pero casi todos sean casos muy leves o asintomáticos. También explicaría como el bichito es capaz de infectar a un gran número de personas en una región antes de hacer saltar las alarmas.

No, eso está claro. Yo ya he leido estimaciones (y las mías propias) de que está por 0.6% de mortalidad. Estamos viendo estadísticas de solo los casos clínicos muy graves.

El Ro de 2.2 o 2.4 que dieron no me lo creo. Yo creo que como ponía el inversor ese apocalíptico estamos más en el 4 o 6. Es brutal lo que infecta este bichito. Toda precaución es poca... el riesgo de ponerse muy malito es bajo yo creo pero como te toque date por amortizado.

 

[365]

Pedro Sánchez podría pedir a su amigo Soros que envíe a China al Open Arms y el resto de sus barcos negreros y los traigan llenos de material sanitario. Van a tardar meses, pero al paso que vamos puede ser el único material que consiga el gobierno.

El GOBIERNO NO TIENE NI UN DURO. España está quebrada desde el 2006/2007 y desde entonces se ha ido viviendo de prestao, a nivel pais y a nivel individual, en gran parte.

En dos nominas, privadas o publicas, todos al carrer. A la tercera irá la vencida y se empezará a pasar hambre en España.