*Tema mítico* : ¿Habéis visto el Ibex 35? Junio 2014. Mes bolivariano que expropia plusvalía. Que llegan los gente de izquierdas!
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bertok
Será en Octubre
patapaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalo
[YOUTUBE]dLaBxTeRHV4[/YOUTUBE]
---------- Post added 31-may-2014 at 16:11 ----------
aaaayyyyy
[YOUTUBE]dLaBxTeRHV4[/YOUTUBE]
---------- Post added 31-may-2014 at 16:11 ----------
aaaayyyyy
Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
El del medio es Pinto?????Dedicados a 2 ilustres del HVEI.
Bertok, Bertok, Bertok....
http://yts.re/movie/13_Sins_2014
Enviado desde el SeaMonkey
bertok
Será en Octubre
Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
Nein, bajando para verla en el kindleLa tengo bajando de TPB en calidad hd :::
¿la has visto?
Enviado desde el SeaMonkey
Tono
Madmaxista
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Hombre, no digo que como el mes pasado haya que esperar a la tarde del día 1 para abrir el hilo... pero así como que pierde su gracia.
Mis 5 estrellas y el sombrero de Iberdrola para el hilo.
Si IBE sube de los 5,5 este mes, cosa nada descartable, me saco una afoto vestido de gaiteiro con él puesto.
Sobre el tema de RSI del IBEX.
Hasta donde yo entiendo es un indicador de fuerza para un momento dado. Comparar RSIs de momentos puntuales de hace años como que no tiene mucho sentido.
....teniendo en cuenta que el AT lo hago con compás y cartabón, como las elipses del otro que sacó matrícula
inocho:, seguro que digo una burrada. :cook:
Mis 5 estrellas y el sombrero de Iberdrola para el hilo.
Si IBE sube de los 5,5 este mes, cosa nada descartable, me saco una afoto vestido de gaiteiro con él puesto.
Sobre el tema de RSI del IBEX.
Hasta donde yo entiendo es un indicador de fuerza para un momento dado. Comparar RSIs de momentos puntuales de hace años como que no tiene mucho sentido.
....teniendo en cuenta que el AT lo hago con compás y cartabón, como las elipses del otro que sacó matrícula
inocho:, seguro que digo una burrada. :cook:
Última edición:
bertok
Será en Octubre
Is Coal on a Collision Course to Bankruptcy?
Is Coal on a Collision Course to Bankruptcy?
Barron's recently had an interesting piece about coal companies being on a long-term collision course with bankruptcy. The article pointed to research by an analyst that suggested while there is no near-term risk of bankruptcy, Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI ) , Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU ) , and Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE: ANR ) were all on a long-term path that's heading in that direction.
The debt market is already worried
One of the issues that the article pointed out is the fact that the debt market is already worried about bankruptcy at Arch Coal and Alpha Natural Resources. The unsecured debt of both companies is currently trading at distressed levels of $0.70 to $0.80 on the dollar, with yields in the midteens.
On a more positive note both Alpha Natural Resources and Arch Coal currently have plenty of cash. Both boast a billion dollars in cash equivalents, which mutes any near-term risk. But that's only enough cash to last these companies about three years at the current burn rate. It's at that point that both could be facing a liquidity crisis that could lead to a possible bankruptcy.
Meanwhile, Peabody Energy is in a little better shape, though its debt load is still high. That still might have an impact on shareholders as one solution that could be on the table is that Peabody could sell shares to pare down its debt load. Unlike Arch Coal or Alpha Natural Resources, Peabody Energy could actually raise equity capital from the market.
Weathering the storm that just won't end
The biggest issue for Peabody Energy, Arch Coal, and Alpha Natural Resources is that the current storm in the seaborne coal market just won't pass. Coal prices have remained at depressed levels for longer than anyone expected and at this point no one knows when, or even if, prices will rebound. That being said, if coal prices do rebound then all of this bankruptcy discussion is likely a moot point.
There is reason to be hopeful that a rebound will happen. As the amowing slide from a Peabody Energy investor presentation notes, the seaborne thermal coal market is projected to grow through the end of the decade.
Source: Peabody Energy Investor Presentation (Link opens a PDF)
As that slide points out there is 250 GW of new coal-fired power generation coming online over the next few years. Those power plants will require a lot of coal, which will increasingly be supplied by the export market.
Meanwhile, metallurgical coal demand is also expected to grow in emerging markets which should not only help Peabody Energy, but provide a boost to Alpha Natural Resources as it's a large metallurgical coal exporter. According to Peabody Energy global metallurgical coal demand is expected to rise by 20-40 million tonnes per year, with greater imports needed to meet that demand.
Investor takeaway
Coal producers are in a tough stretch right now. If the market for coal doesn't improve both Arch Coal and Alpha Natural Resources could be on a collision course to bankruptcy. That being said, neither is without hope as there are positive fundamentals in the coal market that could yield increased demand for seaborne coal. The only question is if that demand will push prices higher before these companies run out of cash.
Is Coal on a Collision Course to Bankruptcy?
Barron's recently had an interesting piece about coal companies being on a long-term collision course with bankruptcy. The article pointed to research by an analyst that suggested while there is no near-term risk of bankruptcy, Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI ) , Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU ) , and Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE: ANR ) were all on a long-term path that's heading in that direction.
The debt market is already worried
One of the issues that the article pointed out is the fact that the debt market is already worried about bankruptcy at Arch Coal and Alpha Natural Resources. The unsecured debt of both companies is currently trading at distressed levels of $0.70 to $0.80 on the dollar, with yields in the midteens.
On a more positive note both Alpha Natural Resources and Arch Coal currently have plenty of cash. Both boast a billion dollars in cash equivalents, which mutes any near-term risk. But that's only enough cash to last these companies about three years at the current burn rate. It's at that point that both could be facing a liquidity crisis that could lead to a possible bankruptcy.
Meanwhile, Peabody Energy is in a little better shape, though its debt load is still high. That still might have an impact on shareholders as one solution that could be on the table is that Peabody could sell shares to pare down its debt load. Unlike Arch Coal or Alpha Natural Resources, Peabody Energy could actually raise equity capital from the market.
Weathering the storm that just won't end
The biggest issue for Peabody Energy, Arch Coal, and Alpha Natural Resources is that the current storm in the seaborne coal market just won't pass. Coal prices have remained at depressed levels for longer than anyone expected and at this point no one knows when, or even if, prices will rebound. That being said, if coal prices do rebound then all of this bankruptcy discussion is likely a moot point.
There is reason to be hopeful that a rebound will happen. As the amowing slide from a Peabody Energy investor presentation notes, the seaborne thermal coal market is projected to grow through the end of the decade.
Source: Peabody Energy Investor Presentation (Link opens a PDF)
As that slide points out there is 250 GW of new coal-fired power generation coming online over the next few years. Those power plants will require a lot of coal, which will increasingly be supplied by the export market.
Meanwhile, metallurgical coal demand is also expected to grow in emerging markets which should not only help Peabody Energy, but provide a boost to Alpha Natural Resources as it's a large metallurgical coal exporter. According to Peabody Energy global metallurgical coal demand is expected to rise by 20-40 million tonnes per year, with greater imports needed to meet that demand.
Investor takeaway
Coal producers are in a tough stretch right now. If the market for coal doesn't improve both Arch Coal and Alpha Natural Resources could be on a collision course to bankruptcy. That being said, neither is without hope as there are positive fundamentals in the coal market that could yield increased demand for seaborne coal. The only question is if that demand will push prices higher before these companies run out of cash.
Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
Bertok, que estemos mas cerca del x7 que del x0 depende en gran medida que explote de una vez la burbuja del fracking. Y ya hay muchos indicios de esto.
En ANR entre, me vi con un 17% y me convencí que era la buena. Mzmm. Luego vi que se giraba (por tesnico) pero me habia convencido que era la buena y por eso no vendi.MZMM.
Errores de los que (nunca) aprenderé ::
Enviado desde el SeaMonkey
En ANR entre, me vi con un 17% y me convencí que era la buena. Mzmm. Luego vi que se giraba (por tesnico) pero me habia convencido que era la buena y por eso no vendi.MZMM.
Errores de los que (nunca) aprenderé :
:Enviado desde el SeaMonkey
bertok
Será en Octubre
Es puro timing y que Obama salga de la Casa Blanca.Bertok, que estemos mas cerca del x7 que del x0 depende en gran medida que explote de una vez la burbuja del fracking. Y ya hay muchos indicios de esto.
En ANR entre, me vi con un 17% y me convencí que era la buena. Mzmm. Luego vi que se giraba (por tesnico) pero me habia convencido que era la buena y por eso no vendi.MZMM.
Errores de los que (nunca) aprenderé :
Enviado desde el SeaMonkey
Y hay que tener mucho cuidado con lo del fracking. Es una burbuja sólo mantenida con la impresión masiva de papelacos de colores. Incluso los más pesimistas le dan un plazo de 5-10 años para que explote la burbuja del fracking en los US ..... y eso es mucho tiempo.
ANR y ACI tienen pasta para aguantar 3 años salvo que se dediquen a perder capacidad productiva.
La opción más conservadora, y es mucho decir en el coal usano, es BTU por el mercado chino que abastece desde sus minas en Australia.
De todas formas, leer la prensa está bien para enterarse y tal, pero las manos fuertes son las que dejarán huella. Al loraco con los cortos también.
Creo que ANR dará señal en las próximas semanas pero vamos a ver si se produce la confirmación.
Es para meter un dinero que no se necesite porque el x0 es real y posible.
garpie
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Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
Yo le veo mucho menos recorrido a tenor de las noticias que voy leyendo, como la de ese megayacimiento en california que por lo visto está seco, declaraciones de directivos reconociendo la cagada, fin de tapering, al menos en apariencia...
Impresiones.
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Impresiones.
Enviado desde el SeaMonkey
bertok
Será en Octubre
Tienen bastante gas en Eagle Ford, bakken y burnett. Y para aburrir en Marcellus.
El tema es que cada vez es más caro mantener la producción ya qye la tasa de caída de cada pozo es muy alta y tienen que invertir billions haciendo pozos a tuti. Esto sólo lo mantiene la impresora de la FED y el obama.
Están desesperados buscando nuevos clientes a los que colocar tanto gas como tienen.
Aguantará más de lo que puede soportar el carbón usano.
Ajetreo
Madmaxista
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Estoy del "licoptero" de los mossos hasta lacoronilla. Igual les tiro una piedra a ver si acierto como el pastor aquel que tiro uno.
Llevan toda la tarde encima de casa por lo de Can Vies.... y el trrrrrr trrrrrr trrrrrrr no me deja concentrarme en nada
Edito, no era un pastor, era un veterinario
Llevan toda la tarde encima de casa por lo de Can Vies.... y el trrrrrr trrrrrr trrrrrrr no me deja concentrarme en nada
Edito, no era un pastor, era un veterinario
