España no es Alemania: Deustche Bank ve improbable una "Gran Coalición" en España....

[Snowball]

Habló EL MERCADO

From Deutsche Bank

1) A PP and PSOE grand coalition: numerically strong, politically unlikely

A grand coalition would have a large majority (213 seats). However, such a grand coalition would be unprecedented in Spain. We can draw a comparison with Greece rather than Germany. Politically, but not economically, there are several similarities. After the dictatorship Greece was dominated by two parties, the centre-right New Democracy and centre-left PASOK from 1977 to 2012. But since 2011 PASOK suffered the emergency of radical-left SYRIZA as the country battled through the debt crisis. In the June 2012 general election, PASOK won just 12.3% of the votes versus 43.9% in 2009. The government alliance with centre-right New Democracy further damaged the centre-left party. Last September PASOK obtained just 6.3% of the votes.

We think PSOE will keep in mind what happened to the centre-left in Greece. Their incentive in formation a coalition with PP would be to avoid a new election given the recent positive momentum of Podemos. A change of leadership in PSOE could also bring a less confrontational relationship between the two traditional Spanish parties. Still, we think that via such a coalition the PSOE would run a greater risk of losing further votes than returning to elections in the short term. Hence, a PP-PSOE coalition could become antiestéticasible only when the other options are exhausted. Were a grand coalition to be formed, the two parties would struggle to agree on material structural reforms.

From Goldman

In our preview of the elections, we expected a minority (centre-right) PP government that gained support from the centrist Ciudadanos party. While PP gained the expected level of support, Ciudadanos gained less support than we had expected. Taken together the two parties fall significantly short of a majority (163 versus 176 required

No hase farta disir mas...

 

[frangelico]

Es decir , España es paleta y sus políticos buscan la poltrona a base de propaganda : porque en realidad hay casi cero diferencias reales entre las posibilidades de actuación de los políticos y en lo relativo a dinero (lo que importa de verdad al votante), el abanico ya es estrechísimo: ahí están Tsipras o Renzi que, "catados a ciegas" son indistinguibles de Merkel o de Thatcher en su día .

 

[kunk]

Entonces, ya está clara la estrategia a seguir, y hasta el propio Deutsche Bank lo dice: hay que extinguir todo el resto de opciones hasta forzar una gran coalición, y así dentro de 4 años habrá solo un enemigo a batir

 

[tobias]

pues le tocará al PSOE abstenerse durante toda la legislatura, por que la mayoría de grupos van a votar en contra.