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Siento utilizar el idioma pirata pero es interesante el análisis y los comentarios.
Básicamente se basa en la idea de que los precios de los eléctricos también bajarán e impulsarán a la baja los de combustión. La guerra desatada por TESLA Y MUSK
Los comentarios son muy interesantes.
www.telegraph.co.uk
By
Howard Mustoe
7 April 2023 • 12:30pm
Car Manufacturing
Elon Musk began 2023 by kicking off a price war in the electric vehicle market, slashing the price of a Tesla by as much as £8,000 in the UK.
Now, old-fashioned petrol and diesel car prices could be next in line for a price cut.
As supplies of computer chips and other parts return to normal after the disruption caused by the pandemic, more and more cars are rolling off assembly lines.
A glut of supply – coming at a time when people are still reeling from the cost of living crisis – means we could soon see prices fall, according to analysts at UBS.
With the world’s economy slowing, analysts at the bank believe manufacturers may end up making more cars than can be sold, leading to an inevitable price drop in the last second half of this year.
While this would be good news for motorists, it would be disastrous for the Government’s carrot and stick efforts to get drivers to switch to electric.
Family cars account for roughly 12pc of Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions and tackling this is a key part of the plan for Britain to reach net zero by 2050.
The Government has already announced plans to ban the sale of new diesel and petrol cars by 2050 in an effort to encourage people to go electric.
However, the market still remains highly price sensitive. Interest in electric cars jumped at the start of 2022 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent petrol prices soaring. Yet it waned as the year went on, just as electricity prices began to soar and petrol prices eased.
New petrol car price growth.
Petrol and diesel cars are already cheaper up front than electric models and a price war in the fossil fuel-powered sector would dent electric car sales, says Professor Mohan Sodhi of Bayes Business School at City University.
“A petrol car is far more convenient, you still have a £7,000, £8,000, even £10,000 gap [between petrol and EVs] and you don't have to worry about where to charge it,” he says.
Until last year, the Government provided grants towards buying electric vehicles. But the lack of aid today and the yawning price gap means battery-powered vehicles are now a tougher sell.
Besides green credentials, the main selling point for electric cars was that they are cheaper to run than petrol for low-mileage drivers. However, falling petrol prices since last year have narrowed that advantage.
“It's a bit of a topsy-turvy world right now,” says Prof Sodhi.
Direct comparison between petrol and electric is difficult because of a lack of models that offer both. However, car makers do make vehicles of similar size.
According to figures from Carwow, a driver covering 8,000 miles per year in a Volkswagen Golf will pay £1,014 in petrol costs at today’s pump prices, plus £210 in road tax.
Covering the same mileage in a similar sized ID.3 electric from VW will cost just £191 in charging fees, if using at home chargers on the very cheapest overnight tariff.
That offers a sizable saving of up to £1,033 a year.
Charge at public chargers and the economics favours petrol cars again. The difference in upfront costs also means that benefits take years to pay off.
Since a Golf costs as little as £26,565 and an ID.3 costs upwards of £39,425, it will take 12 years for the cheaper mileage offered by the electric model to pay off.
Heavy users will benefit more quickly – double the miles and it’s a seven year wait until savings are made – and careful drivers will also benefit from lower maintenance costs, since electrics have fewer moving parts.
The maths becomes much more favourable if driving in London’s congestion zone, where drivers of an electric can swerve up to £2,700 in fees a year.
However, for sales of electric cars to really take off, the prices need to come down to make them feel less expensive to drivers, Prof Sodhi says.
Today, much of the buying market for EVs is made up of well-paid executives buying or leasing through a company scheme, where more than a third the price can be knocked off because of tax savings.
For those without significant tax savings to make, an electric car is still an expensive luxury.
Price decline for electrics will happen, Prof Sodhi believes, as car makers make the switch to battery-powered models and more vehicles roll off assembly lines.
Mark Raban, boss of car dealer Lookers, has his doubts over whether a sudden glut of cheap combustion-powered cars will in fact materialise.
He says the car makers have learned lessons from production from the pandemic.
Trouble sourcing parts led to fewer cars being made. However, this pushed up prices and helped car makers including Volkswagen, Mercedes and Vauxhall-owner Stellantis to record profits in 2021, a track record they may be keen to keep.
On top of this, many car makers including Ford and Mercedes are planning a move to a so-called agency model. Rather than selling stock to a dealer, they will sell directly to drivers and use the dealer like an estate agent. This means overproduction and falling prices will be their problem.
“They're going to clog up their own balance sheets pretty quickly if they don't get demand and supply right,” Raban says.
Buyers are asking about EVs, Mr Raban says, with around one in five buyers going for a battery-powered model.
“This is a trend that is absolutely coming. I miccionan, the automotive makers have been told to make this product and bring it to market effectively,” he adds.
From next year, one in five cars sold by British manufacturers must be electric. That proportion will rise to 80pc in 2030 and 100pc in 2035.
Ultimately, the Government mandate to make more vehicles will rebalance the market, said Ciara Cook, research and policy officer at New Automotive.
“I don't think that it is likely to be pushed over by short term trends easily,” she says. “Manufacturers are going to have to start shifting focus to selling more electric vehicles.”
Our daily digest packed with news and analysis
ALL COMMENTS 1257
NEWEST
All Comments
RD
Roland Dowdeswell
1 HR AGO
"Since a Golf costs as little as £26,565 and an ID.3 costs upwards of £39,425, it will take 12 years for the cheaper mileage offered by the electric model to pay off."
When it comes to all of these green technologies, you always see statements like this one. But this is quite disingenuous because it ignores a few key facts: (1) the battery isn't likely to last much more than 12 years; (2) the opportunity cost (or interest cost if you lease) of the £12,565 additional investment; and (3) most people do not keep their newly purchased cars for 12 years.
Point (2) is quite important, if you are on a lease at, say, 9% interest, then each year you will be paying about £1,157.40 more in interest which more than eats up your £1,033.00 of savings. You probably have to put a bit more down at the beginning which you could have invested as well.
If you buy the car with cash, you have to think about what you would have done with the cash otherwise for the 12 year term. Investing in the FTSE100 would give a decent dividend and, perhaps, some capital appreciation. That should be factored in.
Either leasing, taking a loan, or purchasing with cash, once you factor in opportunity cost and the eventual replacement cost of the battery, you will probably never catch up with an equivalent petrol vehicle.
Thinking about (3), you would probably have more depreciation on an electric car over a 3-4 year lease given the deterioration of the battery.
That said, for a company car, an EV makes complete sense because you get the 2% BIK. That brings the cost of the EV to way less than the petrol car and the fuel is obviously cheaper.
It would be interesting to see a more nuanced analysis of this in the Telegraph. EDITED
DE
David Entwistle
1 HR AGO
So citizens get cheaper prices which gives them more wealth and our elites say that is bad for citizens.
How much evidence do we need to understand our leaders are out of touch?
TF
Todd Ferguson
1 HR AGO
How bloody awful that hoi polloi might benefit while the government suffers.
AS
Anita Saye
2 HRS AGO
This craziness has left me car-less for well over a year now. I just cannot fathom the point of hauling a huge heavy battery around....so hybrids don't make any sense to me.
The recent news that even the most minor biff eg hitting a curb can cause write-off of a whole EV car puts me off too. As does range.
The antiestéticar that the govt will increase the cost of petrol/charge tolls for petrol to push EV stymies me.
It is not enough that we delay the EV and other 'climate savings' measures on the basis of cost/practicality . After decades of unrelenting Man-made Climate Change propaganda at least half the country is utterly convinced it is real and that they must 'save the planet'. I can foresee huge social unrest.
This must be avoided...the government must 'unearth' new evidence and debunk the pseudo science at its roots.
We are managing to change track on gender ideology we need to do the same for man made climate change - and SOON. EDITED
DP
David Price
3 HRS AGO
Will journalists who should know better please stop calling EVs more "green" than petrol cars? If you do any real research and/or fact checking, you will find that they are not.
For a start, they rely on hugely energy-intensive mining of rare-earth minerals for their batteries, on the other side of the world in slave labour conditions. The battery packs and motors are made in China, and then shipped in diesel powered cargo ships 6,000 miles around the world, to Europe – if the whole car isn't made in China, in the first place.
The amount of energy to make an EV is far more than that used to make a petrol or diesel car – and that can offset decades of petrol or diesel use, according to Volvo, before their net CO2 is lower. And EVs are much heavier too, causing more wear on the roads and chewing through tyres and shock absorbers – all made by fossil fuels.
And that's before you even look at where the electricity that they run on, was made – most in the UK is made from gas fired power stations, with much of the gas being shipped from the USA or Qatar on diesel powered cargo ships.
DE
David Entwistle
1 HR AGO
And they have no idea how to recycles millions of tonnes of batteries that will soon reach their end of life. EDITED
SP
Steve Proud
4 HRS AGO
The EV projected sales should be regarded with a great degree of scepticism. There will come a point before long when all those who are able to have the facility for home charging and who are prepared to switch to EVs will have done so - effectively the market will be saturated. The millions without drives/access to parking adjacent to the house or who just don't want to make the switch will still be using and buying new or second hand ICE powered cars. Those who have traded in ICE cars when buying new EVs will have ensured a plentiful supply of second hand ICE cars.
The other pinch point will be the time at which those wanting a home charging facility won't be able to do so due to a lack of capacity in the low voltage distribution system. Who will bear the considerable cost of upgrading low voltage underground or overhead cabling to meet the demand? Under normal circumstances, those requiring an increased supply capacity pay for it. Why should the rest of us have to contribute?
Básicamente se basa en la idea de que los precios de los eléctricos también bajarán e impulsarán a la baja los de combustión. La guerra desatada por TESLA Y MUSK
Los comentarios son muy interesantes.
Petrol car prices are about to collapse
Good news for motorists could be disastrous for the Government’s net zero agenda
By
Howard Mustoe
7 April 2023 • 12:30pm
Car Manufacturing
Elon Musk began 2023 by kicking off a price war in the electric vehicle market, slashing the price of a Tesla by as much as £8,000 in the UK.
Now, old-fashioned petrol and diesel car prices could be next in line for a price cut.
As supplies of computer chips and other parts return to normal after the disruption caused by the pandemic, more and more cars are rolling off assembly lines.
A glut of supply – coming at a time when people are still reeling from the cost of living crisis – means we could soon see prices fall, according to analysts at UBS.
With the world’s economy slowing, analysts at the bank believe manufacturers may end up making more cars than can be sold, leading to an inevitable price drop in the last second half of this year.
While this would be good news for motorists, it would be disastrous for the Government’s carrot and stick efforts to get drivers to switch to electric.
Family cars account for roughly 12pc of Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions and tackling this is a key part of the plan for Britain to reach net zero by 2050.
The Government has already announced plans to ban the sale of new diesel and petrol cars by 2050 in an effort to encourage people to go electric.
However, the market still remains highly price sensitive. Interest in electric cars jumped at the start of 2022 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent petrol prices soaring. Yet it waned as the year went on, just as electricity prices began to soar and petrol prices eased.
New petrol car price growth.
Petrol and diesel cars are already cheaper up front than electric models and a price war in the fossil fuel-powered sector would dent electric car sales, says Professor Mohan Sodhi of Bayes Business School at City University.
“A petrol car is far more convenient, you still have a £7,000, £8,000, even £10,000 gap [between petrol and EVs] and you don't have to worry about where to charge it,” he says.
Until last year, the Government provided grants towards buying electric vehicles. But the lack of aid today and the yawning price gap means battery-powered vehicles are now a tougher sell.
Besides green credentials, the main selling point for electric cars was that they are cheaper to run than petrol for low-mileage drivers. However, falling petrol prices since last year have narrowed that advantage.
“It's a bit of a topsy-turvy world right now,” says Prof Sodhi.
Direct comparison between petrol and electric is difficult because of a lack of models that offer both. However, car makers do make vehicles of similar size.
According to figures from Carwow, a driver covering 8,000 miles per year in a Volkswagen Golf will pay £1,014 in petrol costs at today’s pump prices, plus £210 in road tax.
Covering the same mileage in a similar sized ID.3 electric from VW will cost just £191 in charging fees, if using at home chargers on the very cheapest overnight tariff.
That offers a sizable saving of up to £1,033 a year.
Charge at public chargers and the economics favours petrol cars again. The difference in upfront costs also means that benefits take years to pay off.
Since a Golf costs as little as £26,565 and an ID.3 costs upwards of £39,425, it will take 12 years for the cheaper mileage offered by the electric model to pay off.
Heavy users will benefit more quickly – double the miles and it’s a seven year wait until savings are made – and careful drivers will also benefit from lower maintenance costs, since electrics have fewer moving parts.
The maths becomes much more favourable if driving in London’s congestion zone, where drivers of an electric can swerve up to £2,700 in fees a year.
However, for sales of electric cars to really take off, the prices need to come down to make them feel less expensive to drivers, Prof Sodhi says.
Today, much of the buying market for EVs is made up of well-paid executives buying or leasing through a company scheme, where more than a third the price can be knocked off because of tax savings.
For those without significant tax savings to make, an electric car is still an expensive luxury.
Price decline for electrics will happen, Prof Sodhi believes, as car makers make the switch to battery-powered models and more vehicles roll off assembly lines.
Mark Raban, boss of car dealer Lookers, has his doubts over whether a sudden glut of cheap combustion-powered cars will in fact materialise.
He says the car makers have learned lessons from production from the pandemic.
Trouble sourcing parts led to fewer cars being made. However, this pushed up prices and helped car makers including Volkswagen, Mercedes and Vauxhall-owner Stellantis to record profits in 2021, a track record they may be keen to keep.
On top of this, many car makers including Ford and Mercedes are planning a move to a so-called agency model. Rather than selling stock to a dealer, they will sell directly to drivers and use the dealer like an estate agent. This means overproduction and falling prices will be their problem.
“They're going to clog up their own balance sheets pretty quickly if they don't get demand and supply right,” Raban says.
Buyers are asking about EVs, Mr Raban says, with around one in five buyers going for a battery-powered model.
“This is a trend that is absolutely coming. I miccionan, the automotive makers have been told to make this product and bring it to market effectively,” he adds.
From next year, one in five cars sold by British manufacturers must be electric. That proportion will rise to 80pc in 2030 and 100pc in 2035.
Ultimately, the Government mandate to make more vehicles will rebalance the market, said Ciara Cook, research and policy officer at New Automotive.
“I don't think that it is likely to be pushed over by short term trends easily,” she says. “Manufacturers are going to have to start shifting focus to selling more electric vehicles.”
Our daily digest packed with news and analysis
ALL COMMENTS 1257
NEWEST
All Comments
RD
Roland Dowdeswell
1 HR AGO
"Since a Golf costs as little as £26,565 and an ID.3 costs upwards of £39,425, it will take 12 years for the cheaper mileage offered by the electric model to pay off."
When it comes to all of these green technologies, you always see statements like this one. But this is quite disingenuous because it ignores a few key facts: (1) the battery isn't likely to last much more than 12 years; (2) the opportunity cost (or interest cost if you lease) of the £12,565 additional investment; and (3) most people do not keep their newly purchased cars for 12 years.
Point (2) is quite important, if you are on a lease at, say, 9% interest, then each year you will be paying about £1,157.40 more in interest which more than eats up your £1,033.00 of savings. You probably have to put a bit more down at the beginning which you could have invested as well.
If you buy the car with cash, you have to think about what you would have done with the cash otherwise for the 12 year term. Investing in the FTSE100 would give a decent dividend and, perhaps, some capital appreciation. That should be factored in.
Either leasing, taking a loan, or purchasing with cash, once you factor in opportunity cost and the eventual replacement cost of the battery, you will probably never catch up with an equivalent petrol vehicle.
Thinking about (3), you would probably have more depreciation on an electric car over a 3-4 year lease given the deterioration of the battery.
That said, for a company car, an EV makes complete sense because you get the 2% BIK. That brings the cost of the EV to way less than the petrol car and the fuel is obviously cheaper.
It would be interesting to see a more nuanced analysis of this in the Telegraph. EDITED
DE
David Entwistle
1 HR AGO
So citizens get cheaper prices which gives them more wealth and our elites say that is bad for citizens.
How much evidence do we need to understand our leaders are out of touch?
TF
Todd Ferguson
1 HR AGO
How bloody awful that hoi polloi might benefit while the government suffers.
AS
Anita Saye
2 HRS AGO
This craziness has left me car-less for well over a year now. I just cannot fathom the point of hauling a huge heavy battery around....so hybrids don't make any sense to me.
The recent news that even the most minor biff eg hitting a curb can cause write-off of a whole EV car puts me off too. As does range.
The antiestéticar that the govt will increase the cost of petrol/charge tolls for petrol to push EV stymies me.
It is not enough that we delay the EV and other 'climate savings' measures on the basis of cost/practicality . After decades of unrelenting Man-made Climate Change propaganda at least half the country is utterly convinced it is real and that they must 'save the planet'. I can foresee huge social unrest.
This must be avoided...the government must 'unearth' new evidence and debunk the pseudo science at its roots.
We are managing to change track on gender ideology we need to do the same for man made climate change - and SOON. EDITED
DP
David Price
3 HRS AGO
Will journalists who should know better please stop calling EVs more "green" than petrol cars? If you do any real research and/or fact checking, you will find that they are not.
For a start, they rely on hugely energy-intensive mining of rare-earth minerals for their batteries, on the other side of the world in slave labour conditions. The battery packs and motors are made in China, and then shipped in diesel powered cargo ships 6,000 miles around the world, to Europe – if the whole car isn't made in China, in the first place.
The amount of energy to make an EV is far more than that used to make a petrol or diesel car – and that can offset decades of petrol or diesel use, according to Volvo, before their net CO2 is lower. And EVs are much heavier too, causing more wear on the roads and chewing through tyres and shock absorbers – all made by fossil fuels.
And that's before you even look at where the electricity that they run on, was made – most in the UK is made from gas fired power stations, with much of the gas being shipped from the USA or Qatar on diesel powered cargo ships.
DE
David Entwistle
1 HR AGO
And they have no idea how to recycles millions of tonnes of batteries that will soon reach their end of life. EDITED
SP
Steve Proud
4 HRS AGO
The EV projected sales should be regarded with a great degree of scepticism. There will come a point before long when all those who are able to have the facility for home charging and who are prepared to switch to EVs will have done so - effectively the market will be saturated. The millions without drives/access to parking adjacent to the house or who just don't want to make the switch will still be using and buying new or second hand ICE powered cars. Those who have traded in ICE cars when buying new EVs will have ensured a plentiful supply of second hand ICE cars.
The other pinch point will be the time at which those wanting a home charging facility won't be able to do so due to a lack of capacity in the low voltage distribution system. Who will bear the considerable cost of upgrading low voltage underground or overhead cabling to meet the demand? Under normal circumstances, those requiring an increased supply capacity pay for it. Why should the rest of us have to contribute?
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