China pide paso... II

[Serpiente_Plyskeen]

Viene de:
http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/burbuja-inmobiliaria/111369-china-pide-paso.html
El primer hilo ha sido cerrado (ya iba por las 228 páginas), y no me consta que se haya abierto la segunda parte (si lo está, pido fusión, porque ni lo he encontrado ni aparece en la lista de hilos con nombres similares), así que la abro yo.

En fin, aumenta la preocupación sobre la futura evolución de la economía china (o , para quien lo prefiera, el escepticismo acerca del "milagro chino"):
China's economy stumbles in May, growth may fall in second quarter | Reuters

China's economy stumbles in May, growth may fall in second quarter

By Langi Chiang and Jonathan Standing

BEIJING | Mon Jun 10, 2013 6:25am BST

(Reuters) - Risks are rising that China's economic growth will fall further in the second quarter and that full-year forecasts will be cut further, after weekend data showed weakness in May exports and domestic activity struggling to pick up.

Evidence has mounted in recent weeks that China's economic growth is fast losing momentum, but Premier Li Keqiang tried to strike a reassuring note, saying the economy was generally stable and that growth was within a "relatively high and reasonable range".

China's economy grew at its slowest pace for 13 years in 2012 and so far this year economic data has surprised on the downside, bringing warnings from some analysts that the country could miss its growth target of 7.5 percent for this year.

"Growth remains unconvincing and the momentum seems to have lost pace in May," Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS, said in a note. "The short-term growth outlook remains subject to risks and we may well end up revising down our growth forecast for 2013 further."

Exports posted their lowest annual growth rate in almost a year in May at 1 percent, exposing a more realistic picture of trade amowing a crackdown by authorities on currency speculation disguised as export trades to skirt capital controls.

That speculation had created double-digit rises in export growth every month this year even as world growth stuttered.

May exports to both the United States and the European Union - China's top two markets - both fell from a year earlier for the third month running.

Imports fell 0.3 percent, against expectations for a 6 percent rise, as the volume of many commodity shipments fell from a year earlier.

The volume of major metals imports, including copper and alumina, fell at double-digit rates. Coal imports fell sharply.

"The trade data reflects the sluggish domestic and overseas demand, signalling a slower-than-expected recovery in the second quarter," said Shen Lan, an economist at Standard Chartered bank in Shanghai.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars plumbed fresh multi-month lows on Monday after the data from China, the biggest export market for both countries, while London copper fell to its lowest since mid-May on concerns over Chinese industrial demand.

China's financial markets are closed for a public holiday from Monday to Wednesday, but Hong Kong shares rose 0.5 percent and Japanese and South Korean shares also rose, taking heart from solid U.S. jobs data..

SLOW AT HOME TOO

A government factory survey of purchasing managers and a similar poll sponsored by HSBC, both issued earlier this month, showed export orders falling in May, suggesting the outlook remained grim.

Inflation, bank-lending growth and investment were below expectations in May, while factory output and retail sales rose around the same pace as in April.

China's consumer inflation slowed to 2.1 percent, the lowest in three months, while producer prices (PPI) fell 2.9 percent, the lowest since September. A Reuters poll had forecast consumer inflation at 2.5 percent and factory-gate prices down 2.5 percent.

"The inflation data showed China's economic growth continued to slow down. Second-quarter growth is probably even slower than the first quarter. In particular, the PPI data showed very weak demand," said Jianguang Shen, chief China economist at Mizuho Securities Asia in Hong Kong.

Central bank data showed Chinese banks made 667.4 billion yuan ($109 billion) in new loans in May, below market expectations of 850 billion yuan and down from April's 792.9 billion yuan.

M2 money supply rose 15.8 percent from a year earlier, slightly below a median forecast of 15.9 percent, while total social financing, a broad measure of cash in the economy, was 1.19 trillion yuan versus 1.75 trillion yuan in April.

Retail sales, fixed-asset investment and industrial output met expectations, rising 12.9 percent, 20.4 percent and 9.2 percent from a year earlier, respectively.

RATES AND OTHER REMEDIES

Economic growth slipped to 7.7 percent in the first quarter, down from 7.9 percent in the previous quarter. Both the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development cut their forecasts for China's 2013 economic growth in May, to 7.75 percent and 7.8 percent respectively.

But the further loss of momentum in April and May could prompt the central bank to try to give the economy a lift, said Jian Chang, China economist for Barclays in Hong Kong.

"We had expected an L-shaped economic recovery in China and that the growth would stabilise at around 7.9 percent," Chang said.

"We now think China's growth will stabilise at around 7.6 percent (this year). The possibility for the central bank to cut interest rates is now rising," Chang said.

In a later note she cut her 2013 forecast to growth of 7.4 percent from a previous 7.9 percent, and her 2014 growth forecast to 7.4 percent from 8.1 percent.

Government economists from top think-tanks in Beijing told Reuters last week that the new leadership of President Xi Jinping and Premier Li would tolerate quarterly growth slipping as far as 7 percent year-on-year before looking to lift the economy, focusing on economic reforms rather than short-term stimulus.

Li was quoted by state television as saying that China's economy was generally stable, while China Central TV reported that Xi told U.S. President Barack Obama during his visit to the United States that "we are confident of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth".

He acknowledged China was at a "critical moment of economic restructuring" but that it would bring "enormous" potential.

Cutting interest rates would be a difficult decision for the central bank for antiestéticar that providing cheaper credit could exacerbate a rise in property prices, which policymakers have been trying to contain.

"Property prices will jump if it cuts rates as recent government cooling measures have not achieved desired results," said Tang Jianwei, senior economist at Bank of Communications in Shanghai.

"And cutting rates may not be effective in slowing speculative money inflows, which are mainly driven by expectations of yuan appreciation."

Most economists agree however that the government will avoid major stimulus along the lines of its 4 trillion yuan package unleashed in response to the global financial crisis in 2008. It sparked a lending boom, which fuelled a property bubble and left local governments under a pile of debt.

The new leadership is keen to push economic restructuring towards domestic consumption and away from reliance on exports and investment for growth.

Sources told Reuters in May that a consensus had been reached among top leaders that reforms would be the only way to put the world's second-largest economy on a more sustainable footing.

¿Se está gestando un 'Minsky moment' en China? - LAS PERLAS DE KIKE - Cotizalia.com

¿Se está gestando un 'Minsky moment' en China?

LAS PERLAS DE KIKE
10/06/2013

Hyman Minsky, un economista revolucionario que criticó la eficiencia de los mercados mientras ésta encandilaba a la mayoría de compañeros de profesión de la época. Él observaba euforias y depresiones, burbujas de crédito y pánicos, observaba poca racionalidad y mucha psicología humana, por lo que sus teorías fueron poco convencionales… y también poco escuchadas. Murió en el año 1996 sin encontrar el reconocimiento que se merecía, pero hoy, años después y con varias crisis a nuestras espaldas, se estandariza un nuevo concepto: el “Minsky moment”. Las ideas de Hyman Minsky vuelven con más fuerza que nunca.

¿Qué es el “momento Minsky”? Se dice que fue Paul McCulley, de PIMCO, quien en 1998 acuñó dicho término para referirse a la posible última etapa de una burbuja financiera, por aquel entonces hablando de Rusia. Tras la euforia, la asunción excesiva de riesgo y deuda, llega un punto en el cual los activos dejan de subir y se produce una venta desordenada; se saldan activos en busca de liquidez para hacer frente a la carga financiera, pero nadie parece estar dispuesto a comprar, por lo que se produce un aparentemente irracional “Minsky moment”. O en palabras de Krugman, el punto en el cual los “margin calls” provocan el desapalancamiento. La presente crisis le ha dado la razón.

Si bien, la pregunta que se están haciendo ahora mismo la mayoría de analistas a lo largo del mundo es, ¿se está gestando un “Minksy moment” en China? Y todo por un informe de Yao Wei, una economista de Societe Generale, en donde calcula el “Debt Service Ratio” del país con un resultado inesperado. El Debt Service Ratio (DSR) es el ratio resultante de sumar el principal a pagar más los intereses y dividirlo entre los ingresos, o lo que es lo mismo, ¿cuánto hay que pagar y cuánto tenemos para ello? (Existen discrepancias sobre la nomenclatura, usando en este caso la del BIS, ver también Debt Coverage Ratio).

Este ratio se considera uno de los indicadores más fiables de salud financiera, pues no solo tiene en cuenta el nivel de deuda (como sería el caso de “Deuda / PIB”), sino que también valora el tipo de interés y el vencimiento, mostrando la verdadera capacidad de hacer frente a la deuda. El BIS observa que aquellos países que superan un nivel del 20% - 25% de carga financiera en relación a sus ingresos, tienen altas probabilidades de sufrir una crisis financiera – bancaria, ocurriendo eso en los casos analizados y en otros incluso con un ratio menor.

¿Qué ocurre con China? Asumiendo una deuda privada del 145% sobre el PIB, un tipo de interés medio del 7,8% y un vencimiento medio de 6,3 años, y asumiendo que toda esa deuda tiene carga financiera, Yao Wei llega a la conclusión, según palabras recogidas por FT Alphaville, de que:

“(…) we then arrive at a shockingly high debt service ratio of 29.9% of GDP, of which 11.1% goes to interest payment (=7.8%×145 % of GDP) and the rest principal. At such a level, no wonder that credit growth is accelerating without contributing much to real growth!”

¡Han leído bien, un Debt Service Ratio (DSR) de casi el 30% del PIB! ¡Una locura absoluta! ¿Cómo puede ser esto posible? Pues Yao Wei cree que seguramente sea en realidad algo menor, aunque igualmente por encima de los niveles que llevaron a la crisis a países como Finlandia (1990), Corea (1997), o Reino Unido, EEUU y España en la crisis actual, por lo que su conclusión es que:

“The assumption of an instalment-loan schedule implies that roll-over is not an option and all debt is fully repaid at maturity. This is clearly not the case in China. Otherwise, the 1% non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of the formal banking system would be simply impossible to explain - not to mention the zero default record kept by China’s domestic bond market or by the vast numbers of low-return infrastructure LGFVs (…) the logical conclusion has to be that a non-negligible share of the corporate sector is not able to repay either principal or interest, which qualifies as Ponzi financing in a Minsky framework”

Teniendo en cuenta el nivel de jovenlandesesidad, que se encuentra en torno al 1%, la economista cree que solo existe una forma de explicarlo y es la refinanciación masiva de los riesgos asumidos. O lo que es lo mismo, “patada hacia delante” en la jerga española, o “delay and pray” y “kick the can down the road” en la anglosajona. ¿Qué ocurrirá con todos estos riesgos refinanciados cuando la economía no repunte sino que vaya a menos? He ahí el temor a un “Minksy moment” que se ha extendido por el mundo financiero. Y es que se nota que les falta un Ministro Guindos con la mano ligera firmando Decretos…

No solo en SocGen andan preocupados, Charlene Chu, hoy va de mujeres el artículo, Director Senior de entidades financieras en Fitch, también nos da datos para reflexionar. China ha aumentado sus activos en 5 años en un importe superior a los activos del sistema bancario de EEUU, según sus cálculos habrían aumentado 71 billones de yuanes de 2008 a 2012 y aumentarían en 20 billones más en 2013, lo que equivale a unos 14 – 15 billones de dólares, mientras que el balance del sistema bancario de EEUU es de 13,4 billones de dólares según la Reserva Federal. Y por si aun consiguen conciliar el sueño esta noche, hay más.

Estima el ratio de deuda total sobre PIB en un 198% sobre el PIB, siendo del 125% hace 4 años, esto es, 73 puntos porcentuales de aumento. Japón aumentó su deuda en 45 pp de 1985 a 1990, Corea en 47 pp de 1994 a 1998 : con unos ratios menos preocupantes ambos tuvieron importantes crisis. Chu concluye que “no hay forma de salir de un problema de deuda cuando ésta es el doble que el PIB y crece el doble de rápido” y advierte sobre la jovenlandesesidad, ya que en su opinión lo que está haciendo el sistema financiero es sacar de balance todo préstamo con algún problema de jovenlandesesidad empaquetados en los conocidos como Wealth Management Products (WMP), lo que podría explicar el escandaloso aumento del “Shadow Banking” en los últimos meses y augurar problemas futuros.

Pero tranquilidad, no pasa nada, el PIB crece menos pero todo está en calma… o eso dicen. Quizá sí, o quizá no, porque cosas raras sí empiezan a verse. La última semana ha sido el SHIBOR, el indicador del interbancario chino equivalente al Euribor o al Libor. Tradicionalmente los chinos en la antesala de ciertas festividades atesoran un importante nivel de cash, algo que explica que, esperando el “Dragon Boat Festival”, el Shibor haya subido. Sí, en parte lo explica, ¿pero lo explica totalmente?

Se muestra el Shibor en sus referencias overnight, a una semana, a dos, a un mes y a tres meses. Como puede observarse las presentes tensiones de liquidez del interbancario no son habituales aun teniendo en cuenta las festividades, de hecho según Reuters el viernes se habrían visto quotes del 15% en el ON. Podrían ser solo tensiones temporales como ha ocurrido en el pasado, pero hay rumores que dicen todo lo contrario. El PBOC puede eliminar las tensiones cuando quiera, pero aquí algo está pasando, algo como esto:

China Everbright Bank Co. failed to repay 6 billion yuan borrowed from Industrial Bank Co. on time yesterday because of tight liquidity conditions (…) Industrial Bank said market speculation that Everbright Bank failed to repay it more than 100 billion yuan was “untrue and exaggerated,”

Al parecer China Everbright Bank, un banco mediano, no habría podido satisfacer sus compromisos en el mercado repo, dejando sin pagar una cantidad que se estima en 6 mil millones de yuanes (unos 978 millones de dólares), pero que podría haber sido muy superior. Todo ello coincidente con un momento en el que el Gobierno Central se ha propuesto eliminar las entradas ilícitas de capitales en el país, que se realizaba alterando las declaraciones de lo que se exportaba e importaba. Esto ha llevado a que las cifras de exportación reduzcan su crecimiento de un +14,7% en abril a un +1% en mayo, por debajo de todas las previsiones y dejando en entredicho nuevamente sus cifras de PIB.

Así, obtenemos un país con un crecimiento de crédito desmesurado, cuyos activos bancarios crecen más en 5 años que todo el sistema bancario de EEUU, un país con una carga financiera sin parangón a nivel mundial, un país donde la jovenlandesesidad se oculta bien por refinanciaciones bien por colocaciones mediante WMP, donde una mínima tensión de liquidez se convierte en un efecto en cadena, y donde las estadísticas están totalmente falseadas; recordemos que China es el único país del mundo en donde todas sus provincias crecen por encima de la media. No sé qué opinaría Minsky al respecto pero, parecer, parece que se cumplen todos los requisitos. ¿Habrá "Minsky moment"?

Mientras parece encrudecerse la guerra comercial:
Exclusive: EU to seek WTO ruling against Chinese steel duties - sources | Reuters

Exclusive - EU to seek WTO ruling against Chinese steel duties: sources

By Ethan Bilby

BRUSSELS | Tue Jun 11, 2013 9:55am BST

(Reuters) - The European Union plans to lodge a case with the World Trade Organization against Chinese duties on specialised steel tubes, EU sources said on Tuesday, opening another front in a rapidly escalating trade conflict with Beijing.

The move will allow the EU to join a related complaint filed by Japan against Chinese duties in December.

The EU complaint would seek to overturn Chinese duties on exports of seamless stainless steel tubes made by firms such as Spain's Tubacex S.A and Germany's Salzgitter A.G, the sources said. The sources asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the case.

The filing, which may come as soon as Thursday or Friday, will send a signal to China that the EU is willing to take legal action against any duties it considers to be based on retaliation rather than objective evidence.

It amows China's decision last week to investigate alleged dumping of EU wine in apparent retaliation against the EU imposing provisional duties on Chinese solar panels, the biggest trade case the EU has launched.

WTO rules prevent members from levelling tit-for-tat sanctions, instead requiring proof assembled via a thorough investigation that a country's industry has suffered damage before any duties can be imposed.

The sources said the stainless steel case was separate from the dispute over solar panels and wine. Under WTO rules, the EU had a limited time to join the complaint filed by Japan.

In February, the EU won a similar WTO dispute against Chinese duties on X-ray scanners, with a settlement panel in Geneva agreeing the duties imposed by China had not been the result of a proper and thorough investigation.

One EU diplomat said victory in the X-ray scanners case, which was the first time Brussels had challenged Chinese trade defence measures before, emboldened the EU.

"The Commission is quite confident that retaliation by the Chinese is now recognised, so they think they have a good chance to win," the source said.

Another source said the European Commission, the EU's executive, will brief the Chinese on Thursday before opening the complaint on behalf of the EU, ahead of a meeting of EU trade ministers in Luxembourg on Friday.

The Commission's spokesman on trade issues was not immediately reachable for comment.

Japan is challenging the Chinese steel tube duties and how they were applied, alleging China did not have enough evidence and kept what it did have secret, shielding the companies who had complained.

Used in coal-fired power plants, the tubes are made in Japan by firms such as Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp among others.

Japanese stainless steel tube exports to China were worth 5.8 billion yen (37.6 million pounds) in 2011. EU exports are estimated to be in the tens of millions of euros.

Así como el Shadow Banking, que los CMs chinos intentan hacernos creer que son préstamos familiares (lo que por supuesto es una contradicción con las cifras de crecimiento de crédito):
Fitch warns on risks from shadow banking in China | Reuters

Fitch warns on risks from shadow banking in China

FRANKFURT | Mon Jun 10, 2013 12:56pm EDT

(Reuters) - China's unregulated shadow banking sector poses an increasing risk to the country's financial stability that could spread to other countries, credit rating agency Fitch said on Monday.

China has tens of thousands of non-bank lenders that are providing increasing amounts of credit to businesses and government outside the mainstream, regulated banking sector, a situation that is stoking systemic risk, Fitch said.

There is little visib1lity on where the money is going, who is lending it or what the credit quality of assets is, meaning traditional warning signs of trouble will not function properly.

"It is a wild west atmosphere in many respects and that is one of the reasons why we are so worried," Fitch Senior Director Charlene Chu told a conference in Frankfurt.

Regulators had little insight into the non-bank sector.

"It is a material risk because a growing amount of credit is being extended through channels that they don't have transparency or control over," Chu said.

Chinese authorities have been working to improve transparency in the financial sector, but Fitch said it was hard to get a handle on the problem, which hurts the effectiveness of monetary policy, will complicate the winding down of any institutions that fail and could also eventually put downward pressure on China's sovereign rating.

The country's bank regulator, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), publishes statistics on non-performing loans, for example, but this is of limited use, Chu said.

"A 1 percent NPL ratio has little signaling value when 36 percent of all outstanding credit resides outside Chinese banks' loan portfolios," she said.

Banks are likely to be on the hook for bailing out non-banks in trouble, because the only efficient way to deal with shadow bank exposures is to transfer the risks to the formal banking sector, Chu said.

The country was already seeing defaults in trust and wealth management products that could be an early sign of trouble.

"Stress will appear in the weakest parts of the financial sector, which tend to be non-bank financial institutions on the fringe of the system - and gradually work its way inward," she predicted.

While there are some factors mitigating the situation, such as China's closed capital account, deep central bank reserves, the fact that funding is largely domestic and the main borrowers and banks are state-owned, there was still a potential for contagion, Chu said.

The foreign owners of stakes in Chinese banks already saw big writedowns on those stakes in the 2008 financial crisis and this could happen again, she pointed out.

There is also about $1 trillion in credit exposure by foreign banks to Chinese banks and corporations but this was also manageable.

"The bigger issue is what is it going to miccionan for growth and confidence, which could play out in a very negative way because China has been so important to the global growth story," she said.

Por cierto, importante reseñar que China acaba de lanzar una nueva misión espacial:
Chinese rocket launch marks giant leap towards space station - FT.com
Así como que en Hong Kong cada vez parece haber más protestas Anti-República Popular (aprovechando el aniversario de Tiananmen):
Occupy Hong Kong group moves to allay antiestéticars of protest violence | Asia News – Politics, Media, Education | Asian Correspondent

Occupy Hong Kong group moves to allay antiestéticars of protest violence
By Asian Correspondent Jun 11, 2013 3:04PM UTC

By Nicholas Olczak

Organisers of Hong Kong’s Occupy Central movement are seeking to counter antiestéticars amowing warnings that their planned civil disobedience action could become violent and would be damaging to the city’s businesses.

First proposed by Hong Kong University law professor Benny Tai Yiu-ting, Occupy Central is a plan to campaign for democracy in Hong Kong by holding a large-scale civil disobedience action blocking the roads of the city’s Central district in July 2014. Organisers have suggested that 10,000 protestors might be involved.

An anti-government protester carries a Hong Kong colonial flag blocking the main road in downtown, at Central on New Year's Day in Hong Kong. Pic: AP.

On June 9, several hundred Occupy Central supporters including pro-democracy lawmakers held the first of three planned deliberation days at Hong Kong University to discuss the direction the movement would take.

Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-yin warned that the civil disobedience action would not be tolerated by the government or the courts and said it was not possible that the protest could be conducted peacefully.

“Once the occupy action takes place … there will be no possibility of it being lawful or peaceful,” the South China Morning Post reports him as saying. “The government will not tolerate law-breaking activities.”

Ching Cheong, a veteran political commentator who attended the deliberation meeting, told media he was worried that the action could lead to violence similar to that which ended the demonstrations in Tiananmen Square in 1989. He said the People’s Liberation Army had recently conducted drills in Hong Kong, and so the central government could be ready to suppress protest.

Organisers of the Occupy Central movement responded to the warnings by saying they would make keeping the protests peaceful a priority.

They said they were seeking to develop a mechanism for deciding when the protests would be called to an end. Tai said that the organisers would discuss such a mechanism, along with other means of ensuring the occupation stayed non-violent, in the coming months.

“If there’s a real occupation, we will issue very good guidelines to our participants on how to ensure the action will be non-violent,” Tai told the South China Morning Post. Ensuring “that [each individual] must not only make sure [he or she] remained non-violent, but that they are also responsible for making sure other participants [don't get too agitated].”

In January 2010, a small number of those gathered outside Hong Kong’s legislative council to protest a proposed high-speed rail project scuffled with riot police wielding plastic shields and pepper spray in a rare example of a local protest turning more violent.

Major Hong Kong business groups have also expressed concern that the proposed civil disobedience action would hurt business. Last month, the Chinese General Chamber of Commerce and the Chinese Manufacturers’ Association of Hong Kong published newspaper statements saying they felt the disobedience would damage the local business environment.

“The damage that Occupy Central would do to our economy is beyond estimation,” one statement said. “The financial sector estimates that if the stock market is hamstrung the loss in transactions could amount to tens of billion dollars in one hour.”

The Heung Yee Kuk, an advisory body representing rural communities in Hong Kong, published an advert calling for the action to be abandoned and saying it threatened the city’s harmony and stability. Henry Cheng Kar-shun, chairman of New World Development chairman also criticised the plans.

“No matter what Occupy Central was aimed at and how would it make use of loopholes in the law, it is illegal,” he said. “And [it] will affect Hong Kong’s economic and financial order”.

Supporters of Occupy Central attending the June 9 deliberation session agreed to better promote the planned protest in order to counter these suggestions that it would hurt business. They said they would shift the protest’s emphasis to that of mass participation.

 

[optimistic1985]

China es una burbuja de papel

 

[Lukanikos]

Mítico hilo en sitio pillo.

 

[Docma]

Dan la impresión de haberse estrellado antes de "adelantar".......

Por desgracia, nosotros vamos en el "maletero".......

 

[Namreir]

Uno se fija en China y se dice: No, estos no lograran el sorpasso jamas; luego se fija en Esrados Unidos y se dice: Puffff, que mala pinta tiene esto, fijo que los chinos les dan una pasada en dos o tres añitos.

 

[kemao2]

El crecimiento japones via impresora y devaluaciones con su guerra de divisas se va a hacer a costa del crecimiento chino, esta guerra por el comercio internacional va a ser interesante.

 

[dick jones]

Vamos a estrenar el hilo.

Escalada de la guerra comercial, o eso dicen, o no, o cualquiera sabe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/business/global/us-and-european-union-set-to-negotiate-settlements-in-chinese-solar-panel-cases.html?pagewanted=all

U.S. and Europe Prepare to Settle Chinese Solar Panel Cases

HONG KONG — The Obama administration and the European Union have each decided to negotiate settlements with China in the world’s largest antidumping and antisubsidy trade cases involving China’s roughly $30 billion a year in solar panel shipments to the West, officials and trade advisers in Beijing, Brussels and Washington said.

The plan that is starting to take shape would essentially carve up the global solar panel market into a series of regional markets. It would sharply raise the price of solar panels exported from China, the world’s dominant producer, by requiring Chinese companies to charge more while limiting the total number of solar panels they could ship.

In exchange, Chinese companies would no longer be charged steep taxes on their exports of solar panels. The United States is already collecting tariffs totaling about 30 percent while the European Union is expected to impose similar tariffs of about 50 percent on June 5, and may backdate them to March 5.

Parallel decisions by the Obama administration and the European Union to separately negotiate high prices for imported solar panels may prove unpopular among environmentalists. Some environmental groups are already upset that the tariffs have made solar energy less affordable, making it less competitive with more polluting fossil fuels.

Huge shipments from China have driven solar panel prices down by three-quarters in the last four years. American and European producers contend that much of that decline represents the effect of Chinese government subsidies and Chinese dumping of solar panels below the cost of producing them, which means that a negotiated settlement could need to push prices up significantly.

The goal of the current tariffs, and of the price and quantity regulations that could replace them, is to protect American and European manufacturers from what they and the Obama administration describe as unfair competition. Western manufacturers and the administration say that Chinese solar panels are heavily subsidized by the Chinese government and then dumped in foreign markets at prices far below the cost of production.

Two dozen American and European solar panel manufacturers have already cut back production or gone bankrupt in the last three years, moves widely attributed to Chinese imports.

Francisco Sanchez, the under secretary of commerce for international trade, has just flown to Beijing for a visit to discuss civilian nuclear power trade issues, people with a detailed knowledge of his visit said. Mr. Sanchez has a long agenda of bilateral trade issues to discuss that includes mentioning an American interest in negotiations, a person with detailed knowledge of his visit said.

The Commerce Department deferred on Monday to the United States trade representative’s office about what Mr. Sanchez would say in Beijing about solar panels.

The Obama administration is in the earliest stages of sounding out Congress about the shift toward replacing tariffs with a negotiated settlement. Senator Ron Wyden, the Oregon Democrat whose state is a center of solar panel production, said that he supported a negotiated deal.

“We are really at a fork in the road with respect to producing renewable energy technology in the United States,” he said. “This is the moment for the administration to obtain a global agreement that levels the playing field for American producers and provides the certainty needed for America’s renewable energy, and solar sector in particular, to survive.”

Chinese producers have partly bypassed the American tariffs by performing one stage in the solar panel manufacturing process outside mainland China: turning solar wafers into solar cells in nearby Taiwan.

A negotiated deal would close the loophole in the American tariffs; the European trade case does not have the same loophole.

China has retaliated for American and European tariffs on solar panels by moving to impose steep tariffs on imports of the main raw material for solar panels, polysilicon. A negotiated settlement would also involve China’s removal of these retaliatory tariffs.

Under American and European laws, antidumping and antisubsidy tariffs cannot be replaced with a negotiated settlement unless the domestic industry agrees. European and American producers have been wary of accepting any negotiated deal that does not set a large increase in prices.

“It has to be reasonably high to really exclude the impact of dumping,” said a European industry official who insisted on anonymity.

Negotiations with China are still in a very early stage, so it may take several months before a final deal, if any, is struck. And it is possible that no deal will emerge at all, in which case steep American tariffs will remain in place and European taxes will also be imposed.

Carol J. Guthrie, the spokeswoman for the White House’s Office of the United States Trade Representative, declined to comment on whether the administration was negotiating with China.

“Our goal is to support a healthy global solar industry in conditions that foster the adoption of renewable energy and continued innovation and a level playing field for all,” she said. “Toward those ends, we will continue to work with industry and our trading partners to explore ways to resolve concerns.”

China’s Ministry of Commerce had no comment on Monday in response to questions submitted by phone and by fax about the American initiative. But Li Junfeng, a senior energy policy maker at the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planning agency, said that China would welcome negotiations.

“Negotiations are better than a fight — a fight hurts both sides,” said Mr. Li, who is also the president of the government-controlled Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association. “You should have some quota or market share, that would be fair.”

But a European Union official cautioned that reaching a negotiated settlement would be difficult. European negotiators have already met three times with Chinese officials at the request of the Chinese side, but at none of these meetings has China put forward any plan to limit export volumes or raise prices, said the official, who also insisted on anonymity.

The solar panel issue has emerged as an unexpected challenge for when the world’s trade ministers gather from Dec. 3-6 in Bali to negotiate a global deal to broaden the World Trade Organization. If no negotiated settlement is reached before then, inflexible European Union regulations require a final decision by Dec. 5, in the middle of the Bali talks, on whether to turn preliminary antidumping duties on Chinese solar panels into tariffs that would last for five years — a move that could antagonize China, a major player in the global trade talks.

Paneles solares II, no si yo no he sido:

Most EU states oppose Chinese solar panel duties: diplomats | Reuters

Most EU states oppose Chinese solar panel duties: diplomats

A majority of EU governments oppose the European Commission's plans to levy prohibitive duties on solar panel imports from China, a survey of member states by Reuters showed on Monday, weakening Brussels' efforts to pressure Beijing.

The European Commission is set to impose duties averaging 47 percent in place from June 6, but the sanctions are provisional and EU trade chief Karel De Gucht is seeking a negotiated solution with the Chinese government.

The EU's 27 countries had until Friday to submit a written response to De Gucht's plans to go ahead with the duties, in a non-binding vote that nonetheless has a strong bearing on the Commission's room for maneuver.

antiestéticarful of losing business in China, Germany, Britain and the Netherlands are among a group of at least 14 member states who oppose the measures, diplomats told Reuters during a survey of countries' positions.

France and Italy are meanwhile leading a small group of countries who say De Gucht is right to go ahead with sanctions.

The vote underscores the division in the European Union on how to deal with China at a time when the bloc needs Beijing to buy its goods but accuses its second largest trading partner of undercutting EU companies with subsidized exports.

(Reporting by Luke Baker, Ethan Bilby, Robin Emmott and Phil Blenkinsop; editing by Mike Collett-White)

Noticia que hace que esta otra no nos extrañe nada:

Netherlands opposes EU duties on Chinese solar panels: FM - Xinhua | English.news.cn

Netherlands opposes EU duties on Chinese solar panels: FM

BEIJING, June 11 (Xinhua) -- The Netherlands is opposed to the European Union's (EU) decision to slap provisional anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar panels, Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs Frans Timmermans said here on Tuesday.

Timmermans made the remarks during the talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing.

"The European Commission's decision to impose provisional duties on solar panels from China goes against the principle of free trade and the Netherlands is firmly opposed to it," said the visiting Dutch foreign minister, quoted by a news release from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

On Monday, Timmermans told reporters that the Dutch government, like the German government, truly believes that there should be no confrontation between the EU and China on the issue of solar panels.

"I think we should come and find a compromise here. We have been urging the European Commission to try carefully here. There are more things at stake than just one issue in the long-term relationship between the EU and China," he said on Monday shortly before his departure to China.

During Tuesday's talks, Wang said he appreciates the Dutch government's stance and hopes that the Netherlands will continue working for dialogue between the EU and China on the matter.

Timmermans also congratulated the Chinese side on the successful launch of the Shenzhou-10 spacecraft on Tuesday, adding that the Netherlands is ready to boost cooperation with China in various areas, especially on sustainable development, to forge a future-oriented relationship between the two countries.

Hailing the smooth development of the bilateral ties in recent years, Wang said China looks forward to a more matured and stable relationship with the Netherlands based on mutual respect and win-win reciprocity, and new achievements of cooperation in urbanization, energy saving and environmental protection, new energy and other areas.

After the talks, the two foreign ministers exchanged diplomatic notes regarding the establishment of consulates in China's Chongqing and the Netherlands' Willemstad.

Veamos que tiene que decir sobre todo esto la clase media de la industria pv europea. Aviso: google tranlator inside

PV firms voice antiestéticars over SolarWorld’s China battle -Recharge News

IBC Solar: requested waiver of punitive tariffs
A statement by Udo Möhrstedt, founder and CEO of IBC Solar AG, the solar Customs decision by the EU Commission (see also ee news.ch from >> 5.6.13):

"The EU Commission strengthens the protective tariffs on Chinese solar trade dispute between the EU and China. This is the wrong way, because no one is helped with protectionism.

With its recent decision to stagger the provisional safeguard duties, the Commission creates even more uncertainty for the markets and thus deprives the company planning. For now is to wait until August the economy, which environment actually apply.
Therefore, it is imperative that now the EU Member States play a stronger role. For the imposition of provisional duties, the EU Commission was responsible. Contrast, the EU Member States decide on the definitive duties. Here, the Commission has no majority for their hard line. So now have to take on the Member States and end the trade dispute quickly. We need more, not less market.

IBC Solar relies on the negotiations between the EU and China, where the goal is a win-win situation for all involved. For this purpose, it would make sense for the EU to focus on improved market access in China. Because there are still many barriers that could be removed. Instead of protective tariffs, we must come to mandatory regulations, such as the Chinese market could be opened for the European economy. This would all help. "

¿que dicen los malvados ejpeculadores, cual es su niña bonita? Extrayendo de:

On Solar Wars, Even Germany Pro-China - Forbes

They said the temporary tariff was the only means to get China to come to the table. ”The imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties by the Commission is legally essential to start negotiations,” E.U. ProSun said in a statement. “Negotiations with China would be worthless without this leverage. Without the duties, China would not have any reason to offer to negotiate.”

On news that Germany was against higher tariffs, SolarWorld shares fell 8.1% in Frankfurt and are now in penny share territory. China solar shares didn’t do much better, with JA Solar down 6.14% Friday and Trina Solar down 5.5%.

Over the last five days, the market has been betting on a China victory. SolarWorld shares are up 7.24%. But JA’s shares are up 75.18%. Over the last 12 months, investors who had the guts to hold saw their initial investment skyrocket by 715.5% while SunWorld shares fell 50%.

jorobar con Forbes, ¿SunWorld? ¿y eso que eh? Pues parece que es una errata y que a lo que se refiere es a a SolarWorld, SolarWorld es el pez rellenito de la industria solar alemana, que se puso a la cabeza de las empresas que solicitaron el inicio de la investigacion que bola de nieve mediante, ha acabado en el punto en el que estamos hoy:Empresa metida a tope en el mercado eeuu y con minima implantacion en China, por cierto

¿Y Alemania que opina de esto?

Germany meets with China to end solar energy trade disputes

Germany meets with China to end solar energy trade disputes
BY TAMI HOOD – JUNE 10, 2013

China and the European Union have been embroiled in trade disputes concerning solar energy recently. The trade disputes erupted when Chinese solar panel manufacturers began to flood the European market with low-cost products. The arrival of these products helped significantly reduce the cost of solar energy systems throughout the region, but also forced some European manufacturers out of business due to their inability to provide solar panels that were as inexpensive as those coming from China.

German officials meet with Chinese officials to find solutions to trade issues

Both the European Union and China consider the trade dispute to be problematic to the solar energy market and have been working to resolve the issue effectively. This week, Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel, met with the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, in order to put an end to the problematic trade disputes. Both parties have hopes that ending these disputes may prove beneficial to the solar energy market and open up new trade opportunities throughout Europe and Asia.

Solar energy market may suffer from continued impact of disputes

Germany is working to ensure that import duties, essentially taxes levied against foreign goods, do not become a permanent part of the relationship between China and the European Union. Germany is considered a leader in the solar energy field and is well attuned to the trends that exist in the market. The inexpensive solar panels that have been coming from Chinese manufacturers have proven to be a boon that has supercharged the adoption of solar energy among consumers and businesses alike. Germany is keen to see Chinese manufacturers continue to bring their solar panels to the European market, but also wants to see European manufacturers have the opportunity to perform as well.

China works to reform native solar energy industry

China has been working to reform its native solar energy industry in an attempt to show its resolve to put an end to the ongoing trade disputes with the European Union. Part of this reform involves penalizing some of the country’s largest, but least successful solar panel manufacturers. Small companies, however, are receiving strong support from the Central Government.

---------- Post added 11-jun-2013 at 19:26 ----------

Señor Serpiente, gracias mil por este acogedor espacio.

Felicidades en su año, por cierto.

Bien, del anterior hilo quiero rescatar una de las opiniones vertidas por Ambrosio Pierce Pritchards. La cosa era mas o menos: "como cualquiera que haya visitado China y viera las estaciones de tren en ciudades Tier III que hacen palidecer a la estacion de Waterloo"

Yo he visitado China y la verdad es que estaciones de tren en ciudades Tier II (contando con que Tier I son Beijing, Shanghai y Guangzhou) mas que a Londres, me han recordado a Burgos circa 1953. Me chirria bastante este discurso de que a China le sobran infraestructuras.

No voy a poner fotos de las estaciones, voy a poner mapas de metro.

Nanjing, 8 millones de habitantes

Hangzhou, 8 millones 700 mil habitantes

Suzhou 10 millones de habitantes

Chengdu 11 millones de habitantes

 

[dick jones]

Creo que este es el sitio perfecto para soltar el tochaco.

OpEdNews - Article: Pipelineistan and the New Silk Road(s)

Pipelineistan and the New Silk Road(s)

This is a version of a paper presented this week at the annual conference of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore.

SINGAPORE -- Ask Western elites -- oh, those were the days, in the 17th century, when the rise of European sea powers led to the collapse of the caravan trade and the end of the Silk Road as Europe found a cheaper -- and safer -- way of trading between East and West.

Now, centuries after Tang armies establishing nodes all over Central Asia as far as Khorasan in northeast Iran, the 21st century Silk Road(s) are back. The camels now wear iPads, with the Persian Gulf as a high-tech caravanserai.

Si chou zhi lu ("Silk Road" in Mandarin). What's in a name? Trouble. A lot of trouble. At least if you ask the Pentagon, which places most of these roads -- from the Persian Gulf to Central Asia and even the South China Sea -- smack in the middle of its famous "arc of instability." In parallel, in rising Eastern latitudes, it's Dream Team time: and the name of the game is Eurasian integration.

Who's the real Iron Man in this picture? It has to be Beijing Man, expanding his economy at a dizzying pace, securing all the resources he needs -- not only oil and gas but by being the world's largest consumer of aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, zinc, tin, iron ore -- and breathlessly moving global power tectonic plates.

So no wonder Beijing is appalled by the carnage/civil war forced upon Syria by foreign actors; that's bad for business. The PRC has historically viewed Syria as a ning jiu li -- a cohesive force in the Arab world -- in many aspects the epicenter of the Arab world, and much more progressive, socially, than the Persian Gulf. And while Beijing always praised Syria's stability, the Syrian establishment had been in thrall to China's economic miracle.

When the saints go marchin' in

What we are experiencing now could be described as The Long March West (from the point of view of Beijing) versus The Short March East, as in Pivoting to Asia (from the point of view of Washington).

But it's not pivoting in the sense of the best the US has to offer -- the university-based research system absorbing talent from all over; the drive to dare, to risk, to take a second chance; that vortex of invention -- new companies, new industries, new products.

In this vast chessboard where the complex, intertwined geo-economic competition known as the New Great Game in Eurasia is being played, both kings are easy to identify: Pipelineistan, and the multiple intersections of the 21st century Silk Road. Call them the new iron and steel Silk Roads.

Across this immense Eurasian grid, speed trumps institutional politics. Nobody -- from the European Union to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) -- is on top of all that's going on; we would need a 4D version of the pipeline map room at Gazprom's headquarters in Moscow, a Star Wars version of the London Underground map.

What we can do is set out on a lightning quick road trip. Starting with Turkey, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Group of 20 member -- keen to bill itself as the energy crossroads for Caspian oil, Iraqi oil, and now Kurdistan oil in northern Iraq.

Turkey has gone totally New Silk Road. Last month, it officially became a dialogue partner of the SCO. Why dream of entering a sinking EU? No. Better reinforce a political and trading partnership with Moscow and Beijing -- not to mention the Central Asian "stans."

Now that's certainly a more sound application of Foreign Minister Davotuglu's "strategic depth" than that muddled "logistical support" for regime change in Syria.

Then there's the Southeast Anatolia Project, and the Ataturk Dam -- not very far, by the way, from the Syrian border. The Euphrates river dam system -- planned in the 1970s -- is also propelling Turkey as a great power in the Arab Middle East. Inescapable, when you can divert as much as 90% of Iraq's and 40% of Syria's water power.

But only Iran can enable Turkey to fulfill its core strategic goal -- as in the prime energy crossroads from East to West -- because that would miccionan Turkey as the prime mover of oil and gas from Iran to Europe. If or when that happens, Turkey will be way more important than just a land bridge. Turkey and Iran may be competitors but more than ever they need to be allies.

Most of all what happens in Iran and to Iran will determine which way the wind will blow in Eurasia. Iran strategically straddles Mesopotamia, Anatolia, the Caucasus, the Caspian Sea, Central and South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Arabian Sea. Iran dominates the Persian Gulf -- from the Shatt al Arab to the Strait of Hormuz. Location, population, energy wealth: the absolute key to Southwest Asia. Ask Dick Cheney; no wonder for Washington this has always been the Great Prize.

Pipelineistan -- from a Western point of view -- has always carried an obsessive theme; how to bypass both Russia and Iran. So inevitably Pipelineistan explains a great deal about why Syria is being destroyed. Take the agreement for the US$10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline that was signed in July 2012. This crucial Pipelineistan node will export gas from the South Pars field in Iran (the largest in the world, shared with Qatar), through Iraq, towards Syria, with a possible extension to Lebanon, with certified customers in Western Europe. It's what our friends in Beijing describe as a "win-win" situation.

But not for -- guess who? -- Turkey and Qatar. Qatar wants a rival pipeline from its North field (contiguous with Iran's South Pars field), through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and finally Turkey. Final destination: once again, Western Europe.

In terms of bypassing both Iran and Russia, the Qatari pipeline totally fits the bill, while with the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, the export route may originate nowhere else than in Tartus, the Syrian port in the Eastern Mediterranean that hosts the Russian navy. And Gazprom would certainly be part of the whole picture, from investment to distribution.

Go West, young Han

Non-stop movement in Pipelineistan, a railway frenzy, a network of underground fiber-optic cables. As far as Beijing is concerned, does it need to behave as a neo-colonial power, like Europe in the past? Of course not. And unlike the US, Beijing sports no ideology. No Western liberal democracy as Promised Land. No "moral progress" in geopolitics. No missionary drive. They just buy their way in.

Thus those Himalayas of new geopolitical "facts on the ground" all across Eurasia -- from deep-water ports in Myanmar to special economic zones in North Korea.

We may already glimpse the contours of a new Eurasian land bridge -- including, for instance, the integration of Central Asia with Xinjiang as well as a southern Silk Road branching through Indochina, linking China to Thailand. Thus the emergence of Kunming as a crack Chinese hub for an immense sub-region of Eurasia. We may interpret some of it as China Going West -- a much more refined expansion of the original 1999 Go West campaign, which centered on Xinjiang. And we're not even talking about a Chinese trade-fueled economic renaissance of the Russian Far East.

China will be involved in the building of a high-speed railway line in Iran. And then there's China's Af-Pak vision: a maze of roads and pipelines connected to Indian Ocean ports linked with Central Asian roads connecting Xinjiang with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan.

Afghanistan, India and Iran also plan to build a new Southern Silk Road, centered on Chabahar port in southeast Iran.

Eventually, Pakistan is bound to become a node of Greater China. The crucial game will be played in the Arabian Sea port of Gwadar. Beijing bets on Gwadar as a key transshipment hub linking it to Central Asia and the Gulf. Both ports - Chabahar and Gwadar -- are key pawns in the New Great Game in Eurasia and also happen to be at the heart of Pipelineistan.

The Iran-Pakistan (IP) pipeline will go through Gwadar -- with the distinct possibility of a Chinese-built extension all the way to Xinjiang. Gwadar might also become a terminal in case the ultimate Pipelineistan soap opera -- the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline -- is ever built. We all know it won't.

Then there's the Russia-China strategic partnership. Finally Beijing and Moscow agreed on the delivery of 38 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas per year to China starting in 2015. That's Moscow helping Beijing to accomplish a key national security goal; the simultaneous escape from Hormuz and Malacca -- not to mention a big help for China to develop its landlocked provinces.

Obviously China needs a powerful navy; 85% of Chinese imports arrive by the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Then there's all that oil and gas to be exploited across the South China Sea -- which could become a sort of mini-Persian Gulf.

So the first step towards a Greater China would be to -- peacefully -- engage the whole of the South China Sea and Southeast Asia. Then to adequately protect the sea routes to the Middle East across the Indian Ocean, through which China receives oil from Angola, Sudan and Nigeria, iron ore from mines in Zambia and Gabon, copper and cobalt from mines in Democratic Republic of Congo. But more than anything China will privilege a steady network of energy supply from Myanmar, Russia, Central Asia and Iran.

Hillary's 3 am nightmare

Faced with this Eurasian integration frenzy, the US does appear like an island on the other side of the world. The US counter-strategy to all the action in Eurasia has been to designate the Indian Ocean as the new, global strategic center of gravity; that's the essence of the Obama administration's "pivoting to Asia." For the White House/Pentagon, who controls this strategic center, in theory, controls Eurasia; but if you read the fine print, rather controls Chinese energy imports from the Persian Gulf and Africa -- as well as the developing South-South economic axis between China and Africa, not to mention interferes in the free-trade area between China and ASEAN.

Here we find the Obama administration's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) drive -- that collection of shady free trade agreements shaped by 600 "secret" US corporate advisers currently being negotiated with the Pacific Rim, including Australia, New Zealand and ASEAN members Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.

That may be a cool deal, for instance, to Big Pharma -- smashing access to cheap generic medications in the developing world. It will be a wet dream for Wall Street finance capital gangsters -- because it will allow a derivative fun-fest and an orgy of currency speculation. It will be a sort of financial Shock and Awe over Asia -- once more with US big businesses telling governments it's our way or the highway. We may also call it the economic arm of the Obama administration's pivoting.

For a time, it seemed that Hillary Clinton had brushed up on Ancient Persia, Alexander the Great, the Mongols, Mughals, and Sikhs, and "saw the light" in Afghanistan; that's when she came up with a Washington vision of a New Silk Road (road, rail, pipelines) running through Afghanistan.

Maybe Hillary had a 3 am nightmare about the Iranian Eastern Corridor -- built by India in 2008, from Chabahar to the Afghan border, roughly 200 km, and then connecting with the Zaranj-Delaram highway (also built by India) in Nimruz, in western Afghanistan, and further with the Afghan Ring Road. New Delhi, Tehran, and Kabul have planned a railway line along the entire route to facilitate trade -- especially Afghan mineral wealth -- to and from Central Asia.

So here we have India getting huge strategic leverage, not to mention exploring part of that $3 trillion in Afghan mineral wealth alongside China; and Afghanistan finding an access to the sea, bypassing the Pakistani grip, and once again configuring Iran as the privileged Silk Road in and out of Central Asia.

Add to Pipelineistan the Economic Cooperation Organization freight railway Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad, already carrying $20 billion in goods a year -- and counting.

The lesson here? No matter Washington's obsession in isolating Iran, India -- as well as Turkey -- not to mention China and Russia, would always be betting on Asian integration.

Washington's obsession with isolating Iran led, for instance, to the Bill Clinton administration embracing the Taliban in the 1990s in the hope of building TAPI. Instead of that chimera -- TAPI -- or that other expensive soap opera, Nabucco -- gas from the Caspian shipped through the Caucasus to Turkey -- Iran is the real deal to carry Turkmenistan's gas to Europe.

Talk about the Asian energy security grid; all exports from gas republic Turkmenistan already go to Iran, China and Russia. And Iran and Kazakhstan are also linked by rail and pipeline -- meaning Kazakhstan has a direct access to the Persian Gulf.

We all know by now how the "pivoting" amows what has been the US's strategic target in Central Asia since the first Clinton administration; to interfere in Pipelineistan not as much in terms of diversifying sources of energy for the West, but in preventing strategic victories for Russia, China and Iran.

Washington has had its own New Silk Road ideas, Hillary-style, linking Central to South Asia. None of them incorporate Iran. The only US Silk Road so far has been the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) -- that logistical/military marathon snaking across Central Asia with -- what else -- a narrow military purpose, so the US and NATO could resupply their spectacular failure in Afghanistan bypassing "unreliable" Pakistan.

So the Big Picture, long term, indicates relentless Chinese expansion westwards -- based on trade -- versus a US strategy that is essentially military. What is certain is that a great escape from the Atlanticist-dominated routes of trade, commerce and finance has been on for quite some time. And the New Silk Road(s) will be built by emerging Asia -- and not by a antiestéticarful, declining West.

 

[JesseJames]

Pillo rollito.

 

[vil.]

La verdad es que no soy muy capaz de ponerme de acuerdo conmigo mismo con respeto del momento en que se haya China si la comparo con la situación española... ¿estará en nuestro 2006, 2007, 2008 o estará más bien ya en el 2009?, es decir este 2013 en China a qué año de España correspondería...

El problema es que las cifras Chinas son tan extremadamente extrañas y extravagantes que todo depende de lo que leas...

La realidad en todo caso va a irse viendo en la conflictividad social, pues con salarios tan extremadamente bajos, coberturas sociales casi inexistentes y una inflación en subida libre las situaciones se pueden hacer extremas, especialmente en las ciudades... el campo vive probablemente y de manera harto contradictoria un pequeño amanecer, esto tiene mucho que ver con el pasado de ese mismo escenario, pues eran quienes financiaban mayormente la producción china, ya con mano de obra, ya con productos alimentarios superbaratos...

En todo caso yo ya dije que sería un acontecimiento financiero, el estallido de algún escándalo financiero, lo que haría saltar la situación por los aires... pero está claro que la capacidad de intervención y manipulación en China de su gobierno es tan amplia que mantendrán esas situaciones bloqueadas hasta que no quede otra...

Por tanto analizar el momento de China es realmente muy complicado, pero es realmente muy relevante, pues de esa situación pende casi el mundo entero... hoy por hoy su economía es un elefante hibernando desde hace meses en una cacharrería; cuando despierte su hambre va a hacer temblar el mundo... dado además que los elefantes no hibernan y a este se le ha mantenido con suero y bajo anestesia... en fin...

¿2015?... esa fecha... ese año... en fin, no sé pero yo empezaría a preocuparme mucho si fuese chino y viviese en ese país de ese año, de esas fechas... para mí personalmente es el límite en último extremo que China podrá mantener contenida su realidad, pero si estalla antes ese año no será mejor, pues entonces ese año sería una desolación (cuidadín con esto)... en todo caso el 2015 es una fecha dramática para China, de eso no tengo dudas...

 

[dick jones]

¿donde estan los yuanes? :fiufiu::fiufiu::fiufiu:

China Debt Sale Fails for First Time in 23 Months on Cash Crunch - Bloomberg

China Debt Sale Fails for First Time in 23 Months on Cash Crunch
By Bloomberg News - Jun 14, 2013 10:21 AM GMT+0200

China’s Finance Ministry failed to sell all of the debt offered at an auction for the first time in 23 months owing to a cash squeeze that threatens to exacerbate a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
The ministry sold 9.53 billion yuan ($1.55 billion) of 273-day bills, less than the 15 billion yuan target, according to two traders at finance companies that participate in the auctions. Agricultural Development Bank of China Co. raised 11.51 billion yuan in a sale of six-month bills last week, less than its 20 billion yuan goal.
Banks are hoarding money to meet quarter-end capital requirements at the same time as capital inflows are easing amid a worsening economic outlook and speculation the Federal Reserve will rein in monetary stimulus. The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of interbank funding availability, has more than doubled in the past month and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of shares slid today for a record 12th day in Hong Kong.
“The cash crunch is curbing demand for bonds,” said Chen Ying, a fixed-income analyst at Sealand Securities Co. in Shenzhen. “The crunch may persist if the central bank doesn’t come out to inject more capital into the financial system. If it lasts longer, it may affect issuance of both government and corporate bonds.”
The average yield at today’s bill sale was 3.76 percent, said the traders, who asked not to be identified. That compares with a 3.14 percent rate yesterday for similar-maturity existing securities, according to data compiled by Chinabond, the nation’s biggest debt-clearing house. The ministry’s last failed auction was a sale of 182-day bills in July 2011.
Outlook Dims
The cash shortage comes after China’s economic expansion held below 8 percent for the past four quarters, the first time that has happened in at least 20 years. Morgan Stanley, UBS AG and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc are among at least eight global banks and brokerages that cut 2013 growth estimates for the nation this week. The World Bank slashed its forecast to 7.7 percent from 8.4 percent, a June 12 report showed.
The People’s Bank of China added a net 92 billion yuan to the financial system this week, down from 160 billion yuan in the five days through June 7, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The monetary authority refrained yesterday from draining cash for the first time in three months as money markets reopened after a three-day holiday. The last time it used reverse-repurchase agreements to inject funds was Feb. 7.
“If the central bank doesn’t conduct reverse-repurchase agreements or short-term liquidity operations to inject capital, cash supply will stay tight for the rest of the month,” said Cheng Qingsheng, a bond analyst at Evergrowing Bank Co. in Shanghai.
Swap Rate
The one-year interest-rate swap, the fixed cost needed to receive the floating seven-day repurchase rate, climbed 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point, to 3.79 percent as of 4:10 p.m. in Shanghai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 3.85 percent, the highest level since September 2011.
Yuan positions at local lenders accumulated from sales of foreign exchange, an indication of capital flows into China, rose 66.86 billion yuan in May, the central bank reported today. That is the smallest gain since November.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange last month stepped up scrutiny of flows to prevent speculative funds from entering the country disguised as trade payments. Cash is also flowing out of developing nations as investors bet the Fed will scale back quantitative easing, a policy that spurred demand for riskier assets. Investors pulled $5.8 billion from emerging-market equity funds in the week ended June 12, Citigroup Inc. reported today, citing EPFR Global data.
Repo Rate
The yuan rose less than 0.1 percent today and this month to 6.1316 per dollar in Shanghai. It strengthened 1.5 percent in the January-May period and has retreated 0.2 percent since reaching a 19-year high of 6.1210 on May 27.
The seven-day repo rate jumped 51 basis points today to 6.90 percent, a weighted average by the National Interbank Funding Center shows. The yield on the 2.62 percent government bond due April 2014 climbed eight basis points to 3.24 percent.
“We are still bearish on the liquidity outlook because banks will turn more cautious toward the end of June due to the need to fulfill loan-to-deposit requirements and we will also head into another tax payment season in July,” said Pin Ru Tan, an interest-rate strategist at HSBC Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong.

Central Bank Liquidity Moves Set Cautious Tone -

Central Bank Liquidity Moves Set Cautious Tone
Analyst at BOCOM International says liquidity in the interbank market in recent days tightest since October 2007
By staff reporters Li Yuqian and Fu Tao

(Beijing) – The central bank injected a net 252 billion yuan into the market in June, but reference interest rates in the interbank market remained high. Analysts predict tighter liquidity ahead.
The People's Bank of China did not take any open market operations on June 13. The seven-day repurchase rate in the interbank market rose to 6.38 percent, and the one-month and three-month varieties of the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) increased to 6.962 percent and 5.205 percent, up by 15.1 and 6 basis points respectively from the previous day.
Liquidity in the interbank market during the past few days has been the tightest since October 2007, said Hong Hao, managing director of BOCOM International in a recent commentary.
This, coupled, with poorly-performing stock markets this week offers a glimpse into a steep rise of risks which could amow, said Hong. Even if the central bank decides to cut interest rates right now, the risks are not likely to be averted, he added.
Absent a fundamental change to policy direction, the market may face more severe liquidity challenges as it draws closer to the end of the second quarter, said an expert cited by Reuters.
Shenyin & Wanguo Securities also said in a recent research report that the situation is not going to improve any time soon. Liquidity could remain tight until mid-to-late July, the report said.
Analysts attributed the shortage of liquidity in the interbank market to recent declines in the amount of yuan banks spent acquiring foreign exchanges from companies and individuals.
Banks are putting less money into the market from acquiring forex partly because investors have started pulling capital out of emerging markets including China in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve exiting its quantitative easing scheme, said Ying Lanshu, analyst at Shanghai Securities.
The forex regulator's move in May to combat a previous surge in hot money inflows also caused less forex to be converted into yuan at banks, said Huatai Securities analyst Guo Chunyan.
As of May 31, the year-on-year growth rate of M2, a money supply gauge, reached 15.8 percent, higher than the government's target of 13 percent for this year.

 

[Serpiente_Plyskeen]

Pues sí, la subasta fallida empieza a levantar resquemores:
China debt auction failure raises liquidity antiestéticars - FT.com

Por cierto, en cuanto al caso Snowden, al principio China parecía que no iba a reaccionar:
In first response to Snowden, China skirts direct comment | Reuters
Pero ahora está pidiendo explicaciones:
China’s Media Demand U.S. Explain Hacking Exposed by Snowden

Y por cierto, en Hong Kong siguen poniendo a prueba cuánta libertad de expresión se le permite a la región:
Flag-burning convictions challenge HK freedom of expression | Asia News – Politics, Media, Education | Asian Correspondent

Al final, como comenta Reuters, igual la mejor opción es retirar inversiones en Asia cagando baquetas:
Analysis: Asia's ticking time bonds; time to cut and run? | Reuters

Edito y añado el artículo recién publicado de Ambrosio:
China braces for capital flight and debt stress as Fed tightens - Telegraph

China braces for capital flight and debt stress as Fed tightens

China appears increasingly worried that monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve could trigger capital flight from the People’s Republic and set off a Chinese corporate debt crisis.

There have been signs of serious stress in China’s interbank lending markets, with short-term SHIBOR rates spiking violently. Photo: Alamy

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
1:50PM BST 14 Jun 2013

A front-page editorial on Friday in China Securities Journal - an arm of the regulatory authorities - warned that capital inflows have slowed sharply and may have begun to reverse as investors grow wary of emerging markets. “China will face large-scale capital outflows if there is an exit from quantitative easing and the dollar strengthens.” it wrote.

The journal said foreign exodus from Chinese equity funds were the highest since early 2008 in the week up to June 5, and the withdrawal Hong Kong funds were the most in a decade.

It also warned that total credit in Chinese financial system may have reached 221pc of GDP, jumping almost eightfold over the last decade. Companies will have to fork out $1 trillion in interest payments alone this year. “Chinese corporate debt burdens are much higher than those of other economies and much of the liquidity is being used to repay debt and not to finance output,” it said.

Source: World Bank; International Debt Statistics; World Development Indicators; IMF IFS (orange bars indicate low income countries)

There have been signs of serious stress in China’s interbank lending markets, with short-term SHIBOR rates spiking violently. Bank Everbright missed an interbank payment last week in a technical default.

Shibor one-week trend.

Shibor one-month trend.

“Liquidity conditions have tightened severely due to the crackdown on shadow banking activities,” said Zhiwei Zhang from Nomura. “We believe the series of policy tightening measures in the past three months have reached critical mass, such that deleveraging in the banking sector is happening. Liquidity tightening can be very damaging to a highly leveraged economy,” he said, warning that local government finance vehicles may have trouble rolling over debts.

China Securities Journal hinted that the authorities antiestéticar they have gone too far in their efforts to curb property speculation and off-books lending, and may have to turn the liquidity spigot back on.

“There is room to cut interest rates and the reserve ratio in the second half. A rate cut can help ease company debt burdens. A reserve cut can help cushion the monetary environment,” it said. The central bank has already cut the reserve ratio requirement (RRR) to 20pc for big banks, but this could go much lower.

Premier Li Keqiang has until now vowed to press ahead with loan curbs, insisting that the economy is strong enough to withstand the strain. The editorial is a clear sign that the Communist Party is preparing a volte-face, discovering that it is harder to manage a calibrated soft-landing than originally assumed.

Citigroup warned in a new report that surging SHIBOR rates will cascade through the banks and damage growth later this year, with knock-on effects for commodity prices and emerging markets worldwide.

 

[Ricardom]

Hola a todos, pego a continuación la nota primigenia que dio origen a este hilo. Yo solo quería plantear un debate entre una economía planificada por el estado o la dirigida por los bancos a través de los partidos políticos y sus grandes medios de comunicación y en el cual los ciudadanos somos simples marionetas de la tele, la radio o sus periódicos y los periodistas son los dioses que nos muestran el mundo iluminándolo con sus luces y guiándonos de la mano.
Eso es todo. Gracias a todos por los ricos aportes.

Un pedido a los administradores: me gustaría que debajo de mi nombre figurara: PPSOE la misma hez es. Gracias y a por ellos.



¿Cual de las modalidades económicas será mejor para encarar la crisis financiera? ¿La china o la estadounidense?

Tras el estallido de la crisis financiera global, los gobiernos de diversos países han tomado medidas para aliviar los resultados dañinos o librarse del atolladero cuanto antes. Hasta el momento, muchos especialistas han comenzado a abordar el tema sobre las distintas modalidades económicas, de las cuales la china ha sido considerada diferente de aquella de EEUU y otros países occidentales. E incluso, algunos economistas han afirmado que las dos modalidades económicas aplicadas por China y EEUU respectivamente han comenzado la competencia.

Los expertos prestan atención en los tres aspectos de la modalidad china. Primero, la capacidad de defensa de la modalidad china ante la crisis financiera. La actual crisis ha afectado a todas las economías en diferente grado. Sin embargo, China ha demostrado su capacidad bastante alta de resistencia a la crisis en comparación con las occidentales y con las de Japón y otras cuatro economías asiáticas. Esto se debe a la modalidad de desarrollo económico, típica de China, desde el inicio de su reforma y apertura hacia el mundo exterior.

Segundo, China ha tomado una serie de medidas propias. Al igual que otros países, China ha tomado una serie de medidas para enfrentarse a la crisis. Aparentemente, no se ven diferencias esenciales de las medidas tomadas por el Occidente, pero las medidas chinas han resultado más efectivas que las occidentales. Cuando las economías occidentales están entrando en la etapa de aumento negativo, están apareciendo indicios de recuperación económica en China. Actualmente, muy pocos países occidentales se han mostrado tan opitimistas como China por el futuro desarrollo económico.

La actitud optimista y confianza chinas se basan sobre fundamentos objetivos. Al hacer frente a la crisis, a los gobiernos de EEUU y otros países occidentales solo les queda recurrir a la palanca financiera, en vez de la económica. El gobierno chino cuenta con los dos medios y puede poner en juego su palanca económica además de la financiera mediante las poderosas entidades estatales. Por otra parte, los gobiernos de EEUU y Occidente son deficitarios en contraste con el gobierno chino cuya economía evoluciona sin contratiempos. Se puede afimar que el chino es uno de los pocos gobiernos del mundo con suficientes recursos financieros.

Tercero, China desempeñara su rol en el futuro orden financiero internacional. Al igual que las anteriores, la actual crisis conducirá a restablecer el sistema económico y financiero. En el pasado, el mundo occidental ha sido el fundador del sistema y los demás países no han tenido otra opción que aceptarlo. En el futuro proceso de restablecimiento del orden económico y financiero, es imposible que el Occidente monopolice lo todo, y es inevitable que las economías emergentes incluidas China, India, Brasil y Rusia, participarán en el restablecimiento del nuevo sistema. China que cuenta con una economía de gran margen desempeñará importante rol. El mundo desea informarse de la actitud china hacia el futuro orden y su posición en el futuro sistema.

Actualmente, un creciente número de personas tiene mucho interés por la modalidad china. No pocos países en vías de desarrollo intentan aprender de la modalidad china, y por su parte los países desarrollados están preocupados de la posible reemplazo de la modalidad occidental por la china. Entonces es importante sintetizar la modalidad china que se refleja en los aspectos político, económico y social. Hay expertos creen que se puede calificar la modalidad china como una formalidad económica compuesta o mixta. Por el término “mixto”, se entiende la modalidad de múltiples sistemas de propiedad, o mejor dicho, un equilibrio entre distintas formas de propiedad. También necesitan el equilibrio entre la apertura al exterior y la demanda interna y el equilibrio entre las funciones del gobierno y del mercado en la esfera económica.

En la actual crisis, la modalidad de economía de mercado socialista china ha mostrado su superioridad, y también algunos puntos vulnerables. La modalidad china está en el proceso de desarrollo. Las lecciones en la crisis financiera serán favorables para el desarrollo de la modalidad.

Un grupo de estudiosos chinos y extranjeros están intercambiando opiniones sobre la posibilidad de mejorar la modalidad china para promover el crecimiento económico del país. algunos de ellos creen que la clave de mejorar la modalidad china consiste en establecer el sistema social mediante la reforma social para garantizar el desarrollo sostenible de la economía china.

La crisis financiera es realmente una oportunidad para realizar la reforma social y establecer el sistema social. China necesita perfeccionar continuamente la modalidad de desarrollo, y lo más importante consiste en la ampliación de la demanda interna y establecer una sociedad de consumo. Sin lugar a dudas, en todos los países, la reforma social y el establecimiento del sistema social es un trabajo arduo. Un buen sistema social básico constituye el fundamento necesario para garantizar el satisfactorio desarrollo del mercado y la estabilidad social. China tiene mucho trabajo que hacer para alcanzarlo.

 

[Namreir]

Serpiente, no estaras sugiriendo por casualidad que los chinos se estan planteando devaluar el yuan y dejar de comprar cochecitos europeos?

 

[Janus]

China es el motivo del desplome general de las materias primas y de los precios del carbón en USA.

La previsible retirada de estímulos monetarios en USA es el motivo de que el oro y la plata estén en pleno repliegue. Son el canario de la mina.

Sabiendo entender el momento Minsky de ahora, se puede ganar mucha plata en los mercados.

El dinero pulula de un activo a otro buscando el margen. Siempre hay donde ganar mucho dinero.