La cartera (otra vez) kamikaze a medio plazo

Ojalá algún día tenga seguimiento para pumpear algo así... Y aún mejor, a un illuminati detrás que me diga que tengo que pumpear. Imagina lo bien que deben vivir los perros de Soros roto2

Nah pero en serio, entiendo a la gente que se mete y creo que se puede hacer dinero por ahí. Está barata estadísticamente y tiene el tema de los ratios de los containers para subirla. En valor y en tendencia está bien, pero la directiva es una grandísima guano y creo que eso nadie lo puede negar. He comprado "solo" 50 acciones, ni siquiera la mitad de la pasta que suelo poner a mis primeras entradas de las demás. Si alguien invierte siguiendo la línea de lo que se suele comentar en este hilo que NO compre Navios...

Gordi, que paso en el 2015 en nmm para que bajase tanto ? ampliacion de capital ?

PD :Lo de Ecogreen me recuerda a una minera llamada Aguarica roto2
 
Gordi, que paso en el 2015 en nmm para que bajase tanto ? ampliacion de capital ?
Si, megaampliación. La directiva se endeudó a saco en los buenos tiempos y cuando llegó el ciclo bajo empezaron a palmar pasta y a ampliar para pagar los barquitos. Ahora ya están relativamente limpios y viene el ciclo bueno... pero en vez de acumular pasta para aguantar el siguiente ciclo malo se están volviendo a endeudar para pillar barcos (que no les llegarán hasta dentro de 2 años mínimo por el tiempo que tardan en construirlos).

No han aprendido nada de la situación en el anterior ciclo malo y ahora parece que van a repetir los mismos errores. La directiva es HORRIBLE.

Pero bueno, la empresa ganará más pasta que nunca este año y el que viene por el tema de los ratios de los containers, ahí está el potencial. El riesgo es que los ratios de los containers vuelvan hacia abajo y la empresa vuelva a la misma situación en la que estuvo en el ciclo malo anterior.
 
Si, megaampliación. La directiva se endeudó a saco en los buenos tiempos y cuando llegó el ciclo bajo empezaron a palmar pasta y a ampliar para pagar los barquitos. Ahora ya están relativamente limpios y viene el ciclo bueno... pero en vez de acumular pasta para aguantar el siguiente ciclo malo se están volviendo a endeudar para pillar barcos (que no les llegarán hasta dentro de 2 años mínimo por el tiempo que tardan en construirlos).

No han aprendido nada de la situación en el anterior ciclo malo y ahora parece que van a repetir los mismos errores. La directiva es HORRIBLE.

Pero bueno, la empresa ganará más pasta que nunca este año y el que viene por el tema de los ratios de los containers, ahí está el potencial. El riesgo es que los ratios de los containers vuelvan hacia abajo y la empresa vuelva a la misma situación en la que estuvo en el ciclo malo anterior.

En general esta renovando la flota. Ha vendido algunos containers viejetes y ha pillado nuevos bulk de 2 años de media. Nuevo nuevo creo que solo era 1.

Esta jugando el superciclo de la manera que a ella le sale más rentable que es tirando a crecimiento para llevarse más comisiones.

A nosotros nos vendría mejor una promesa de recompra y dividendos por valor del 50% del FCF anual por ejemplo. De haber tirado por ese camino sería una historia muy diferente.

Sin más, a ver donde estamos dentro de 1 año.
 
Bueno, RESUMEN ANUAL. Por fin.

Primero a lo que viene todo el mundo. Empecé la cartera con 30000 euros justos y no he metido nada más dentro. A día de hoy, mientras escribo este mensaje, el valor liquidativo que me sale en la pantalla de Degiro es de 84464.93 euros. Esto es una revalorización anual del 181,55%. Casi he triplicado.

En el mismo período de tiempo el SP500 ha subido un 30% aproximadamente, el NASDAQ 100 un 50% y el IBEX 35 un 25%.

No hay trampa ni cartón, aquí en el hilo están registrados todos y cada uno de mis movimientos; con fechas de compra y de venta, cantidades de dinero y demás información útil. Nada de abrir hilos para múltiples empresas y upear solo los de las empresas que suben como SPAMILLA2014. Todos los movimientos se pueden comprobar más a fondo yendo por las 173 páginas del hilo, ya que a cada movimiento que hacía lo comentaba en el foro en menos de 10 minutos de haberlo realizado.

Sobre las empresas. Mi cartera tiene 3 grandes secciones: blue chips defensivas de países ex-soviéticos, small caps chinas y Mongolian Mining. Las 3 están repartidas de forma más o menos equitativa.

Las small caps chinas han bajado un poco estos últimos días, pero la tendencia en general sigue la misma que antes (subir moderadamente). La diferencia es que este trimestre lo han hecho con una volatilidad de espanto, pero qué se le va a hacer. No siempre puede subir todo sin hacer ruido. Me estoy planteando vender Medialink y ampliar en otras small caps que me han llamado bastante la atención. Una de ellas será Ecogreen, la niña bonita de @Value . A lo mejor podemos convencerle de que venga al podcast a explicárnosla.


La rotación parcial que hice hacia empresas defensivas de Ucrania y Rusia ha funcionado. En vez de meterse el ostión pronosticado por todo el mundo con la elección de Biden se han mantenido a niveles parecidos a los que ya estaban pre-elecciones. Ninguna de ellas llama especialmente la atención: son empresas defensivas al fin y al cabo. Muchas de ellas están planas o se han marcado subidas moderadas. Muchas de ellas ya tienen un apocalipsis y medio descontado en su cotización, cualquier cosa que sea menos grave que eso acaba beneficiando a la cotización... La excepción es MHP, que ha caído un 15-20% desde mi precio medio de entrada.

Estos últimos 3 meses Mongolian Mining se ha disparado. No hubo catalizador, simplemente un día empezó a subir y en unas semanas se multiplicó por 5 o 6 veces. Las condiciones estaban ahí: el cierre a las importacionesde carbón desde Australia, el nexo ferroviario con China, la subida de los precios del carbón de coque, el hecho que el coque sea para el sector metalúrgico y China esté construyendo infraestructuras sin descanso... Pero hasta noviembre del año pasado que no despertó y hasta enero-febrero que no se disparó. Para que luego digan que el mercado es eficiente... Eso sí, me arrepiento muchísimo de no haber soltado más acciones cuando cotizaba por encima de los 3 HKD. Veía muy claro que la subida era un despropósito cortoplacista y que rebotaría hacia abajo, pero mi rigidez a la hora de establecer precios de venta me hizo quedarme dentro. Esta rigidez me ha ayudado en otras acciones, pero en este caso me ha perjudicado y siendo la empresa que más pesa en la cartera se nota muchísimo. Si hubiera vendido a 3,3 HKD (estuve a punto, tuve una conversación con varios foreros que lo pueden atestiguar) ahora estaríamos hablando de rentabilidades del 220-230%. Los 100000 euros de @502 Bad Gatowey se habrían cumplido roto2

Y bueno, sobre cosas que estaban en la cartera pero que acabé sacando. Muchas eran empresas de los 3 grupos anteriores y ya las he ido explicando a lo largo del hilo, no voy a repetirme ahí. Las mayoría de estas las vendí porque los ratios fundamentales ya no estaban igual de baratos que cuando las había comprado y me apetecía hacer un movimiento hacia algo más defensivo (eso fue a principios de febrero, cuando el mercado estaba maniático y todo se estaba disparando al 15% diario). La excepción ha sido Fly Leasing, que parece que le hacen una OPA. Me alegro por los compradores, Fly era una empresa muy infravalorada e incluso a 17 dólares sigue siendo un chollo.

Para terminar, que no me quiero extender mucho más. Me siento muy orgulloso de como ha ido todo en general. No me esperaba estos rendimientos ni mucho menos. Para ponerlo en contexto, vengo del mundo de la inversión largoplacista, el dinero que había metido en esta cartera era de la OPA que me hicieron a BME en la cartera de largo plazo (era mi posición principal con muchísima diferencia). Meterme en la inversión de medio plazo era un reto para demostrarme a mi mismo qué era capaz de hacer y abrir el hilo era una forma de obligarme a mi mismo a ser constante. No me imaginaba que esto fuera a ir tan bien.

A lo largo del año he aprendido mucho, sobretodo de mi mismo. Una cosa es tener los conocimientos teóricos de invertir a medio plazo, otra cosa muy distinta es hacerlo. Creo que he navegado bien la situación, pese a que ciertas personas (ejem @GOLDGOD ejem @arriba/abajo ejem @Value ejem) a veces me acusen de vago. Que ojo, tienen razón roto2, pero tampoco voy a caer en la trampa de dedicarle 8 horas al día a leerme informes anuales (es un hobby al fin y al cabo) ni a sobreoperar. Prefiero pecar de operar poco a operar mucho, operando poco no regalo tanto dinero al Degiro. Lo mismo sobre estar mirando noticias de informes trimestrales con extremado detalle, entrar sin saber nada de la empresa es irresponsable pero si te estás demasiado tiempo dandole caña a todas las noticias diarias que te encuentras al final te obsesionas con nimiedades.


Por cierto, ya que he citado a esos foreros. LO MEJOR que me ha traído abrir este hilo ha sido la interacción con el foro. Gracias a este hilo no solo he seguido dedicando tiempo a este experimento sino que me ha dado la oportunidad de conocer a personas muy interesantes. Algunos foreros en concreto ya hace tiempo que tengo el privilegio de poder llamarlos amigos. Solo por eso, y por todos los que seguís el hilo (aunque no comentéis o solo me spameeis la bandeja de privados roto2), ha valido la pena. Gracias gente.

Como sigas asi te veo buscando vivienda en Andorra .=D>
 
Yo hice la pole en este hilo mítico, eso ya no me lo quita nadie y se lo contaré a mis descendientes cuando sean mayores. Durante este año he ido de la mano de @gordinflas al principio y de los demás después (@arriba/abajo, @GOLDGOD , @RockLobster , @MagicTaly , @Value , @eDreamer, @502 Bad Gatowey entre muchos) leyendo algunos libros de los que recomendaban, escudriñando entre líneas la personalidad y el estilo de cada uno, admirando su talento y apreciando la generosidad por enseñar y ayudar. Me he sentido muy acompañado por muchos de los que estáis en este hilo en este difícil camino que empecé hace también un año. Y también he aprendido mucho de mí mismo, gracias a la gente de aquí que me ha inspirado, he iniciado nuevos proyectos y me ha cambiado la visión que tenía sobre muchas cosas. Muchas gracias y seguimos adelante.
 
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Yo hice la pole en este hilo mítico, eso ya no me lo quita nadie y se lo contaré a mis descendientes cuando sean mayores. Durante este año he ido de la mano de @gordinflas al principio y de los demás después (@arriba/abajo, @GOLDGOD , @RockLobster , @MagicTaly , @Value , @eDreamer, @502 Bad Gatowey entre muchos) leyendo algunos libros de los que recomendaban, escudriñando entre líneas la personalidad y el estilo de cada uno, admirando su talento y apreciando la generosidad por enseñar y ayudar. Me he sentido muy acompañado por muchos de los que estáis en este hilo en este difícil camino que empecé hace también un año. Y también he aprendido mucho de mí mismo, gracias a la gente de aquí que me ha inspirado, he iniciado nuevos proyectos y me ha cambiado la visión que tenía sobre muchas cosas. Muchas gracias y seguimos adelante.

Yo soy un guano que no tiene ni fruta idea, pero intento aprender y la mecha que ha disparado mi aprendizaje ha sido el ELbichito + este hilo. He ganado dinero y espero en algún momento comentar ideas que puedan hacer que otros también ganen. A seguir!
 
Con respecto a Ecogreen, ¿hay algún análisis de algún usuario? He estado mirando un poco los números y tienen un CapEx brvtal en los últimos dos años. La mayoría parece que es maquinaria (fixed assets) así que mirando hacia adelante se deberían reducir. Tienen una montaña de cash y no mucha deuda, así que pueden tirar de ahí.

Su PER es de 4-5, pero es que respecto al enterprise value (market cap - cash + deuda) salen unos números buenísimos.
 
Con respecto a Ecogreen, ¿hay algún análisis de algún usuario? He estado mirando un poco los números y tienen un CapEx brvtal en los últimos dos años. La mayoría parece que es maquinaria (fixed assets) así que mirando hacia adelante se deberían reducir. Tienen una montaña de cash y no mucha deuda, así que pueden tirar de ahí.

Su PER es de 4-5, pero es que respecto al enterprise value (market cap - cash + deuda) salen unos números buenísimos.

Me van a obligar a debutar en el podcast con ECO GREEN.

Buen ojo tienes, el capex es debido a que están haciendo una fábrica nueva. Tienen dos a día de hoy, la tercera es la nueva y acabaron la primera fase en Q3 de 2020, empezó a operar en periodo de pruebas en Noviembre de 2020 y ya han conseguido el visto bueno para empezar a operar con normalidad a principios de 2021.

Si buceas más a fondo en los números verás que se han dejado buen dinero estos últimos años en la fábrica nueva y aparte en actualizar/mejorar una de las otras dos.

A día de hoy esta a PER 3.x. Han reportado unos beneficios de 0.45HKD en 2020 y cotiza en los 1.60HKD, también han aumentado el dividendo un 19% hasta los 5,7HK cents que pagarán en junio. Han crecido un 15% en beneficios en pleno año de esa época en el 2020 de la que yo le hablo y eso que tuvieron que cerrar 1 mes las fábricas cuando apretó fuerte el ELbichito en china.

Yo espero que los resultados de 2021 H1 sean los mejores de su historia. Lo que pasa que es dificil calcular cuanto van a ganar de la fábrica nueva porque no dan ningún guidance al respecto.

Si tienes cualquier duda pregunta sin problemas.
 
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Mirad... el que domina la empresa es Value, pero a mi me encanta y han sacado unos resultados tremendos. Os prometo un resumen en breve. Me encargo yo y se lo paso a Value para que le dé el OK o añada algo.
Y a ti Goldgod, que eres al igual que yo de los que dan una nueva definición al término agroinversor, te veo comprando te un Fendt vario para desgravar.
 
Los resultados anuales de Henan Jinma ya están colgados en su web, en principio a mi entender la caída de beneficios del 20 respecto al 2019 fue la caída de los precios del carbón y sus derivados en la primera mitad del año. El proyecto de mejora de instalaciones de coque de 1,8 millones de toneladas entrará a funcionar en el tercer trimestre de 2021, así como una planta de tratamiento de aguas residuales de 180 m 3 / h.
Van a aprobar un dividendo de 0,20 yuanes que se abona el 30 de junio.
 
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Gracias, un matiz, está pendiente para la próxima junta

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Los resultados anuales de Henan Jinma ya están colgados en su web, en principio a mi entender la caída de beneficios del 20 respecto al 2019 fue la caída de los precios del carbón y sus derivados en la primera mitad del año. El proyecto de mejora de instalaciones de coque de 1,8 millones de toneladas entrará a funcionar en el tercer trimestre de 2021, así como una planta de tratamiento de aguas residuales de 180 m 3 / h.
Van a aprobar un dividendo de 0,20 yuanes que se abona el 31 de junio.
se sabe cuál es la fecha ex-dividend?
 
se sabe cuál es la fecha ex-dividend?
Traducción de google:
Para tenedores de acciones H de la Compañía
Última hora para alojar el traslado.
documentos para el registro
Viernes 28 de mayo de 2021 a las 16:30
Cierre del registro de miembros
Desde el sábado 29 de mayo de 2021 hasta el jueves,
3 de junio de 2021 (ambos días incluidos)
Grabar fecha
Jueves, 3 de junio de 2021
Fecha de pago final del dividendo
El miércoles 30 de junio de 2021 o antes
Durante el período de cierre anterior, no se registrará ninguna transferencia de acciones H. Para ser elegible para
calificar para el dividendo final, documentos sobre transferencias de Acciones H, acompañados de los
los certificados de acciones deben presentarse para su registro en el Registrador de acciones H de la Compañía,
Computershare Hong Kong Investor Services Limited en las tiendas 1712-1716, piso 17, Hopewell
Center, 183 Queen's Road East, Hong Kong, a más tardar a las 4:30 pm del viernes 28 de mayo de 2021
 
Viendo lo contrarian que es este hilo a las acciones en las que invierte todo el mundo, a lo mejor interesan las últimas posiciones de Burry. GEO creo que la lleva alguien de aquí. Saludos y a seguir dándole duro.

Yo hoy he entrado en Kaspi.

5. CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW)
Value: $6,550,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 2.92%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 18

Corecivic ranks 5th on the list of Michael Burry’s new stock picks. The company operates over 50 correctional and detention facilities. The stock has lost about 23% in value over the last 12 months. In the fourth quarter, Corecivic’s normalized FFO came in at $0.63, beating the consensus of $0.49. The company in the quarter reduced its debt load by $125 million. The stock recently fell after The United States Marshals Services notified that company that it won’t extend its contract for the Ohio correctional center. The news comes after President Biden signed an executive order asking the Justice Department not to renew contracts with private correctional centers.

As of the end of the fourth quarter, there were 18 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database that held stakes in CoreCivic, compared to 19 funds in the third quarter. Arrowstreet Capital, with 2.8 million shares of CXW, is the biggest stakeholder in the company.

4. Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE: TAP)
Value: $6,779,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 3.02%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 39

Michael Burry bought 150,000 new shares of Molson Coors in the fourth quarter, ending the period with a $6.78 million stake in the company. The beverage company is behind several famous brands like Carling, Coors Light, Miller Lite, Molson Canadian and Staropramen. Molson Coors shares are up 19% over the last 12 months. The company posted weak Q4 results as it increases spending on new products. Last year, the company suspended its dividend, but the management now plans to recommend a resumption in dividend payments in the second half of 2021.

As of the end of the fourth quarter, 39 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database of 887 funds held stakes in TAP, compared to 33 funds in the third quarter. Arrowstreet Capital is the biggest stakeholder in the company, with 2.4 million shares, worth $108.6 million.

In their Q3 2020 investor letter, Argosy Investors highlighted a few stocks and Molson Coors Beverage Co (NYSE:TAP) is one of them. Here is what Argosy Investors said:

“I purchased shares of Molson Coors (TAP) during the third quarter, and this mid-tier brewer is valued attractively at less than 8x EBITDA, at the low end of historical multiples.

I do not expect a lot of growth from this investment, but it is challenging to find fairly-priced resilient businesses in the current environment, and if there is one thing I can count on is that people will drink beer, especially during a pandemic. The biggest risk is obviously that they may choose to drink other types of beer, specifically craft beers. While the company’s balance sheet is a little stretched, I believe the company is focused on reducing debt, most noticeably in their decision to suspend their dividend for 2020. I do not believe this investment will provide explosive returns for us, but I believe it is an attractive alternative to cash. The company can pay down significant amounts of debt fairly quickly and deliver reasonable equity returns by doing so.

Additionally, the company recently got into the hard seltzer game, specifically through their Vizzy and Coors Seltzer products. The author took the opportunity to sample these products over the Labor Day holiday, and came away impressed with the decent flavors, and subsequent conversations with millennials and particularly millennial females who had tried the product reflected positive early feedback for these offerings. Finally, Molson Coors announced a partnership with Coca-Cola to develop their Topo Chico hard seltzer product. The hard seltzer category is growing mid-teens percent annually right now, and I believe Molson Coors has enough irons in the fire here to make a decent impact on their top and bottom lines. Any amount of unexpected growth from these products would be a cherry on top to our investment case.”

3. The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO)
Value: $7,488,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 3.33%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 18

Florida-based REIT Geo Group ranks 3rd on the list of Michael Burry’s top new stock picks as his hedge fund Scion Asset Management bought 845,152 shares of the company, worth $7.5 million. Geo Group mainly invests in private prisons and mental health facilities in the U.S. U.K. Europe, Australia and Africa. The company has strong partnerships with governments. As of 2019, over half of the company’s revenue come from its partnership with federal agencies. Last month, the company priced a private offering of $200 million of 6.50% exchangeable senior unsecured notes due 2026 by its wholly-owned subsidiary, GEO Corrections Holdings.

A total of 18 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish GEO at the end of the fourth quarter, up from 12 funds a quarter earlier. Arrowstreet Capital is the biggest stakeholder in the company, with 2.69 million shares, worth $23.8 million.

Miller Value Partners, in their Q4 2020 investor letter, said that The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) was the top detractor in their fourth quarter 2020 results.

Here is what Miller Value Partners has to say about The GEO Group, Inc. in their Q4 2020 investor letter:

“GEO Group (GEO) was the top detractor over the quarter, falling 19.4%. The company reported Q3 revenue of $579.1M (-1% Quarter-over-Quarter (Q/Q)), net operating income of $151.4M (+2% Q/Q), and Earnings Before Income, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization, and Restructuring (EBITDAR) of $112.1M (-1% Q/Q). Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of $0.67 drove 2.0x coverage on the quarterly dividend of $0.34/share (15.4% annualized yield). GEO exited the quarter with cash of $54M and net debt of $2.6Bn, which on TTM EBITDAR of $448.8M implies net leverage of 5.8x. Management lifted Fiscal Year (FY) 20 guidance across the board, including revenue +0.3% to $4.347Bn, Net Operating Income (NOI) +3% to $609M, EBITDAR +4.4% to $429M, and AFFO +5.6% to $2.44/share (28% FCF yield). Additionally, GEO maintained guidance for $100M of debt paydown in 2020 and a minimum of $50M each year moving forward, which coupled with savings from the previously announced reduced dividend will be applied towards debt reduction.”

2. Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC)
Value: $7,545,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 3.36%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 99

Michael Burry joined the 99 hedge funds that are bullish on Wells Fargo in the fourth quarter, compared to 90 funds in the previous quarter. Scion bought 250,000 shares of the company, worth $7.55 million. The company recently said that it continues to see a strong mortgage origination rate in the first quarter of 2021. The stock is up 42% over the last 12 months.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is one of the 99 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey having stakes in WFC at the end of the fourth quarter. The fund owns over 52.4 million shares of the company.

Miller Value Partners, in their Q4 2020 investor letter, said that Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) has been added in their portfolio during the second half of 2020. Here is what Miller Value Partners has to say about Wells Fargo & Company in their Q4 2020 investor letter:

“During the second half of the year, we initiated a position in Wells Fargo (WFC). The company’s share price has been under significant pressure since the 2016 account scandal, leading to senior management resignations, significant incremental expenses, and regulatory oversight. The company has a new CEO, Charlie Scharf, who joined in 2019 from JP Morgan. Charlie has been moving quickly to turnaround the company. He has brought in six new members to the Operating Committee all from outside the company and has recruited numerous successful senior executives from JP Morgan, BNY Mellon, and other leading financial institutions to fill senior roles at the bank. The company is taking a fresh look at each business segment, benchmarking against its peers. The company’s operating efficiency is more than 1700bps out of line with their peer group, providing a $10B cost and efficiency opportunity over the next couple of years. Wells Fargo’s stock price was more than cut in half during 2020; we entered the position at a 40% discount to book value which was near 30 year lows and approaching 2008-09 Financial crisis levels. Over the next couple of years, greater operating efficiencies and loan growth would support a return to 10%+ ROE, normalized EPS of $5/share, and book value likely approaching $50/share. We believe it’s more likely than not Wells Fargo’s share will be a top performer over the next couple of years.”

1. NOW Inc. (NYSE: DNOW)
Value: $10,770,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 4.79%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 22

Now Inc. ranks 1st on the list of Michael Burry’s new stock picks. The oil drilling services company operates under DistributionNOW and Wilson Export brand names. Its products are used in upstream drilling, oil exploration, midstream infrastructure, power generation and other industrial segments. Now Inc. shares recently rallied after the company announced its plans to acquire Flex Flow business from GR Energy Services. The stock is up 75% over the last 12 months.

There were 22 hedge funds that hold a position in NOW Inc. in the fourth quarter of 2020. The biggest stakeholder of the company is Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies, with 6.48 million shares, worth $46.5 million.

In their Q4 2020 investor letter, Palm Valley Capital highlighted a few stocks and Now Inc. (NYSE😀NOW) is one of them. Here is what Palm Valley Capital said:

“NOW is a 2014 spinoff from National Oilwell Varco and has a 150-year legacy as a distributor to the oil and gas and industrial markets. Through a vast network of 245 locations, NOW’s 300,000 SKU product offering addresses all segments of the energy value chain, from upstream E&Ps to midstream infrastructure to downstream refining, in addition to industrial end markets including chemicals, mining, utilities, and manufacturing. When energy companies reduce activity, NOW suffers. However, it has streamlined its business since the last oil and gas downturn and expects reduced operating losses this round. As of June 30th, NOW had $269 million of cash and no debt ($497 million market cap), although if demand recovers as we expect, some cash will be reinvested in working capital. The stock is currently selling for 66% of tangible book value.

Pason and NOW represent our fourth and fifth investments in the energy sector. The active rig count in the U.S. is at all-time lows. When considering our timing, we concluded, if not now, when? Our largest energy holding is Helmerich & Payne, the nation’s largest drilling contractor. It’s selling for half of book value. We believe the financial strength of our holdings is far above the typical energy company. Even so, we have kept our exposure to the energy sector in check given our concerns about the overall economy.”
 
Viendo lo contrarian que es este hilo a las acciones en las que invierte todo el mundo, a lo mejor interesan las últimas posiciones de Burry. GEO creo que la lleva alguien de aquí. Saludos y a seguir dándole duro.

Yo hoy he entrado en Kaspi.

5. CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW)
Value: $6,550,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 2.92%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 18

Corecivic ranks 5th on the list of Michael Burry’s new stock picks. The company operates over 50 correctional and detention facilities. The stock has lost about 23% in value over the last 12 months. In the fourth quarter, Corecivic’s normalized FFO came in at $0.63, beating the consensus of $0.49. The company in the quarter reduced its debt load by $125 million. The stock recently fell after The United States Marshals Services notified that company that it won’t extend its contract for the Ohio correctional center. The news comes after President Biden signed an executive order asking the Justice Department not to renew contracts with private correctional centers.

As of the end of the fourth quarter, there were 18 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database that held stakes in CoreCivic, compared to 19 funds in the third quarter. Arrowstreet Capital, with 2.8 million shares of CXW, is the biggest stakeholder in the company.

4. Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE: TAP)
Value: $6,779,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 3.02%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 39

Michael Burry bought 150,000 new shares of Molson Coors in the fourth quarter, ending the period with a $6.78 million stake in the company. The beverage company is behind several famous brands like Carling, Coors Light, Miller Lite, Molson Canadian and Staropramen. Molson Coors shares are up 19% over the last 12 months. The company posted weak Q4 results as it increases spending on new products. Last year, the company suspended its dividend, but the management now plans to recommend a resumption in dividend payments in the second half of 2021.

As of the end of the fourth quarter, 39 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database of 887 funds held stakes in TAP, compared to 33 funds in the third quarter. Arrowstreet Capital is the biggest stakeholder in the company, with 2.4 million shares, worth $108.6 million.

In their Q3 2020 investor letter, Argosy Investors highlighted a few stocks and Molson Coors Beverage Co (NYSE:TAP) is one of them. Here is what Argosy Investors said:

“I purchased shares of Molson Coors (TAP) during the third quarter, and this mid-tier brewer is valued attractively at less than 8x EBITDA, at the low end of historical multiples.

I do not expect a lot of growth from this investment, but it is challenging to find fairly-priced resilient businesses in the current environment, and if there is one thing I can count on is that people will drink beer, especially during a pandemic. The biggest risk is obviously that they may choose to drink other types of beer, specifically craft beers. While the company’s balance sheet is a little stretched, I believe the company is focused on reducing debt, most noticeably in their decision to suspend their dividend for 2020. I do not believe this investment will provide explosive returns for us, but I believe it is an attractive alternative to cash. The company can pay down significant amounts of debt fairly quickly and deliver reasonable equity returns by doing so.

Additionally, the company recently got into the hard seltzer game, specifically through their Vizzy and Coors Seltzer products. The author took the opportunity to sample these products over the Labor Day holiday, and came away impressed with the decent flavors, and subsequent conversations with millennials and particularly millennial females who had tried the product reflected positive early feedback for these offerings. Finally, Molson Coors announced a partnership with Coca-Cola to develop their Topo Chico hard seltzer product. The hard seltzer category is growing mid-teens percent annually right now, and I believe Molson Coors has enough irons in the fire here to make a decent impact on their top and bottom lines. Any amount of unexpected growth from these products would be a cherry on top to our investment case.”

3. The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO)
Value: $7,488,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 3.33%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 18

Florida-based REIT Geo Group ranks 3rd on the list of Michael Burry’s top new stock picks as his hedge fund Scion Asset Management bought 845,152 shares of the company, worth $7.5 million. Geo Group mainly invests in private prisons and mental health facilities in the U.S. U.K. Europe, Australia and Africa. The company has strong partnerships with governments. As of 2019, over half of the company’s revenue come from its partnership with federal agencies. Last month, the company priced a private offering of $200 million of 6.50% exchangeable senior unsecured notes due 2026 by its wholly-owned subsidiary, GEO Corrections Holdings.

A total of 18 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish GEO at the end of the fourth quarter, up from 12 funds a quarter earlier. Arrowstreet Capital is the biggest stakeholder in the company, with 2.69 million shares, worth $23.8 million.

Miller Value Partners, in their Q4 2020 investor letter, said that The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) was the top detractor in their fourth quarter 2020 results.

Here is what Miller Value Partners has to say about The GEO Group, Inc. in their Q4 2020 investor letter:

“GEO Group (GEO) was the top detractor over the quarter, falling 19.4%. The company reported Q3 revenue of $579.1M (-1% Quarter-over-Quarter (Q/Q)), net operating income of $151.4M (+2% Q/Q), and Earnings Before Income, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization, and Restructuring (EBITDAR) of $112.1M (-1% Q/Q). Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of $0.67 drove 2.0x coverage on the quarterly dividend of $0.34/share (15.4% annualized yield). GEO exited the quarter with cash of $54M and net debt of $2.6Bn, which on TTM EBITDAR of $448.8M implies net leverage of 5.8x. Management lifted Fiscal Year (FY) 20 guidance across the board, including revenue +0.3% to $4.347Bn, Net Operating Income (NOI) +3% to $609M, EBITDAR +4.4% to $429M, and AFFO +5.6% to $2.44/share (28% FCF yield). Additionally, GEO maintained guidance for $100M of debt paydown in 2020 and a minimum of $50M each year moving forward, which coupled with savings from the previously announced reduced dividend will be applied towards debt reduction.”

2. Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC)
Value: $7,545,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 3.36%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 99

Michael Burry joined the 99 hedge funds that are bullish on Wells Fargo in the fourth quarter, compared to 90 funds in the previous quarter. Scion bought 250,000 shares of the company, worth $7.55 million. The company recently said that it continues to see a strong mortgage origination rate in the first quarter of 2021. The stock is up 42% over the last 12 months.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is one of the 99 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey having stakes in WFC at the end of the fourth quarter. The fund owns over 52.4 million shares of the company.

Miller Value Partners, in their Q4 2020 investor letter, said that Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) has been added in their portfolio during the second half of 2020. Here is what Miller Value Partners has to say about Wells Fargo & Company in their Q4 2020 investor letter:

“During the second half of the year, we initiated a position in Wells Fargo (WFC). The company’s share price has been under significant pressure since the 2016 account scandal, leading to senior management resignations, significant incremental expenses, and regulatory oversight. The company has a new CEO, Charlie Scharf, who joined in 2019 from JP Morgan. Charlie has been moving quickly to turnaround the company. He has brought in six new members to the Operating Committee all from outside the company and has recruited numerous successful senior executives from JP Morgan, BNY Mellon, and other leading financial institutions to fill senior roles at the bank. The company is taking a fresh look at each business segment, benchmarking against its peers. The company’s operating efficiency is more than 1700bps out of line with their peer group, providing a $10B cost and efficiency opportunity over the next couple of years. Wells Fargo’s stock price was more than cut in half during 2020; we entered the position at a 40% discount to book value which was near 30 year lows and approaching 2008-09 Financial crisis levels. Over the next couple of years, greater operating efficiencies and loan growth would support a return to 10%+ ROE, normalized EPS of $5/share, and book value likely approaching $50/share. We believe it’s more likely than not Wells Fargo’s share will be a top performer over the next couple of years.”

1. NOW Inc. (NYSE: DNOW)
Value: $10,770,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 4.79%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 22

Now Inc. ranks 1st on the list of Michael Burry’s new stock picks. The oil drilling services company operates under DistributionNOW and Wilson Export brand names. Its products are used in upstream drilling, oil exploration, midstream infrastructure, power generation and other industrial segments. Now Inc. shares recently rallied after the company announced its plans to acquire Flex Flow business from GR Energy Services. The stock is up 75% over the last 12 months.

There were 22 hedge funds that hold a position in NOW Inc. in the fourth quarter of 2020. The biggest stakeholder of the company is Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies, with 6.48 million shares, worth $46.5 million.

In their Q4 2020 investor letter, Palm Valley Capital highlighted a few stocks and Now Inc. (NYSE😀NOW) is one of them. Here is what Palm Valley Capital said:

“NOW is a 2014 spinoff from National Oilwell Varco and has a 150-year legacy as a distributor to the oil and gas and industrial markets. Through a vast network of 245 locations, NOW’s 300,000 SKU product offering addresses all segments of the energy value chain, from upstream E&Ps to midstream infrastructure to downstream refining, in addition to industrial end markets including chemicals, mining, utilities, and manufacturing. When energy companies reduce activity, NOW suffers. However, it has streamlined its business since the last oil and gas downturn and expects reduced operating losses this round. As of June 30th, NOW had $269 million of cash and no debt ($497 million market cap), although if demand recovers as we expect, some cash will be reinvested in working capital. The stock is currently selling for 66% of tangible book value.

Pason and NOW represent our fourth and fifth investments in the energy sector. The active rig count in the U.S. is at all-time lows. When considering our timing, we concluded, if not now, when? Our largest energy holding is Helmerich & Payne, the nation’s largest drilling contractor. It’s selling for half of book value. We believe the financial strength of our holdings is far above the typical energy company. Even so, we have kept our exposure to the energy sector in check given our concerns about the overall economy.”

Que buena info, muchísimas gracias por compartir!!!
 
Jorobar que buen hilo. Me encanta aprender con vosotros. Estoy deseando escuchar vuestro próximo poscast!

Enviado desde mi LM-X525 mediante Tapatalk
 
Viendo lo contrarian que es este hilo a las acciones en las que invierte todo el mundo, a lo mejor interesan las últimas posiciones de Burry. GEO creo que la lleva alguien de aquí. Saludos y a seguir dándole duro.

Yo hoy he entrado en Kaspi.

5. CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW)
Value: $6,550,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 2.92%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 18

Corecivic ranks 5th on the list of Michael Burry’s new stock picks. The company operates over 50 correctional and detention facilities. The stock has lost about 23% in value over the last 12 months. In the fourth quarter, Corecivic’s normalized FFO came in at $0.63, beating the consensus of $0.49. The company in the quarter reduced its debt load by $125 million. The stock recently fell after The United States Marshals Services notified that company that it won’t extend its contract for the Ohio correctional center. The news comes after President Biden signed an executive order asking the Justice Department not to renew contracts with private correctional centers.

As of the end of the fourth quarter, there were 18 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database that held stakes in CoreCivic, compared to 19 funds in the third quarter. Arrowstreet Capital, with 2.8 million shares of CXW, is the biggest stakeholder in the company.

4. Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE: TAP)
Value: $6,779,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 3.02%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 39

Michael Burry bought 150,000 new shares of Molson Coors in the fourth quarter, ending the period with a $6.78 million stake in the company. The beverage company is behind several famous brands like Carling, Coors Light, Miller Lite, Molson Canadian and Staropramen. Molson Coors shares are up 19% over the last 12 months. The company posted weak Q4 results as it increases spending on new products. Last year, the company suspended its dividend, but the management now plans to recommend a resumption in dividend payments in the second half of 2021.

As of the end of the fourth quarter, 39 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database of 887 funds held stakes in TAP, compared to 33 funds in the third quarter. Arrowstreet Capital is the biggest stakeholder in the company, with 2.4 million shares, worth $108.6 million.

In their Q3 2020 investor letter, Argosy Investors highlighted a few stocks and Molson Coors Beverage Co (NYSE:TAP) is one of them. Here is what Argosy Investors said:

“I purchased shares of Molson Coors (TAP) during the third quarter, and this mid-tier brewer is valued attractively at less than 8x EBITDA, at the low end of historical multiples.

I do not expect a lot of growth from this investment, but it is challenging to find fairly-priced resilient businesses in the current environment, and if there is one thing I can count on is that people will drink beer, especially during a pandemic. The biggest risk is obviously that they may choose to drink other types of beer, specifically craft beers. While the company’s balance sheet is a little stretched, I believe the company is focused on reducing debt, most noticeably in their decision to suspend their dividend for 2020. I do not believe this investment will provide explosive returns for us, but I believe it is an attractive alternative to cash. The company can pay down significant amounts of debt fairly quickly and deliver reasonable equity returns by doing so.

Additionally, the company recently got into the hard seltzer game, specifically through their Vizzy and Coors Seltzer products. The author took the opportunity to sample these products over the Labor Day holiday, and came away impressed with the decent flavors, and subsequent conversations with millennials and particularly millennial females who had tried the product reflected positive early feedback for these offerings. Finally, Molson Coors announced a partnership with Coca-Cola to develop their Topo Chico hard seltzer product. The hard seltzer category is growing mid-teens percent annually right now, and I believe Molson Coors has enough irons in the fire here to make a decent impact on their top and bottom lines. Any amount of unexpected growth from these products would be a cherry on top to our investment case.”

3. The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO)
Value: $7,488,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 3.33%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 18

Florida-based REIT Geo Group ranks 3rd on the list of Michael Burry’s top new stock picks as his hedge fund Scion Asset Management bought 845,152 shares of the company, worth $7.5 million. Geo Group mainly invests in private prisons and mental health facilities in the U.S. U.K. Europe, Australia and Africa. The company has strong partnerships with governments. As of 2019, over half of the company’s revenue come from its partnership with federal agencies. Last month, the company priced a private offering of $200 million of 6.50% exchangeable senior unsecured notes due 2026 by its wholly-owned subsidiary, GEO Corrections Holdings.

A total of 18 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish GEO at the end of the fourth quarter, up from 12 funds a quarter earlier. Arrowstreet Capital is the biggest stakeholder in the company, with 2.69 million shares, worth $23.8 million.

Miller Value Partners, in their Q4 2020 investor letter, said that The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) was the top detractor in their fourth quarter 2020 results.

Here is what Miller Value Partners has to say about The GEO Group, Inc. in their Q4 2020 investor letter:

“GEO Group (GEO) was the top detractor over the quarter, falling 19.4%. The company reported Q3 revenue of $579.1M (-1% Quarter-over-Quarter (Q/Q)), net operating income of $151.4M (+2% Q/Q), and Earnings Before Income, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization, and Restructuring (EBITDAR) of $112.1M (-1% Q/Q). Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of $0.67 drove 2.0x coverage on the quarterly dividend of $0.34/share (15.4% annualized yield). GEO exited the quarter with cash of $54M and net debt of $2.6Bn, which on TTM EBITDAR of $448.8M implies net leverage of 5.8x. Management lifted Fiscal Year (FY) 20 guidance across the board, including revenue +0.3% to $4.347Bn, Net Operating Income (NOI) +3% to $609M, EBITDAR +4.4% to $429M, and AFFO +5.6% to $2.44/share (28% FCF yield). Additionally, GEO maintained guidance for $100M of debt paydown in 2020 and a minimum of $50M each year moving forward, which coupled with savings from the previously announced reduced dividend will be applied towards debt reduction.”

2. Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC)
Value: $7,545,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 3.36%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 99

Michael Burry joined the 99 hedge funds that are bullish on Wells Fargo in the fourth quarter, compared to 90 funds in the previous quarter. Scion bought 250,000 shares of the company, worth $7.55 million. The company recently said that it continues to see a strong mortgage origination rate in the first quarter of 2021. The stock is up 42% over the last 12 months.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is one of the 99 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey having stakes in WFC at the end of the fourth quarter. The fund owns over 52.4 million shares of the company.

Miller Value Partners, in their Q4 2020 investor letter, said that Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) has been added in their portfolio during the second half of 2020. Here is what Miller Value Partners has to say about Wells Fargo & Company in their Q4 2020 investor letter:

“During the second half of the year, we initiated a position in Wells Fargo (WFC). The company’s share price has been under significant pressure since the 2016 account scandal, leading to senior management resignations, significant incremental expenses, and regulatory oversight. The company has a new CEO, Charlie Scharf, who joined in 2019 from JP Morgan. Charlie has been moving quickly to turnaround the company. He has brought in six new members to the Operating Committee all from outside the company and has recruited numerous successful senior executives from JP Morgan, BNY Mellon, and other leading financial institutions to fill senior roles at the bank. The company is taking a fresh look at each business segment, benchmarking against its peers. The company’s operating efficiency is more than 1700bps out of line with their peer group, providing a $10B cost and efficiency opportunity over the next couple of years. Wells Fargo’s stock price was more than cut in half during 2020; we entered the position at a 40% discount to book value which was near 30 year lows and approaching 2008-09 Financial crisis levels. Over the next couple of years, greater operating efficiencies and loan growth would support a return to 10%+ ROE, normalized EPS of $5/share, and book value likely approaching $50/share. We believe it’s more likely than not Wells Fargo’s share will be a top performer over the next couple of years.”

1. NOW Inc. (NYSE: DNOW)
Value: $10,770,000
Percent of Michael Burry’s 13F Portfolio: 4.79%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 22

Now Inc. ranks 1st on the list of Michael Burry’s new stock picks. The oil drilling services company operates under DistributionNOW and Wilson Export brand names. Its products are used in upstream drilling, oil exploration, midstream infrastructure, power generation and other industrial segments. Now Inc. shares recently rallied after the company announced its plans to acquire Flex Flow business from GR Energy Services. The stock is up 75% over the last 12 months.

There were 22 hedge funds that hold a position in NOW Inc. in the fourth quarter of 2020. The biggest stakeholder of the company is Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies, with 6.48 million shares, worth $46.5 million.

In their Q4 2020 investor letter, Palm Valley Capital highlighted a few stocks and Now Inc. (NYSE😀NOW) is one of them. Here is what Palm Valley Capital said:

“NOW is a 2014 spinoff from National Oilwell Varco and has a 150-year legacy as a distributor to the oil and gas and industrial markets. Through a vast network of 245 locations, NOW’s 300,000 SKU product offering addresses all segments of the energy value chain, from upstream E&Ps to midstream infrastructure to downstream refining, in addition to industrial end markets including chemicals, mining, utilities, and manufacturing. When energy companies reduce activity, NOW suffers. However, it has streamlined its business since the last oil and gas downturn and expects reduced operating losses this round. As of June 30th, NOW had $269 million of cash and no debt ($497 million market cap), although if demand recovers as we expect, some cash will be reinvested in working capital. The stock is currently selling for 66% of tangible book value.

Pason and NOW represent our fourth and fifth investments in the energy sector. The active rig count in the U.S. is at all-time lows. When considering our timing, we concluded, if not now, when? Our largest energy holding is Helmerich & Payne, the nation’s largest drilling contractor. It’s selling for half of book value. We believe the financial strength of our holdings is far above the typical energy company. Even so, we have kept our exposure to the energy sector in check given our concerns about the overall economy.”

GEO la solté cuando rebotó a $8 porque estuve viendo los contratos y no pintaba tan bien. No tienen contratos largos sino que eran renovaciones anuales y con el tema de Biden... me largué. Si muere de un infarto, entro esa noche xDD
 
Emmmm se me hace dificil pedirlo así por la cara, pero... ¿A nadie le sobra una invitación para Forocarros? Que me banearon hace años por trollear roto2

Alguien está hablando sobre el podcast por ahí y me quiero pasar a saludar y a clarificar algo sobre Kaspi (un tío dice que la moneda kazaja se ha depreciado un 50% en los últimos años y no es así, solo se ha depreciado un 4% anual los últimos 5 años).
 
Emmmm se me hace dificil pedirlo así por la cara, pero... ¿A nadie le sobra una invitación para Forocarros? Que me banearon hace años por trollear roto2

Alguien está hablando sobre el podcast por ahí y me quiero pasar a saludar y a clarificar algo sobre Kaspi (un tío dice que la moneda kazaja se ha depreciado un 50% en los últimos años y no es así, solo se ha depreciado un 4% anual los últimos 5 años).

Te paso yo una invitación.
 
Emmmm se me hace dificil pedirlo así por la cara, pero... ¿A nadie le sobra una invitación para Forocarros? Que me banearon hace años por trollear roto2

Alguien está hablando sobre el podcast por ahí y me quiero pasar a saludar y a clarificar algo sobre Kaspi (un tío dice que la moneda kazaja se ha depreciado un 50% en los últimos años y no es así, solo se ha depreciado un 4% anual los últimos 5 años).
Buenas tardes.
Agradecer al creador del hilo y a todos los que aportaís, yo sólo me limito a leeros, escucharos.

¿que interés tienes en explicar a un presumido ignorante que está equivocado? mejor que siga viviendo en su ignorancia.

Os sigo leyendo y gracias.
 
Muchachos, he descubierto el hilo hace relativamente poco gracias a que le seguí la pista a goldgold por el tema eucaliptero (tengo unas cuantas hectáreas plantadas por mí mismo en su día, la primera corta ya se hizo) y me he dado cuenta de que tenéis un clus ahí de inversores bastante majo

yo no tengo idea de inversión pero algo de olfato sí y el año pasado se puso tan a cigot que sin saber de esto doblé... ahora estoy pensando en aprender algo con la idea de salvar poder adquisitivo a medio-largo , ya se que solo fue un sonar de flauta por casualidad... así que trataré de aprender algo de vos

cuáles son los que más pilotan de vosotros? alguna recomendación, página o hilo?

Al goldgold le he visto un par de afinidades que me han gustado en otros temas, se ve un tipo fino, de esos gallegos frixinteligentes.
 

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