Bitcoin is moving from its Deceptive phase to a very Disruptive phase
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Bitcoin's Evolution - Why it will be Disruptive Soon
My friend Barry Silbert (founder of Second Market) recently spoke as my guest at Singularity University's Exponential Finance conference about Bitcoin. He provided an excellent overview of its near-term trajectory, summarized below. His input has also put me on the lookout for the "User Interface Moment" - that moment in time when an entrepreneur designs a piece of interface software (think Marc Andreessen and Mosaic) that makes it so easy to use bitcoin.
I'll be reporting on those user interfaces, investing in those startups and helping to promote them.
Okay, now back to Barry Silbert's insights. Barry outlined five phases for this digital currency that help explain where it's been and where it's going.
Phase 1: The period 2009 to 2011 was the early 'experimentation phase' for bitcoin (i.e. deceptive). Here the software is released to public and most technologists and hackers started playing with the code. During this phase, there was no apparent value to currency yet; mining bitcoin was easy and could be done by a single person on a MacBook or PC.
Phase 2: 2011 marked the beginning of the 'early adopter' phase (still deceptive). There was a lot of early hype and press around Silk Road (where you could buy drugs). The value went from less than $1 to over $30, then crashed. This spurs the first generation of bitcoin companies to build basic infrastructure: wallets, merchant processors, mining operations, exchanges, etc. - i.e. the early user interfaces.
Phase 3: 2012 thru mid-2014 marked the beginning of the 'Venture Capital Phase.' Folks like Marc Andreessen, Google Ventures, Benchmark and others have begun investing in Generation 2 Bitcoin companies. We are right in the middle of Phase 3 right now. Thousands of bitcoin companies are getting funding. Many of these are trying to create the "User-Interface Moment."
Phase 4: Fall 2014 thru 2015 will like see the start of the Wall Street Phase. Here we will begin to see institutional money acknowledging digital currencies as an asset class, and they will begin trading it, investing it and creating products around it. This marks the start of the disruptive phase.
Phase 5: Finally will come the 'Mass Global Consumer Adoption' phase -- this is where bitcoin becomes a major player in the global economy. When consumers feel it is easy, safe and secure to use bitcoin. It won't be possible until after the "User Interface Moment" materializes, but I believe, as does Barry, that this is only 1-2 years out.