Habéis visto el IBEX35? Julio 2014: gacelas con servidor nuevo, se miran y ven cuatro cigotos +

Este foro esquizoide hoy estara repleto de jatos alargados y tal.

Hoy que hacemos, esperamos el Ibwx en los 12k o hubdimos el mundo?

El SP esta mas manipulado que el concurso de miss universo.
 
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Alpha Natural Resources Can Most Likely Survive, But Can It Thrive?


Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary

Alpha Natural has good liquidity, with most of its debt maturing in 2018 or later and substantial room to do more secured borrowing if needed.
Met coal prices remain in the dumps and Alpha Natural likely needs prices around $170 to $180 to reach positive free cash flow.
Assigning a 10x multiple to 2016 EBITDA and discounting it back doesn't lead to a compelling fair value, but Alpha is a leveraged play to a met coal recovery.

In a brutal market for coal producers, Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) management has done a commendable job of cutting costs and enhancing liquidity. Unfortunately, the $170 to $180 per tonne in met coal pricing that the company needs for positive free cash flow seems a long way off. Companies like Anglo American (OTCPK:AAUKY) have in the past struck lucky when key producing areas have been hit by significant disruptions and the significant short interest here is a bit like a coiled spring for any good news. That said, a 10x multiple to 2016 EBITDA discounted back doesn't offer huge upside and this is only a stock for those who can handle above-average risks and a long wait.
The Good - Quality Assets, Good Liquidity, Realistic Management

I continue to believe that Alpha Natural Resources has a good asset base of coal mines (what those mines are worth today and in the future is a different matter). The company has very high-quality Central Appalachian (or CAPP) mines with very good cost structures, as well as mines in Northern Appalachia (or NAPP) and the Powder River Basin. Roughly three-quarters of the company's coal is low-sulfur and close to 70% is high-BTU. Alpha has more than 4 billion tons of coal in its reserves, with well over 1 billion tons of metallurgical coal. Although the company is not a low-cost met coal producer, it has generally been the largest met coal exporter from the U.S.

Also included in Alpha's good assets is Alpha's Appalachian shale gas acreage. The company committed 7.5K acres to a joint venture with Rice Energy (NYSE:RICE) and is now looking to sell some or all of the 9.5 million shares in the company (which could raise as much as $250 million). Alpha has another 10K acres in a second JV, but this acreage is less developed.

I believe that Alpha has taken smart steps to enhance the company's liquidity position. With a debt transaction earlier this year, the company now has about $2.6 billion of liquidity and close to 90% of the company's debt matures in 2018 or later (a point at which many analysts believe met coal prices will be good enough to allow positive FCF). I'd also note that under 30% of Alpha's debt is secured, versus about 45% at Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) and 70% at Walter (NYSE:WLT). That gives Alpha Natural considerably more room to maneuver, and with sustaining capex costs of around $200M, this company isn't under quite as much pressure.

In my view Alpha also benefits from a realistic management team. While Alpha once had 145 mines, 38 of them were shuttered by the end of 2012 and another 26 have been shuttered since. Management cut $150 million from annual costs in 2012-2013 and is targeting additional cost cuts in 2014. Not only is Alpha pretty efficient among Appalachian operators, the company does pretty well in the PRB as well, with margins that are somewhat worse than Cloud Peak (NYSE:CLD), but a fair bit better than Arch Coal. Management also seems realistic with respect to market conditions; expecting $120/mt to be at or near the bottom for met coal, but also still recognizing that the market is oversupplied by 10M-plus tonnes
The Bad - Weak Prices, Weak Footing

Pricing continues to be a significant issue for coal producers. Met coal continues to languish as Australian exports increase and thermal prices remain weak as utilities burn natural gas and get by with lower stockpiles.

I also want to mention something that I think is an increasingly significant factor when thinking about a coal recovery. This decline/trough hasn't been like past declines and coal companies like Alpha, Arch, and Walter have found themselves in much tougher liquidity circumstances. With higher debt levels and interest expense and a lower starting point for the recovery, I think far more capital is going to toward balance sheet repair during the next upcycle than has been the norm in the past, and that could compress the upside.
The Ugly - The World Is Changing

Can the coal market see a recovery? For all of the talk of competition from natural gas, thermal coal is still an important fuel source for electricity generation and likely to remain so for many years - even as utilities retire older coal-fired plants, they are increasing generation from more efficient modern plants. The EPA is clearly looking to reduce carbon emissions from electricity generation (and coal generates about two and a half times more CO2 than natural gas), but that isn't necessarily the death knell for thermal coal.

On the met side, there is too much capacity out there today and I have some long-term structural worries as most of the growth in steel production (and thus met coal demand) is going to be in emerging markets like China and not developed markets like Europe.
A Long Wait Without An Unusual Event

Alpha Natural is not as stressed financially as Arch Coal or Walter, but I also don't see the company having the resources or financial flexibility to diversify the way CONSOL Energy (NYSE:CNX) has). I think the company needs to see met coal selling for $170 or $180 to achieve positive free cash flow and I expect that to be a 2016-2018 event. Alpha has enough liquidity to stick around until then, and if there were a major disruption to the global markets (like flooding in Australia) that would certainly help firm up pricing.

Waiting two years or more for positive free cash flow is not going to be an easy wait. The shares aren't likely to sit still in the meantime, though, as there is a large short interest in Alpha (as well as Walter and Arch) and the shares are likely to react to any intermediate wiggles in the thermal and met markets.
The Bottom Line

Valuing companies in a deep cyclical trough is not easy; multiples to current non-existent profits tell you nothing and significant positive free cash flows are many years out. Giving a 10x EBITDA multiple to 2016 and discounting that back at 11% leads to a fair value of about $3.75 today, while a free cash flow model can produce a fair value ranging from $1 to $4.50 depending upon when the company returns to positive FCF and what the "new normal" is on a long-term basis thereafter.

If I had to invest in coal today, I'd probably look at China's China Shenhua (OTCPK:CSUAY) (which I wrote about here) or Indonesia's Bukit Asam (OTCPK:TBNGY) (which I wrote about here). Among the American companies, I suppose Cloud Peak, Peabody, and CONSOL all merit watching, but I do like Alpha Natural as a very risky play on a met coal recovery. I can't really see myself buying these shares, but the upside if higher met coal prices arrive earlier than expected would not be trivial.


TEngo puesta orden de compra en 2.50. Leyendo el artículo posiblemente estaría comprando caro.
 
Namreir dijo:
Este foro esquizoide hoy estara repleto de jatos alargados y tal.

Hoy que hacemos, esperamos el Ibwx en los 12k o hubdimos el mundo?

El SP esta mas manipulado que el concurso de miss universo.
Hacer clic para expandir...
Veamos, ayer tocaba hundir el mundo...por tanto hoy ibex en los 12000 😉
 
Mola ver su discusiones, como son virtuales, la sangre no llega al río (com la de los pobres ucranianos, palestinos, asiáticos, jovenlandeses, ex-yugoslavos y todos sus con poca gracias "daños colaterales" )

Personalmente tengo una predicción agridulce. En el fondo veo que la situación social se está degradando tanto que vamos a tener una vejez muy chunga (si llegamos, siendo optimista) y dejaremos un futuro zain zain a nuestros descendientes. Por otra parte, pienso que los que más tienen que perder no deberían dejar a sus clientes (nosotros) sin medios que les garanticen su nivel. ¿No? Así que dejo de pensar en el futuro y miro el presente:

Hablando de bolsa, las tecnologías siguen up up up.
Google a tope, Apple presenta resultados al cierre y casi en máximos, y mientras tanto en Ejpaña ....
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capitan-cavernicola dijo:
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Alpha Natural Resources Can Most Likely Survive, But Can It Thrive?


Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary

Alpha Natural has good liquidity, with most of its debt maturing in 2018 or later and substantial room to do more secured borrowing if needed.
Met coal prices remain in the dumps and Alpha Natural likely needs prices around $170 to $180 to reach positive free cash flow.
Assigning a 10x multiple to 2016 EBITDA and discounting it back doesn't lead to a compelling fair value, but Alpha is a leveraged play to a met coal recovery.

In a brutal market for coal producers, Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) management has done a commendable job of cutting costs and enhancing liquidity. Unfortunately, the $170 to $180 per tonne in met coal pricing that the company needs for positive free cash flow seems a long way off. Companies like Anglo American (OTCPK:AAUKY) have in the past struck lucky when key producing areas have been hit by significant disruptions and the significant short interest here is a bit like a coiled spring for any good news. That said, a 10x multiple to 2016 EBITDA discounted back doesn't offer huge upside and this is only a stock for those who can handle above-average risks and a long wait.
The Good - Quality Assets, Good Liquidity, Realistic Management

I continue to believe that Alpha Natural Resources has a good asset base of coal mines (what those mines are worth today and in the future is a different matter). The company has very high-quality Central Appalachian (or CAPP) mines with very good cost structures, as well as mines in Northern Appalachia (or NAPP) and the Powder River Basin. Roughly three-quarters of the company's coal is low-sulfur and close to 70% is high-BTU. Alpha has more than 4 billion tons of coal in its reserves, with well over 1 billion tons of metallurgical coal. Although the company is not a low-cost met coal producer, it has generally been the largest met coal exporter from the U.S.

Also included in Alpha's good assets is Alpha's Appalachian shale gas acreage. The company committed 7.5K acres to a joint venture with Rice Energy (NYSE:RICE) and is now looking to sell some or all of the 9.5 million shares in the company (which could raise as much as $250 million). Alpha has another 10K acres in a second JV, but this acreage is less developed.

I believe that Alpha has taken smart steps to enhance the company's liquidity position. With a debt transaction earlier this year, the company now has about $2.6 billion of liquidity and close to 90% of the company's debt matures in 2018 or later (a point at which many analysts believe met coal prices will be good enough to allow positive FCF). I'd also note that under 30% of Alpha's debt is secured, versus about 45% at Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) and 70% at Walter (NYSE:WLT). That gives Alpha Natural considerably more room to maneuver, and with sustaining capex costs of around $200M, this company isn't under quite as much pressure.

In my view Alpha also benefits from a realistic management team. While Alpha once had 145 mines, 38 of them were shuttered by the end of 2012 and another 26 have been shuttered since. Management cut $150 million from annual costs in 2012-2013 and is targeting additional cost cuts in 2014. Not only is Alpha pretty efficient among Appalachian operators, the company does pretty well in the PRB as well, with margins that are somewhat worse than Cloud Peak (NYSE:CLD), but a fair bit better than Arch Coal. Management also seems realistic with respect to market conditions; expecting $120/mt to be at or near the bottom for met coal, but also still recognizing that the market is oversupplied by 10M-plus tonnes
The Bad - Weak Prices, Weak Footing

Pricing continues to be a significant issue for coal producers. Met coal continues to languish as Australian exports increase and thermal prices remain weak as utilities burn natural gas and get by with lower stockpiles.

I also want to mention something that I think is an increasingly significant factor when thinking about a coal recovery. This decline/trough hasn't been like past declines and coal companies like Alpha, Arch, and Walter have found themselves in much tougher liquidity circumstances. With higher debt levels and interest expense and a lower starting point for the recovery, I think far more capital is going to toward balance sheet repair during the next upcycle than has been the norm in the past, and that could compress the upside.
The Ugly - The World Is Changing

Can the coal market see a recovery? For all of the talk of competition from natural gas, thermal coal is still an important fuel source for electricity generation and likely to remain so for many years - even as utilities retire older coal-fired plants, they are increasing generation from more efficient modern plants. The EPA is clearly looking to reduce carbon emissions from electricity generation (and coal generates about two and a half times more CO2 than natural gas), but that isn't necessarily the death knell for thermal coal.

On the met side, there is too much capacity out there today and I have some long-term structural worries as most of the growth in steel production (and thus met coal demand) is going to be in emerging markets like China and not developed markets like Europe.
A Long Wait Without An Unusual Event

Alpha Natural is not as stressed financially as Arch Coal or Walter, but I also don't see the company having the resources or financial flexibility to diversify the way CONSOL Energy (NYSE:CNX) has). I think the company needs to see met coal selling for $170 or $180 to achieve positive free cash flow and I expect that to be a 2016-2018 event. Alpha has enough liquidity to stick around until then, and if there were a major disruption to the global markets (like flooding in Australia) that would certainly help firm up pricing.

Waiting two years or more for positive free cash flow is not going to be an easy wait. The shares aren't likely to sit still in the meantime, though, as there is a large short interest in Alpha (as well as Walter and Arch) and the shares are likely to react to any intermediate wiggles in the thermal and met markets.
The Bottom Line

Valuing companies in a deep cyclical trough is not easy; multiples to current non-existent profits tell you nothing and significant positive free cash flows are many years out. Giving a 10x EBITDA multiple to 2016 and discounting that back at 11% leads to a fair value of about $3.75 today, while a free cash flow model can produce a fair value ranging from $1 to $4.50 depending upon when the company returns to positive FCF and what the "new normal" is on a long-term basis thereafter.

If I had to invest in coal today, I'd probably look at China's China Shenhua (OTCPK:CSUAY) (which I wrote about here) or Indonesia's Bukit Asam (OTCPK:TBNGY) (which I wrote about here). Among the American companies, I suppose Cloud Peak, Peabody, and CONSOL all merit watching, but I do like Alpha Natural as a very risky play on a met coal recovery. I can't really see myself buying these shares, but the upside if higher met coal prices arrive earlier than expected would not be trivial.


TEngo puesta orden de compra en 2.50. Leyendo el artículo posiblemente estaría comprando caro.
Hacer clic para expandir...

No compres mientras esté bajista.

El nivel de entrada poco importa si gira al alza.
 
Hoy toca superar los máximos históricos del IBEX Asi que hay qur pasar de 16.000 PUNTOS En una hora da tiempo.

Enviado desde mi GT-I9300
 
Mi guaaaanooo me lo robaaaaaron....anoooocheee cuando dormíaaaa

[YOUTUBE]F9Z1NO0NUhA[/YOUTUBE]

Vamos guaneros que no decaiga....todo lo que suba es para bajar más rápido, aunque lo haga desde los 17 miles juanlusienses.

P.D. yo no cambio mis sentimientos apocalípticos...como dije, Antes perecid que sencilla 😀
 
Última edición:
ponzi dijo:
debe ser cada pocos días o diariamente

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La semana pasada estaba en el 8,64% y hoy en el 9,05%
Hacer clic para expandir...

Puntualizo.

La semana pasada estaban al 8.96%, el 14 de julio aumentaron al 9.05%.
 
no quito ojo a las plateras. Me parecen un indicador muy bueno de lo que puede pasar próximamente.
 
en cuanto te alejas del intradia y entras en el hvei dos veces al dia... Parece coña, en menos de 24 horas estabamos en los infiernos, y ahora parece de nuevo el campamento verde flor.
 
FranR dijo:
Mi guaaaanooo me lo robaaaaaron....anoooocheee cuando dormíaaaa

[YOUTUBE]F9Z1NO0NUhA[/YOUTUBE]

Vamos guaneros que no decaiga....todo lo que suba es para bajar más rápido, aunque lo haga desde los 17 miles juanlusienses.

P.D. yo no cambio mis sentimientos apocalípticos...como dije, Antes perecid que sencilla 😀
Hacer clic para expandir...

y no se le ocurra cambiarlas, que ojalá se cumplan 😉

pero primero deje subir esto hasta 10900 para salir con unas cortesana y volver a esperar esa caída hasta... hasta... 10000 estaría bien.

Por mi parte y por supuesto IMHO, veo que se cumple lo de siempre, al timing preciso de la jugada ni idea, a eso no llego, pero la esencia de los movimientos sí.
Los leoncios tiran los precios antes de resultados para comprar barato, reventando SL sin compasión, y luego se vuelve a subir rápido para que las gacelas persigan el precio ante las ''buenas noticias'' y los muchos beneficios de banca y demás.
Y una vez llenado el horno, vuelta a empezar.

Disclaimer: mi Attention Whorismo es evidente y no lo niego... ya he dicho que soy un pueblerino gallego con gorro de Iberdrola que sabe lo que le cuenta su primo el de la granja de gorrinos.
 
Vamos a echar a la tragaperras!!
Unas pocas a UNITED RENTALS, INC. (URI)
 
Como ya dije, para mí, ésta es la ventaja a corto plazo de ANR respecto a las otras. Por eso liquidé Walter a la mínima y dejé estas para largo...

Also included in Alpha's good assets is Alpha's Appalachian shale gas acreage. The company committed 7.5K acres to a joint venture with Rice Energy (NYSE:RICE) and is now looking to sell some or all of the 9.5 million shares in the company (which could raise as much as $250 million). Alpha has another 10K acres in a second JV, but this acreage is less developed.
Hacer clic para expandir...

Y si las otras cascan... pues ya saben, el cuento de la lechera...
 
atman dijo:
Como ya dije, para mí, ésta es la ventaja a corto plazo de ANR respecto a las otras. Por eso liquidé Walter a la mínima y dejé estas para largo...



Y si las otras cascan... pues ya saben, el cuento de la lechera...
Hacer clic para expandir...

Eso lo saben las manos fuertes y los fondos.

Sin embargo el rastro que dejan en la pauta de precios y de volumen es que sistemáticamente las velas rojas tienen más volumen que las velas verdes.

El volumen de las velas verdes es lamentable.

Está dejada de la mano de dios en esta caída.

Wait & See
 
atman dijo:
Como ya dije, para mí, ésta es la ventaja a corto plazo de ANR respecto a las otras. Por eso liquidé Walter a la mínima y dejé estas para largo...



Y si las otras cascan... pues ya saben, el cuento de la lechera...
Hacer clic para expandir...

El precio baja, pero los institucionales siguen cargando 😛ienso:

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EDITO: Son datos muy defasados... del 31 de Marzo. No he dicho nada.
 
Última edición:
Pues el SP parece que va a probar los máximos históricos en esta sesión. ..

Enviado desde mi GT-I9300
 
Están haciendo un trabajazo mis FER, resistiendo como jabatos los ataques de Pandoro estos días anteriores y subiéndose al carro hoy que toca chupinazo.

Eso sí, jorobar que día de curro, estoy de números hasta los agallas. Estoy tan agilipollado que hasta me ha parecido leer no se qué de que Bertok decía alcista. Figúrate.
 
Krim dijo:
Están haciendo un trabajazo mis FER, resistiendo como jabatos los ataques de Pandoro estos días anteriores y subiéndose al carro hoy que toca chupinazo.

Eso sí, jorobar que día de curro, estoy de números hasta los agallas. Estoy tan agilipollado que hasta me ha parecido leer no se qué de que Bertok decía alcista. Figúrate.
Hacer clic para expandir...
Te has equivocado al leer. Seguro
Repasa los mensajes y veras.

Enviado desde mi GT-I9300
 
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