Los retailers usanos están con la guillotina en el pescuezo. Necesitan un tiempo para cambiar radicalmente su modelo de negocio y mientras tanto queman mucho cash y queda la incertidumbre de si el nuevo modelo les dejará hueco en el mercado. Lo que ya es seguro es que el hueco es más pequeño porque los entrantes pure-ecommerce han ocupado mucho terreno de los tradicionales.
No obstante, hay un mensaje bueno y una oportunidad de ganar mucho dinero. Vean el chart de Kroger. Siempre se puede subir coyunturalmente por mucho que el fondo sea malo.
Esto es debido a que los modelos están cuestionado y el cash-burning están descompensando mucho las valoraciones porque el miedo al futuro hace que se pasen varios pueblos gracias a los cortos de los grandes hedge funds usanos. Pero, al igual que el muelle vuelve a su posición de reposo (aunque se deforme), los EV se terminarán rebalanceando.
No olviden que los retailers tradicionales tienen una fortuna en activos inmobiliarios.
Losing relevance in a changing consumer world
Best Buy and J. C. Penney are both facing this change. Over the past half-decade, an enormous amount of consumer spending has shifted away from traditional bricks and mortar retailers as people have become more accustomed to the ease and convenience of the web.
The interesting thing is, since 2008, Best Buy's total sales are actually up 20%, and it's certainly more a victim of the success of the Amazon's of the world than Penney is, while Penney's revenue is down more than 39% over the same time period. Best Buy has benefited from the demise of Circuit City, and its sheer size and presence has buoyed it to some extent, but sales are down almost 7% in the past nine months. We just learned that sales dropped 1.5% over the holiday shopping season just ended, so sales will be down for the full year.
Definition of insanity
Penney, on the other hand, is challenged with rediscovering favor with shoppers after spending 2012 and 2013 confusing and alienating them via two about-faces before taking the same approach as before. The company may run out of time (and money) before it's able to reestablish a message that resonates with shoppers and brings profits. For now, it's back to discounts and sales, the same formula that resulted in declining revenue and profits, and the ouster of CEO Mike Ullman -- who's now back in charge -- and has implemented the same marketing strategy.
The difference today? Billions in losses, a massive 40% dilution for investors through a stock offering to generate capital, and more losses to come. But the company is trying the exact same market strategy that was failing three years ago...
Final thoughts
Best Buy has the advantage of being the only major "analog" retailer in consumer electronics and appliances. The company has put serious focus on its web business, and is now using 400 of its stores as warehouses to fulfill web orders. If the company is able to attract customers and grow its online business enough, this hybrid approach could lead to it remaining viable. Despite falling sales numbers, Best Buy was profitable in the first three quarters of 2013, and will likely be so in Q4.
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