Aquí os paso un resumen que ha hecho un compañero accionista de Celsius Resources sobre la compañia y pronósticos futuribles... por si a alguien le interesa.
A SHORT SUMMARY OF THE CELSIUS RESOURCES (CLA.AX): Plus my own personal view of where the share price may go – (Disclaimer: I am a long term shareholder of CLA and bullish.)
In 2015 Brendan Borg (BB) a respected Australian geologist in the Battery metals field- with a sound history of uncovering and creating successful new projects foresaw, before most other people, that the cobalt price would rise significantly due to a coming world cobalt shortage, which will really bite in around 2020.
The Cobalt Shortage: Cobalt is used in many things: a super alloy in aviation, medical instruments, robotics etc. But most importantly it’s needed in lithium Ion batteries, so demand has grown with the growth of laptops and mobile phones and is now exploding with the coming electric vehicles (EV) and green power revolution. The fast burgeoning growth of EV will lead to a critical shortage of cobalt. Any vehicle/ computer/ phone/ green companies or battery makers who cannot secure cobalt supplies in the future risk going extinct. It is so critical yet its also the most supply constrained of all the battery metals. In my view it will be at least 10 years till any real alternatives to cobalt (if one is even found) can go into widespread enough production to mitigate the coming cobalt price rally. To understand better just do some research on the issue on the web. It’s all well researched and documented if you look. The world produced 112,000 tons of Cobalt last year, but by 2025 demand is slated to reach between 200-300,000 tons. So new reliable sources of cobalt are now in desperate and immediate demand by many huge companies and governments.
Cobalt Supply constraints: The main issue is that 99% of the Worlds cobalt comes as a by-product of Copper or nickel - so to get a ton of cobalt most mines have to produce many, many, tons of copper or nickel. So even if the Cobalt price goes through the roof it does not miccionan it’s viable to mine more if the main copper and nickel prices don’t add up. Also critically, around 65% of the entire worlds Cobalt supply comes only from The DRC (Congo) a very unstable country with bad infrastructure, government, ethical issues of child labour and a new civil war brewing. So the world is now desperate to locate any new large-scale supplies of cobalt from outside the DRC. Especially the sort of high quality sulphide based Cobalt, low in deleterious materials like CLA has just discovered (that’s best for batteries). Plus CLA’s ore body is has a high ratio of cobalt to copper so its essentially financially cobalt led with the copper/zinc being only a by-product credit.
The CLA story: In 2015 BB started searching worldwide and in 2016 he located a potentially large prospective sulphide cobalt target in Namibia - One of Africa’s most stable mining jurisdictions. This resource had previously been drilled by BB’s old company (Rio Tinto) while exploring for copper. Those few holes and rock samples indicated a potentially huge, DOF (Dolomite Ore formation) ore body containing good cobalt and some copper – but at the time the low price of cobalt made it non-viable so Rio gave it a pass and moved on. BB then cheaply secured the option to this at-the-time unwanted site as the Cobalt price was then low. Back in Australia with some co-investors BB acquired CLA – then a dead shell company listed on the ASX. (Oz stock exchange) They raised some capital, injected the project and started exploration surveys, drilling and metallurgical work
With BB as MD, over the last 14 months CLA has drilled over 180 holes in just a 10km section of the huge 100Km + DOF ore body on its tenements. The holes proved consistent amounts of the best type of Sulphide Cobalt as well as Copper and Zinc. And during the period, just as BB had envisaged, the price of cobalt rose from USD 20,000 to 90,000 a ton which made the project extremely valuable. On 16th April this year CLA announced their Maiden JORC resource. (a JORC is independently confirmed by stock exchange approved specialists) It is now proven as the biggest new Sulphide cobalt resource in the world outside the DRC - and this is just from drilling in less than 10% of their vast potential ore body!! The resource so far has been proven to contain 112 million tons grading 0.11% Co/0.41%Cu/0.4 zinc so far and still remains open to expansion “in all directions”.
The future for CLA: At today prices this announcement just three weeks ago suddenly gave CLA a gross in-ground resource value (with less than 10% of their potential resource even drilled) of around USD 12.6 billion!. The next phase of development to define the resource’s (and CLA’s) extracted value is the Scoping Study. (S.S) This is another independent experts study, which defines how much it will cost to extract (mine) and process the metals for sale. This S.S is now underway and should be completed in late June. It will define the real value of the resource so far and therefore of CLA shares. All indications so far are that the resource is expected to prove very viable to mine profitably. We shall not know for sure until the end of June. If the S.S proves viable, (as I expect), the final phase is to complete a bankable antiestéticasibility study (BFS), hopefully by year end, and then to start mining- by around 2020.
Several of the biggest end user companies in the world: car/computer/metals/mining and battery making companies, are all getting more and more desperate for a new reliable supply of good Cobalt. Several are already calling CLA (not the other way around!) to discuss options for either a buy-out of CLA and or a JV whereby they will fund CLA’s mine set-up costs in return for a guaranteed off-take of cobalt. It is unlikely that any major deal will be announced until after the SS. But personally I expect we should see the first bids hopefully coming in later in this year (which will be publically announced) and should move the SP much higher. CLA has just completed a new cash raising giving it 15 million AUD to now fund its SS, so its well funded for further drilling to significantly expand and improve its current resource, and to do the BFS.
CLA share price history: Over the 14 months since the new project started in early 2017, the CLA share Price (SP) has risen gradually with the increasing good news so far, from 2 cents to 20 cents today (from a 2 million AUD market cap start-up to AUD120 million cap today). The SP went as high as 24.5 cents just after the announcement recent maiden resource and is now sitting around 19.5 cents.
My CLA share price (SP) forecast *(Caveat This is all entirely my own personal price forecast which presumes that things will stay more or less normal and that there is no great stock market or cobalt price shocks) - If this remains so, as I anticipate. the CLA S.P should sit around here in the upper teens/ low twenties level for another month or so. However it should then begin to climb again in mid-June-ish in anticipation of a good SS. - From my personal guesswork only, I’m expecting the SS to show low Capex costs, and roughly mining and processing costs (Opex) of around USD 40,000 a ton for cobalt. This could, I’m guessing - give CLA a net value of around AUD 700 mill-1 billion or more – as its only capped now at 120 million that should make the SP move higher again to around 30 cents+ (that would give CLA about a 250 million Market cap (there’s 800 million shares on issue -fully diluted) However, even at 40 cents it would still value CLA significantly cheaper than all its ASX peers–(see attached valuation models on email.).
I would then guess after another period of consolidation in the late summer, the SP should continue to rise towards year end to reach equality with peer valuations – I’d guess to maybe around 40-50 cents – this price would also take into account further drilling which should significantly increase the resource size, plus the likelihood of a big deal with a major end user company would be growing nearer.
Finally (I’d guess towards year end 2018) – If all goes well I would logically expect the first announcements of either a buyout or a JV off-take agreement with a major suitor. I would expect the buyout price to be between AUD 600-800 million which represents around AUD 80 cents to 1$ a share. (That would seem a very reasonable valuation to me) However, If a JV agreement to mine (not a buyout) is agreed on, I would expect the share price to ultimately go significantly higher than 1$. How much higher of course depends upon the cobalt price. (See some attached forecast valuations for SP if mining begins). Some commentators forecast the cobalt price to reach as high as USD 180-200,000 a ton for example, if such a price move peine it could send the CLA share price well over 1$ towards 2$.
The Risks? In my view CLA is now less risky than when it was an explorer with a much cheaper share price. (Many things could go wrong then, and with no asset backing there was a 100% loss potential). The share price is now again cheap and safer as its now underpinned by the massive resource asset. After the SS (if its good) there will be even less risk. This project is rapidly de-risking and becoming more undervalued. I feel the remaining risks are:
1.Scoping Study Risk: If the SS results are not good this share could loose value. Personally I am confident the results will be good. But if you don’t want that risk then wait until after the SS to buy (but the SP could be considerably higher by then if SS is good).
2.Company Risk –If the SS is good I see very little company risk. BB and his advisors/managers plus CLA’s in-country partner and a major shareholder, the top Namibian mining services company Gheko, have proven track records at efficiently developing resources into mines. They are all also big shareholders and they should get the job done with most efficiency for all shareholders.
3.Soverign Risk: I see no significant Sovereign risk in Namibia, It is recognized as one of the best and easiest mining jurisdictions in Africa, so far they have proven themselves a stable, reasonable, pro-mining government with sensible laws and taxes who have never cheated a mine company or -to my knowledge - any other significant foreign investor
4. Cobalt price risk: This is where the potential risk lies. – I’m guessing that if the cobalt price falls below around say USD 40,000 a ton (now USD 90,000) CLA is probably not massively viable and the SP would fall. If after you’re research you think that cobalt will fall - then don’t buy this share!. Conversely if (as I personally expect) - the cobalt price continues to appreciate then the CLA SP could rise way up over 1$. CLA post SS will eventually, in effect become a massive leveraged play on the global cobalt price. We will thrive or die by the cobalt price. And I for one am a Cobalt bull.
See further charts/ peer comparisons / and financial models attached on the email. – For further daily trading news and articles on CLA I suggest you go to the Celcius Resources website, or best for me is the website Hotcopper.com -then go to the CLA thread to see daily market discussion trading info views and articles on CLA, cobalt and Namibia.
A SHORT SUMMARY OF THE CELSIUS RESOURCES (CLA.AX): Plus my own personal view of where the share price may go – (Disclaimer: I am a long term shareholder of CLA and bullish.)
In 2015 Brendan Borg (BB) a respected Australian geologist in the Battery metals field- with a sound history of uncovering and creating successful new projects foresaw, before most other people, that the cobalt price would rise significantly due to a coming world cobalt shortage, which will really bite in around 2020.
The Cobalt Shortage: Cobalt is used in many things: a super alloy in aviation, medical instruments, robotics etc. But most importantly it’s needed in lithium Ion batteries, so demand has grown with the growth of laptops and mobile phones and is now exploding with the coming electric vehicles (EV) and green power revolution. The fast burgeoning growth of EV will lead to a critical shortage of cobalt. Any vehicle/ computer/ phone/ green companies or battery makers who cannot secure cobalt supplies in the future risk going extinct. It is so critical yet its also the most supply constrained of all the battery metals. In my view it will be at least 10 years till any real alternatives to cobalt (if one is even found) can go into widespread enough production to mitigate the coming cobalt price rally. To understand better just do some research on the issue on the web. It’s all well researched and documented if you look. The world produced 112,000 tons of Cobalt last year, but by 2025 demand is slated to reach between 200-300,000 tons. So new reliable sources of cobalt are now in desperate and immediate demand by many huge companies and governments.
Cobalt Supply constraints: The main issue is that 99% of the Worlds cobalt comes as a by-product of Copper or nickel - so to get a ton of cobalt most mines have to produce many, many, tons of copper or nickel. So even if the Cobalt price goes through the roof it does not miccionan it’s viable to mine more if the main copper and nickel prices don’t add up. Also critically, around 65% of the entire worlds Cobalt supply comes only from The DRC (Congo) a very unstable country with bad infrastructure, government, ethical issues of child labour and a new civil war brewing. So the world is now desperate to locate any new large-scale supplies of cobalt from outside the DRC. Especially the sort of high quality sulphide based Cobalt, low in deleterious materials like CLA has just discovered (that’s best for batteries). Plus CLA’s ore body is has a high ratio of cobalt to copper so its essentially financially cobalt led with the copper/zinc being only a by-product credit.
The CLA story: In 2015 BB started searching worldwide and in 2016 he located a potentially large prospective sulphide cobalt target in Namibia - One of Africa’s most stable mining jurisdictions. This resource had previously been drilled by BB’s old company (Rio Tinto) while exploring for copper. Those few holes and rock samples indicated a potentially huge, DOF (Dolomite Ore formation) ore body containing good cobalt and some copper – but at the time the low price of cobalt made it non-viable so Rio gave it a pass and moved on. BB then cheaply secured the option to this at-the-time unwanted site as the Cobalt price was then low. Back in Australia with some co-investors BB acquired CLA – then a dead shell company listed on the ASX. (Oz stock exchange) They raised some capital, injected the project and started exploration surveys, drilling and metallurgical work
With BB as MD, over the last 14 months CLA has drilled over 180 holes in just a 10km section of the huge 100Km + DOF ore body on its tenements. The holes proved consistent amounts of the best type of Sulphide Cobalt as well as Copper and Zinc. And during the period, just as BB had envisaged, the price of cobalt rose from USD 20,000 to 90,000 a ton which made the project extremely valuable. On 16th April this year CLA announced their Maiden JORC resource. (a JORC is independently confirmed by stock exchange approved specialists) It is now proven as the biggest new Sulphide cobalt resource in the world outside the DRC - and this is just from drilling in less than 10% of their vast potential ore body!! The resource so far has been proven to contain 112 million tons grading 0.11% Co/0.41%Cu/0.4 zinc so far and still remains open to expansion “in all directions”.
The future for CLA: At today prices this announcement just three weeks ago suddenly gave CLA a gross in-ground resource value (with less than 10% of their potential resource even drilled) of around USD 12.6 billion!. The next phase of development to define the resource’s (and CLA’s) extracted value is the Scoping Study. (S.S) This is another independent experts study, which defines how much it will cost to extract (mine) and process the metals for sale. This S.S is now underway and should be completed in late June. It will define the real value of the resource so far and therefore of CLA shares. All indications so far are that the resource is expected to prove very viable to mine profitably. We shall not know for sure until the end of June. If the S.S proves viable, (as I expect), the final phase is to complete a bankable antiestéticasibility study (BFS), hopefully by year end, and then to start mining- by around 2020.
Several of the biggest end user companies in the world: car/computer/metals/mining and battery making companies, are all getting more and more desperate for a new reliable supply of good Cobalt. Several are already calling CLA (not the other way around!) to discuss options for either a buy-out of CLA and or a JV whereby they will fund CLA’s mine set-up costs in return for a guaranteed off-take of cobalt. It is unlikely that any major deal will be announced until after the SS. But personally I expect we should see the first bids hopefully coming in later in this year (which will be publically announced) and should move the SP much higher. CLA has just completed a new cash raising giving it 15 million AUD to now fund its SS, so its well funded for further drilling to significantly expand and improve its current resource, and to do the BFS.
CLA share price history: Over the 14 months since the new project started in early 2017, the CLA share Price (SP) has risen gradually with the increasing good news so far, from 2 cents to 20 cents today (from a 2 million AUD market cap start-up to AUD120 million cap today). The SP went as high as 24.5 cents just after the announcement recent maiden resource and is now sitting around 19.5 cents.
My CLA share price (SP) forecast *(Caveat This is all entirely my own personal price forecast which presumes that things will stay more or less normal and that there is no great stock market or cobalt price shocks) - If this remains so, as I anticipate. the CLA S.P should sit around here in the upper teens/ low twenties level for another month or so. However it should then begin to climb again in mid-June-ish in anticipation of a good SS. - From my personal guesswork only, I’m expecting the SS to show low Capex costs, and roughly mining and processing costs (Opex) of around USD 40,000 a ton for cobalt. This could, I’m guessing - give CLA a net value of around AUD 700 mill-1 billion or more – as its only capped now at 120 million that should make the SP move higher again to around 30 cents+ (that would give CLA about a 250 million Market cap (there’s 800 million shares on issue -fully diluted) However, even at 40 cents it would still value CLA significantly cheaper than all its ASX peers–(see attached valuation models on email.).
I would then guess after another period of consolidation in the late summer, the SP should continue to rise towards year end to reach equality with peer valuations – I’d guess to maybe around 40-50 cents – this price would also take into account further drilling which should significantly increase the resource size, plus the likelihood of a big deal with a major end user company would be growing nearer.
Finally (I’d guess towards year end 2018) – If all goes well I would logically expect the first announcements of either a buyout or a JV off-take agreement with a major suitor. I would expect the buyout price to be between AUD 600-800 million which represents around AUD 80 cents to 1$ a share. (That would seem a very reasonable valuation to me) However, If a JV agreement to mine (not a buyout) is agreed on, I would expect the share price to ultimately go significantly higher than 1$. How much higher of course depends upon the cobalt price. (See some attached forecast valuations for SP if mining begins). Some commentators forecast the cobalt price to reach as high as USD 180-200,000 a ton for example, if such a price move peine it could send the CLA share price well over 1$ towards 2$.
The Risks? In my view CLA is now less risky than when it was an explorer with a much cheaper share price. (Many things could go wrong then, and with no asset backing there was a 100% loss potential). The share price is now again cheap and safer as its now underpinned by the massive resource asset. After the SS (if its good) there will be even less risk. This project is rapidly de-risking and becoming more undervalued. I feel the remaining risks are:
1.Scoping Study Risk: If the SS results are not good this share could loose value. Personally I am confident the results will be good. But if you don’t want that risk then wait until after the SS to buy (but the SP could be considerably higher by then if SS is good).
2.Company Risk –If the SS is good I see very little company risk. BB and his advisors/managers plus CLA’s in-country partner and a major shareholder, the top Namibian mining services company Gheko, have proven track records at efficiently developing resources into mines. They are all also big shareholders and they should get the job done with most efficiency for all shareholders.
3.Soverign Risk: I see no significant Sovereign risk in Namibia, It is recognized as one of the best and easiest mining jurisdictions in Africa, so far they have proven themselves a stable, reasonable, pro-mining government with sensible laws and taxes who have never cheated a mine company or -to my knowledge - any other significant foreign investor
4. Cobalt price risk: This is where the potential risk lies. – I’m guessing that if the cobalt price falls below around say USD 40,000 a ton (now USD 90,000) CLA is probably not massively viable and the SP would fall. If after you’re research you think that cobalt will fall - then don’t buy this share!. Conversely if (as I personally expect) - the cobalt price continues to appreciate then the CLA SP could rise way up over 1$. CLA post SS will eventually, in effect become a massive leveraged play on the global cobalt price. We will thrive or die by the cobalt price. And I for one am a Cobalt bull.
See further charts/ peer comparisons / and financial models attached on the email. – For further daily trading news and articles on CLA I suggest you go to the Celcius Resources website, or best for me is the website Hotcopper.com -then go to the CLA thread to see daily market discussion trading info views and articles on CLA, cobalt and Namibia.
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