Zapatero and Ábalos: shared cell unlikely despite judicial offensive in Spain

Zapatero will not share a shower with Ábalos, no matter how hard some judges try

A motion of confidence in the judiciary is on the table. Former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is not going to end up in prison alongside former minister José Luis Ábalos, no matter how much a current of "sour" judges — in the official jargon — might wish it. The government's narrative and that of the Socialist Party establishment have already staked out their position: the judicial investigations into the Ábalos case and the Sánchez family's business dealings are a political persecution orchestrated by a "bunch of corrupt and barren judges." A discourse that Pedro Sánchez himself has staged on social media, likening the magistrates to "preachers" and "conspirators in the shadows."

The central thesis of the current Prime Minister is that legislative inaction against corruption is the fault of the Partido Popular (the conservative opposition party), while action — that is, the investigations — would be the fruit of destructive envy. An argument that diverts attention from the facts: never before have so many senior officials from the same party been under judicial scrutiny at the same time. The Koldo case, Ábalos's kickbacks, the contracts of the Madrid regional president's partner... the list is long and crosses party lines.

The victimisation strategy and its economic cost

The cost of this strategy is not merely fruta. Judicial uncertainty surrounding key figures in the government has already caused tensions in the Spanish debt markets. The risk premium rose five basis points in the week Ábalos's indictment became known, and analysts point out that the lack of legal certainty discourages foreign investment. Meanwhile, Zapatero continues his public life with no court having ordered his pre-trial detention.

The irony of the debate is that those now railing against the "judicialisation of politics" have reforms that curbed the independence of the judiciary on their record. The 2021 reform of the CGPJ (Spain's governing council of the judiciary), agreed with ERC, remains blocked precisely because of the PSOE's refusal to renew its members. The contradiction is so glaring that even some sectors of moderate socialism are beginning to voice their discomfort. But the order from Moncloa (the Prime Minister's office) is clear: playing against the judges pays off electorally in the short term.

An escape route for Zapatero?

On the judicial horizon, Zapatero is not charged in any active incivil case related to Ábalos. The possibility of his sharing a cell is remote. But the climate of institutional confrontation suggests that the offensive against the judges will not stop. The pattern is familiar: if you cannot win in court, discredit the courts. The problem is that when the courts lose credibility, the whole country pays the price.

The unanswered question is whether this strategy will withstand the impact of the upcoming rulings. So far, the balance of power in the Incivil Chamber of the Supreme Court is unfavourable to the government. Zapatero stays out of jail, yes, but the shadow of suspicion has already tainted the Socialist brand for a generation. The cell is not for former prime ministers: it is for democratic credibility.