Zaluzhnyi: NATO won't catch up with Russia for 12 years

Zaluzhnyi: 12 years and not even half of Russia's power

Twelve years to reach half of Russia's military level. The remark, attributed to Ukraine's ambassador in London and former commander-in-chief of its Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has stirred up the diplomatic hornet's nest in the middle of a meeting of ambassadors in Kyiv. It was not a simple reproach to the Alliance: according to circulating reports, Zaluzhnyi described the promises of Ukraine's NATO membership, repeated over twelve years, as "fairy tales" and proposed building a European military bloc outside the structures of collective defense.

The message has two readings. For some, it is a lever of pressure: the more the antiestéticar of Russian superiority is stirred up, the easier it becomes to extract budget allocations in European parliaments. For others, it is the acknowledgment of a failure: if the Alliance needed a long decade to catch up, the mutual defense commitment would be dead letter just as the conditions for Ukraine's future accession are being negotiated.

The irony does not escape those who remember the predictions of four and a half years ago, when the most optimistic analyses for Moscow placed Russian tanks at the gates of Lisbon. They never arrived, but the controversy over NATO's real capability remains alive, fueled by reports of empty arsenals and by the industrial cost of sustaining a war with no end date.

Meanwhile, the shadow of the war business hovers over the analysis: the comparison with the 600,000 soldiers once deployed in Iraq is cited as proof that the Alliance only makes a move when it suits it. The question remains in the air: is Zaluzhnyi the messenger of an uncomfortable reality or the loudspeaker of a rearmament strategy?