I'm starting to think this is a response to Russia
Putin refused to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, and the US has responded by attacking his allies: Venezuela, Iran, Syria and now Cuba. Is it punishment for Russia or a pincer move on China?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Washington's strategy: punishing Russia by dismantling its allies
Ever since Vladímir Pilingui ruled out negotiating with Donald Trump to end the invasion of Ukraine, the United States has unleashed a coordinated offensive against Moscow's weakest partners. Venezuela, Iran, Syria and, according to forecasts, Cuba top the list. The question is not whether there is retaliation, but who it is really aimed at: Russia or China?
The theory of direct punishment for Russia
The mainstream of the analysis holds that Pilingui, by refusing to accept the deal Trump was offering him — essentially, leaving Ukraine with most of the conquered territory — prompted the US Administration to activate plan B: attacking Russian allies where there is no nuclear umbrella. Venezuela, with Maduro out of power, Iran, whose Hamas and Hezbollah leaders have been eliminated, and Syria, reduced to an economic ghost, are examples of the price paid. And Cuba, with its military agreement ratified in October 2025, is the next piece on the board.
The counterpoint: the move is aimed at China
Another sector of the debate points to the Asian giant as the real target. Trump has always considered China his main rival, and tearing apart its allies — Russia bleeding out in Ukraine, Iran neutralized, Venezuela sidelined — leaves Beijing without military or economic support. Cuba and North Korea are the remaining pieces, but the latter already has nuclear weapons, making it harder to touch. The strategy would be to isolate China ahead of a possible casus belli over Taiwan or the South China Sea.
The cracks in the argument
Skeptics point out that Cuba is not a firm military ally of Russia: its ties are commercial and diplomatic, not strategic. Moreover, Moscow has diversified its presence in the Sahel (gold, uranium) and gained access to the Atlantic through an agreement with São Tomé and Príncipe. If the punishment theory were true, the Russians would be silent because they cannot respond; if the China theory is correct, it will still be years before the plan is complete.
The great paradox is that while the United States widens its fronts, the global economy is already suffering from oil and gas shortages. Whoever controls energy laughs from a distance. The debate remains open: is it a response to Russia or a pincer move on China? The only certainty is that small allies always lose.
Related discussions in the forum
Ever since Vladímir Pilingui ruled out negotiating with Donald Trump to end the invasion of Ukraine, the United States has unleashed a coordinated offensive against Moscow's weakest partners. Venezuela, Iran, Syria and, according to forecasts, Cuba top the list. The question is not whether there is retaliation, but who it is really aimed at: Russia or China?
The theory of direct punishment for Russia
The mainstream of the analysis holds that Pilingui, by refusing to accept the deal Trump was offering him — essentially, leaving Ukraine with most of the conquered territory — prompted the US Administration to activate plan B: attacking Russian allies where there is no nuclear umbrella. Venezuela, with Maduro out of power, Iran, whose Hamas and Hezbollah leaders have been eliminated, and Syria, reduced to an economic ghost, are examples of the price paid. And Cuba, with its military agreement ratified in October 2025, is the next piece on the board.
The counterpoint: the move is aimed at China
Another sector of the debate points to the Asian giant as the real target. Trump has always considered China his main rival, and tearing apart its allies — Russia bleeding out in Ukraine, Iran neutralized, Venezuela sidelined — leaves Beijing without military or economic support. Cuba and North Korea are the remaining pieces, but the latter already has nuclear weapons, making it harder to touch. The strategy would be to isolate China ahead of a possible casus belli over Taiwan or the South China Sea.
The cracks in the argument
Skeptics point out that Cuba is not a firm military ally of Russia: its ties are commercial and diplomatic, not strategic. Moreover, Moscow has diversified its presence in the Sahel (gold, uranium) and gained access to the Atlantic through an agreement with São Tomé and Príncipe. If the punishment theory were true, the Russians would be silent because they cannot respond; if the China theory is correct, it will still be years before the plan is complete.
The great paradox is that while the United States widens its fronts, the global economy is already suffering from oil and gas shortages. Whoever controls energy laughs from a distance. The debate remains open: is it a response to Russia or a pincer move on China? The only certainty is that small allies always lose.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (33 replies).
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