Worst employment quarter since 2012: data challenging Yolanda Díaz

Unemployment rises by 60,800 and official statistics hide half a million furloughed workers

Active Population Survey (EPA) data for the third quarter of 2022 dealt a blow to the official narrative. Unemployment increased by 60,800 people between July and September, a 2.1% rise from the previous quarter, marking the worst figure since 2012. The official figure stands at 12.7%, but the debate over statistical manipulation is back in the spotlight.

The numbers that don’t add up: furloughs, irregular workers, and manipulated affiliations

What the EPA does not show is that, according to various estimates, there are around 500,000 people on temporary layoff (ERTE) who are not counted as unemployed. This is compounded by the controversial classification of "irregular permanent workers" (fijos discontinuos): employees who may be inactive for more than half the year but are counted as employed. A real example: a person went to the employment office and found out they were registered as an irregular permanent worker despite not being called by their company for over six months. Cases like this are multiplying, artificially inflating employment figures.

Meanwhile, Social Security registrations rose by 91,000 people in the same period, but the trick lies in registering vocational training (FP) students on internships. They do not contribute, do not generate rights, but swell the statistics as if they were new jobs. "It’s like signing up for the gym and being counted as an Olympic athlete," summarized an analyst.

Real unemployment may double official figures

If you add the entire working-age population without a job, including those on furlough, inactive irregular permanent workers, long-term unemployed over 52 receiving subsidies, and beneficiaries of the Minimum Vital Income (IMV), the real unemployment rate would skyrocket. Some calculations place it near 25%, meaning about 5 million people without effective work. "They are removing unemployed people through the ERTE system, subsidies for the over-52 unemployed, the Minimum Vital Income... this is how 6 or 7 million unemployed are camouflaged," denounced a participant in the analysis.

The National Statistics Institute (INE) shields itself from criticism

While the figures generate skepticism, the National Statistics Institute (INE) has announced the hiring of an external agency to monitor what is published about its statistics on social media. The goal: "to mitigate negative messages that affect the institution's image." A measure many interpret as an attempt to control the narrative amid growing public distrust.

The question hanging in the air is how long this statistical fiction can be maintained. "When someone new comes in and tries to fix it, they will have to tell the truth and make the change, then unemployment will rise above 25%," predicted an analyst. Until then, the debate over the reliability of employment data is more alive than ever.