Why Spain's opposition fears the PSOE's new candidate

Sánchez's succession: why the opposition antiestéticars the "new candidate"

With the leadership of Spain's PSOE at the centre of the storm, an uncomfortable thesis is gaining ground among analysts: the fall of the secretary general may not be the victory the opposition expects. If the party presents fresh faces and a narrative of a "renewed project", the illusion can be reactivated and the discredited leader's wear buried with him. It is the new-coach effect applied to politics: the manager is changed, two star signings are made and the fans fill the stadium again.

The play has a recognisable playbook. First, the leader is burned as the public face: he takes all the blame and leaves. Then, two or three clean-cut faces stage unity and the "new beginning". The patronage machine, the friendly media and those who live off the budget switch into campaign mode. The underlying message: the party was fine, the problem was that man. We saw it with Felipe, we saw it with Zapatero, and we will see it with whoever comes next.

Sanchismo as a regime: what a change of face cannot fix

Against that reading, some argue that this is no longer about the PSOE, but about sanchismo (Sánchez's political machine): a web of patronage networks, aspiring entrants and captive voters that will outlast any handover. In Andalusia, the argument goes, that is a million votes. The successor will be the same regime or something like it, and the new voters —the grandchildren of the memory law, for instance— add a variable nobody knows how to gauge.

The "rebellion" of mayors and councillors against the leader, seen in local terms, is less epic than it looks: they are few, insignificant and acting out of self-interest. The uncomfortable conclusion is that the PSOE can afford to sacrifice a secretary general without the racket moving a millimetre. The speculation about the succession already swings between the Transport Ministry and the Defence Ministry.

The analysis stalls on one question: will the voter learn the lesson, or fall once more for the illusion of the new candidate? Nobody knows for sure. The opposition, meanwhile, is right not to celebrate anything: the leader's fall may simply be the first move in a play that is not over yet.