Why do we need gas and oil when Spain has a treasure?
Can Spain do without gas and oil? The data analysis shows that renewable electricity is not enough: fertilizers and industry still depend on fossil fuels.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Spain and the 100% renewable myth: what the energy debate hides
In the middle of a cold wave, Spain still has the most expensive electricity bill in Europe. However, recent data shows that renewables have covered up to 80% of electricity demand at certain times of the day. Does that miccionan Spain can abandon gas and oil? Analyzing the numbers and the arguments reveals that the transition is not that simple.
Electricity yes, but what about the rest?
The renewable optimism is based on a real fact: during last March, wind and solar generated more than 80% of the electricity on several days. The forecast is that this will be the average by 2030, and that 100% will be reached before 2040 with massive support from batteries. However, electricity accounts for barely a quarter of total energy consumption. Shipping, aviation, the petrochemical industry and, above all, intensive agriculture depend on fossil fuels. Without sulfur there is no electrification, as has been pointed out in the debate, and the manufacture of solar panels and turbines also requires oil and gas.
The Achilles' heel of renewables: fertilizers
The most critical point is food production. Nitrogen fertilizers are made from natural gas, and the so-called "green revolution" made it possible to feed 8 billion people. Without those fertilizers, agricultural production would fall drastically. Some advocate a return to manure and organic fertilizers, but the evidence shows they would not be enough to sustain the current population. The news about the fertilizer crisis in India, with rationing and the risk of famine, illustrates the consequences of that dependence. Against this, renewable advocates bet on technology: artificial intelligence creating new materials and nuclear fusion energy as a future solution. However, these promises clash with the reality that material resources are limited.
The open question is whether the superabundance promised by Elon Musk (robots, cheap energy, the disappearance of labor costs) will arrive before the bottlenecks in phosphates and lithium send us back to the 19th century. The debate is not settled, and the coming years will be crucial to see whether Spain can turn its renewable treasure into real energy sovereignty or whether, as the most skeptical warn, the blackout will come not from a lack of sun, but from a lack of materials.
Related discussions in the forum
In the middle of a cold wave, Spain still has the most expensive electricity bill in Europe. However, recent data shows that renewables have covered up to 80% of electricity demand at certain times of the day. Does that miccionan Spain can abandon gas and oil? Analyzing the numbers and the arguments reveals that the transition is not that simple.
Electricity yes, but what about the rest?
The renewable optimism is based on a real fact: during last March, wind and solar generated more than 80% of the electricity on several days. The forecast is that this will be the average by 2030, and that 100% will be reached before 2040 with massive support from batteries. However, electricity accounts for barely a quarter of total energy consumption. Shipping, aviation, the petrochemical industry and, above all, intensive agriculture depend on fossil fuels. Without sulfur there is no electrification, as has been pointed out in the debate, and the manufacture of solar panels and turbines also requires oil and gas.
The Achilles' heel of renewables: fertilizers
The most critical point is food production. Nitrogen fertilizers are made from natural gas, and the so-called "green revolution" made it possible to feed 8 billion people. Without those fertilizers, agricultural production would fall drastically. Some advocate a return to manure and organic fertilizers, but the evidence shows they would not be enough to sustain the current population. The news about the fertilizer crisis in India, with rationing and the risk of famine, illustrates the consequences of that dependence. Against this, renewable advocates bet on technology: artificial intelligence creating new materials and nuclear fusion energy as a future solution. However, these promises clash with the reality that material resources are limited.
The open question is whether the superabundance promised by Elon Musk (robots, cheap energy, the disappearance of labor costs) will arrive before the bottlenecks in phosphates and lithium send us back to the 19th century. The debate is not settled, and the coming years will be crucial to see whether Spain can turn its renewable treasure into real energy sovereignty or whether, as the most skeptical warn, the blackout will come not from a lack of sun, but from a lack of materials.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (55 replies).
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