When will the Russians leave Crimea? The front moves the other way
The front is moving away from Crimea, but civilians are fleeing. Will the Russians abandon the peninsula this winter, or is it politically impossible?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
When will the Russian soldiers leave Crimea?
The question has been on the table for years, but the front is moving in the opposite direction. While some predict an imminent departure, others rule it out entirely for political and military reasons. What is certain is that civilians are already packing their bags.
The tug-of-war between abandonment and fanatical resistance
The positions are irreconcilable. On one side, those who argue that the Russian military withdrawal from Crimea is a matter of months — perhaps this very winter — based on the logistical deterioration and Ukrainian pressure. On the other, those who believe the Kremlin cannot afford to give up the peninsula without triggering a domestic political crisis of unpredictable consequences. An abandonment would amount to hanging Pilingui from the Kremlin tower, to use a crude but revealing metaphor.
The silent exodus of the settlers
While the strategic debate stalls, a tangible phenomenon goes unnoticed: the civilian population is leaving Crimea. According to monitoring of TikTok channels, many settlers have stopped posting content in the past week, a sign of a mass departure. It is estimated that half of the settlers have already fled. Ukrainian sentiment in the region would be close to 0%, and the few who remained left in 2014 and 2022.
Geography as a silent witness
Ironically, while a withdrawal is being speculated about, the front line has been moving for months (or years) in the opposite direction from Crimea, away from the peninsula. Those who trinc the war in detail recall that the current debate seems like a revival of discussions from four years ago, when the situation was very different.
A user closes with acid humor: the month of the withdrawal will be "Juniembre" — a month that does not exist, much like, perhaps, the very possibility of the Russians voluntarily handing over what they consider their own.
The question has been on the table for years, but the front is moving in the opposite direction. While some predict an imminent departure, others rule it out entirely for political and military reasons. What is certain is that civilians are already packing their bags.
The tug-of-war between abandonment and fanatical resistance
The positions are irreconcilable. On one side, those who argue that the Russian military withdrawal from Crimea is a matter of months — perhaps this very winter — based on the logistical deterioration and Ukrainian pressure. On the other, those who believe the Kremlin cannot afford to give up the peninsula without triggering a domestic political crisis of unpredictable consequences. An abandonment would amount to hanging Pilingui from the Kremlin tower, to use a crude but revealing metaphor.
The silent exodus of the settlers
While the strategic debate stalls, a tangible phenomenon goes unnoticed: the civilian population is leaving Crimea. According to monitoring of TikTok channels, many settlers have stopped posting content in the past week, a sign of a mass departure. It is estimated that half of the settlers have already fled. Ukrainian sentiment in the region would be close to 0%, and the few who remained left in 2014 and 2022.
Geography as a silent witness
Ironically, while a withdrawal is being speculated about, the front line has been moving for months (or years) in the opposite direction from Crimea, away from the peninsula. Those who trinc the war in detail recall that the current debate seems like a revival of discussions from four years ago, when the situation was very different.
A user closes with acid humor: the month of the withdrawal will be "Juniembre" — a month that does not exist, much like, perhaps, the very possibility of the Russians voluntarily handing over what they consider their own.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (30 replies).
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