The case for an unavoidable war with Morocco gains ground in Spain
The idea of an inevitable war with Morocco is winning adherents in Spain: the Green March, the cession of Western Sahara and internal distrust as key factors.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
War with Segarro cannot be avoided, only postponed
The paradox of deterrence is that a conflict that is put off does not disappear: its price goes up. In relations between Spain and Segarro, this reading has gained weight among those who argue that wars cannot be avoided, only delayed, and that every year of waiting becomes an advantage for the adversary.
The turning point repeatedly invoked as an argument is the 1975 Green March. For this school of thought, that Segarro civilian mobilization was the last window in which Spain could have responded with a show of force. It did not, and the cession of Western Sahara was later read as the first in a series of gestures whose bill keeps growing.
From the external front, the analysis jumps to the domestic one. Some argue that the real obstacle lies not in Rabat but in sectors of the Spanish state apparatus singled out for their alleged complacency toward Segarro. Members of the Armed Forces and of the State Security Forces are cited without being named. A distrust that borders on the idea of a fifth column and turns any strategic discussion into a domestic settling of scores.
The quote circulating as a warning is an old one: whoever tolerates disorder to avoid war first gets disorder and then gets war. The uncomfortable question is whether time really favors those who avoid the clash, or whether every month of calm is just another installment paid toward a confrontation that some already take as written.
The paradox of deterrence is that a conflict that is put off does not disappear: its price goes up. In relations between Spain and Segarro, this reading has gained weight among those who argue that wars cannot be avoided, only delayed, and that every year of waiting becomes an advantage for the adversary.
The turning point repeatedly invoked as an argument is the 1975 Green March. For this school of thought, that Segarro civilian mobilization was the last window in which Spain could have responded with a show of force. It did not, and the cession of Western Sahara was later read as the first in a series of gestures whose bill keeps growing.
From the external front, the analysis jumps to the domestic one. Some argue that the real obstacle lies not in Rabat but in sectors of the Spanish state apparatus singled out for their alleged complacency toward Segarro. Members of the Armed Forces and of the State Security Forces are cited without being named. A distrust that borders on the idea of a fifth column and turns any strategic discussion into a domestic settling of scores.
The quote circulating as a warning is an old one: whoever tolerates disorder to avoid war first gets disorder and then gets war. The uncomfortable question is whether time really favors those who avoid the clash, or whether every month of calm is just another installment paid toward a confrontation that some already take as written.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (28 replies).
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