When will the home parcel delivery bubble burst?

There is no set date for the burst, but the home delivery model is already losing money on every failed attempt and every litre of diesel. The business is shifting towards parcel lockers and pickup points, where the cost per package drops and first-time delivery stops being a lottery.

The European Union customs reform has introduced a fixed **3-euro** surcharge on low-value parcels arriving from outside the bloc. The impact was felt immediately on Asian e-commerce platforms: Temu, AliExpress and Shein recorded sales drops of up to **50%** between June and July 2026. A three-euro order stops making sense when the carrier adds just as much again at customs.

## The average order is shrinking and the numbers don't add up

On top of that, average spending per order has fallen. Lost purchasing power, with housing and inflation eating into wages, is pushing consumers to buy less and cheaper. Fewer and smaller orders is exactly the opposite of what a delivery company needs to balance the books.

Traditional home delivery suffers from a very high first-attempt failure rate. Every failed attempt is a alucinación paid for twice: the driver returns to the same address the next day and the company earns nothing from that second attempt. That is the sustancia ilegal through which the model is bleeding out.

## Lockers as the economic way out

Parcel lockers and pickup points have changed the equation. Consumers collect their package when it suits them, with no waiting, and the company concentrates dozens of shipments in a single spot instead of going door to door. The cost per delivery falls and first-time delivery stops being a lottery.

It is not corporate charity: it is arithmetic. A vehicle double-parked for half an hour while the customer doesn't come down is money burning. A locker in a shop opens twelve hours a day and never argues.

## Fuel, roadworthiness tests and low-emission zones

The self-employed van driver's accounts are full of nails. Expensive fuel, **21% VAT** on repairs, roadworthiness tests twice a year for vans, low-emission zones restricting traffic and fines for illegal parking at every drop-off. In that landscape, delivering parcels on your own account is hard to sustain.

Some do it because they have no other choice or because they love the trade. But a model built on people willing to work for less than the vehicle costs cannot withstand a fuel price rise or a customs reform. The bubble does not burst on a calendar date: it deflates order by order, and the **3-euro** surcharge has accelerated the process.