When the economic apocalypse didn't arrive (or did it)

Twenty years of apocalyptic predictions: what hits and what misses?

How much is it worth believing economic doomsayers? In the mid-2000s, when housing in Spain seemed unstoppable, some were already predicting a collapse. But the temptation to prophesy the end of the financial world is neither new nor innocent: between verified data and free prophecy there is a fine line that, when crossed, turns analysis into noise.

The call for moderation in 2006
It was 2006 when calls were made to curb unfounded predictions. The idea was simple: if there is no data, there is no serious debate. «It is as wrong to say 'this won't fall no way' as 'this will explode on such and such a day',» it was argued. The response was divided: some celebrated the pursuit of rigor; others saw it as censorship and missed the plurality. Meanwhile, the real estate sector continued to grow and Euribor climbed.

The 2008 crisis and partial vindication
With the collapse of Lehman Brothers, many prophets of chaos seemed to be right. But not all scenarios came true. In August 2008, Alan Greenspan warned of more bank bailouts, but rejected tough regulation. In February 2009, Fox News' «The War Room» staged a «financial Pearl Harbor» with four scenarios of widespread collapse. Reality turned out to be less apocalyptic: there were bailouts, yes, but neither hyperinflation nor the disappearance of the dollar.

From 2012 to 2020: the return of omens
Years later, the thread resurfaced with new crises. In June 2012 an image asked «now?», while European sovereign debt trembled. But the collapse did not come. It took until 2020 and the pandemic for the darkest visions to take shape: lockdown, GDP fall around 10% and food banks distributing 67 million kilos.

Lesson?
Fifteen years of debates show that distinguishing between prophecy and paranoia is not easy. Some predictions came half true; others, not at all. The only certainty is that the desire for a «no more apocalypse» clashes with a reality that, from time to time, does give reasons for dread. And as Kavafis said, what will become of us without barbarians? After all, they were a solution.

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